TED演讲：怎样从错误中学习(5)

My students produced these info-graphics 我的学生们制作了这些信息图表， as a result of a unit that we decided to do at the end of the year responding to the oil spill. 结果是我们决定以这个汇报作为我们学年的总结报告

TED演讲：温和的成功哲学(6)

I'm drawn to a lovely quote by St. Augustine in The City of God, where he says, It's a sin to judge any man by his post. 我很喜欢圣奥古斯丁在上帝之城里的一句话，他说，以社会地位评价人是一种罪。 In modern English th

TED演讲：温和的成功哲学(5)

You know, in the Middle Ages, in England, when you met a very poor person, that person would be described as an unfortunate 你知道，在中世纪的英国，当你遇见一个非常穷苦的人，你会认为他不走运， literally, somebody who

TED演讲：试验 排除错误和万能神力(3)

I'm not even telling you the story because I think we should be running more carefully controlled randomized trials in all aspects of public policy, 我跟你说这个故事也不是因为我认为，我们在公共政策的各个方面，做随机抽样

TED演讲：试验 排除错误和万能神力(4)

Well let me give you an example. 让我来给你们一个例子。 Imagine for a moment that, instead of Tim Harford in front of you, there was Hans Rosling presenting his graphs. 你们想象一下，现在如果站在你们面前的不是我，而是

TED演讲：试验 排除错误和万能神力(5)

Five thousand products -- that's still nothing. 5000个产品，这还没什么。 Five thousand products -- imagine counting every product category in Cesar Hidalgo's data. 5000个产品，想象我们来数塞萨尔伊达尔戈数据中的每个产品

TED演讲：试验 排除错误和万能神力(6)

So this is the complexity of the world that surrounds us. 所以这就是我们所处环境的复杂性。 This perhaps is why we find the God complex so tempting. 这也许正是为什么我们发现万能神力这么有吸引力的原因。 We tend

TED演讲：试验 排除错误和万能神力(7)

You pump it at a high pressure through a nozzle. You create a spray of detergent. 你用高压将它压过一个喷嘴，你制造了清洁剂喷雾。 Then the spray dries. It turns into powder. It falls to the floor. 喷雾干燥后就成了粉末，

TED演讲：试验 排除错误和万能神力(8)

We have no idea why it works, no idea at all. 我们不知道，为什么它那么高效，根本不知道。 And the moment you step back from the God complex -- let's just try to have a bunch of stuff; 当你不再认为自己有万能神力而是开

TED演讲：试验 排除错误和万能神力(9)

Now I've been sort of banging on about this for the last couple of months, 在过去的几个月里，我反复在讨论这个问题， and people sometimes say to me, Well Tim, it's kind of obvious. Obviously trial and error is very important. 有时有

TED演讲：试验 排除错误和万能神力(10)

Until then, until then I'm going to keep banging on about trial and error and why we should abandon the God complex. 到那时候，到那时候，我会继续讨论测试和排除错误这个话题，以及为什么我们需要抛弃万能神力的态

TED演讲：医生们会犯错误(11)

What they need is an environment to be able to do that. 他们只是需要一个场合来吐露心声。 What they need is a redefined medical culture. 他们需要的是一个重新定义的医学文化。 And it starts with one physician at a time.

TED演讲：试验 排除错误和万能神力(1)

It's the Second World War. A German prison camp. 这是二战期间，一个德国集中营。 And this man, Archie Cochrane, is a prisoner of war and a doctor, and he has a problem. 这个人，阿奇卡克伦，是战俘也是一名医生，他遇到

TED演讲：医生们会犯错误(2)

Now let's take this back into my world of medicine where I'm a lot more comfortable, 现在让我们回到我的世界，医疗领域。这个领域我比较熟悉， or perhaps a bit less comfortable after what I'm going to talk to you about. 但我接

TED演讲：医生们会犯错误(3)

And that was the message that I absorbed when I was in med school. 这就是我在医学院时得到的信息。 I was an obsessive compulsive student. 我是一个有着强迫症倾向的学生。 In high school, a classmate once said that Brian Gol

TED演讲：医生们会犯错误(4)

And that wasn't a difficult diagnosis to make. 这不是一个困难的诊断。 I made it and I set to work treating her. 作出诊断后我开始着手帮她治疗。 I gave her aspirin. I gave her medications to relieve the strain on her heart. 我开

TED演讲：医生们会犯错误(5)

So I signed the discharge papers, and an ambulance came, paramedics came to take her home. 我在出院单上签了名， 一辆救护车来后急救人员将她送回了家。 And I went back to my work on the wards. 之后我回到了我在诊所的工

TED演讲：医生们会犯错误(6)

And I was shocked and shaken to the core. 我震惊不已， 吓得不得了。 And I went through this roller coaster, because after they stabilized her, she went to the intensive care unit, and I hoped against hope that she would recover. 之后我的

TED演讲：医生们会犯错误(7)

And it wasn't because of my attending; he was a doll. 而这也不是因为我的主治；他人非常好。 He talked to the family, and I'm quite sure that he smoothed things over and made sure that I didn't get sued. 他和那家人好好的谈过。

TED演讲 医生们会犯错误(8)

And two days later I came to do my next emergency shift, and that's when my chief asked to speak to me quietly in her office. 两天后，又轮到我在急诊室值班。那时我的主任要我去她的办公室里私下谈谈。 And she said the t