CCTV9英语新闻11月：中国共产党第 3 次全体会议预期稳定金融改革

A key part of the meeting -- will be plans for financial reforms. While optimism from investors 1 has pushed up related stocks to feverish 2 highs, CCTV reporter Cheng Lei show us why the hype shouldn’t be part of those expectations.

For those expecting big surprises from the financial reform plans, they might be let down. Huang Yiping, professor at Peking University’s China Center for Economic Research, which is tasked with research to back up the reform plans, says by their very nature, the plans won’t be radical 3.

“Even if initially 4 aggressive, it’s reassessed by so many, viewpoint, reflected, final, well rounded document.” said Huang Yiping, Professor, China Center for Economic Research.

Of the tough nuts left to crack, its interest rates that may move first.

“Savings rates, interest rate within 12 months…” said Jerry Lou, Chief Strategy Officer, Morgan Stanley Huaxin Securities.

In contrast, opening up on the capital account, which means Chinese people would be able to invest overseas freely, may need to come later.

“Hardest, most dangerous, capital account, exchange rate reform, harder, to get there you need financial institutions to be more competitive.” said Chen Long, Professor, Cheung Kong Graduate School of Business.

But reform is already in the air and the entrepreneurs, who are among Chen’s students at the business school, are feeling it.

“Can feel the change of tone, in the first half, pessimistic, now changed, reforms including FTZ, the seed has been planted, but it may take much longer to see the fruit.” said Chen Long, Professor, Cheung Kong Graduate School of Business.

“Here on Beijing’s financial street, it takes me just minutes to walk from the securities regulator to the banking 5 regulator, but China’s top regulatory bodies have very different functions and interests, so pushing for coordinated 6 financial reform can be quite a challenge.” Said Cheng Lei, CCTV reporter in Beijing.

“Chinese government is a big administration, when they make big reform steps, may not have calculated every step carefully, especially the other administration’s steps, so these bumps happen from time to time.” said Jerry Lou, Chief Strategy Officer, Morgan Stanley Huaxin Securities.

What Jerry is most upbeat about is the de-risking that’s going on in the financial system and believes it will eventually translate into higher stocks.

“The market will gradually adapt to de-leveraging and de-risking, this will give us the path to sustainability, at one point -- maybe 2014, 2015, we’ll have very strong bull market.” said Jerry Lou, Chief Strategy Officer, Morgan Stanley Huaxin Securities.

The financial reforms package from the Third Plenum meetings may not shock and awe 7 -- but those who are bullish on China’s reforms -- recognize they’re not an end in itself -- but a thirty five year process that’s going to go much further in the next decade.