经济学人:深陷危机 泰国局势急转直下

 　　Thailand

　　泰国
　　Everything is broken
　　支离破碎
　　Long in crisis, Thailand is close to the brink 1. Without compromises on both sides, it may well collapse 2
　　深陷危机，泰国局势急转直下。对峙双方若互不让步，该国局势可能即将崩溃。
　　LOOK on and despair. A decade ago Thailand was a shining example—rare proof that in South-East Asia a vibrant 3 democracy could go hand-in-hand with a thriving economy. Contrast that with Thailand on May 7th, left in disarray 4 after the Constitutional Court demanded that the prime minister, Yingluck Shinawatra (pictured), step down with nine members of her cabinet over her decision to remove the country's head of national security in 2011, in favour of a relative.
　　泰国前景堪忧。十年以前，泰国还是东南亚国家中鲜少能够证明生机勃勃的政体可以和蓬勃发展的经济并驾齐驱的耀眼榜样。与昨日的辉煌相比，5月7日的泰国则是一片混乱。泰国总理英拉·西那瓦（如图）2011年让自己一位亲属取代现任国家安全部部长的决定使得宪法法院要求她与9名内阁成员辞去相应职务。
　　For all the pretence 5 of due legal process and distaste at Ms Yingluck's nepotism 6, this was not an offence that merited the ousting 7 of a prime minister. Instead, the ruling is a measure of quite how far Thailand has fallen, how deeply it is divided and how badly its institutions are broken. Unless Thais step back from the brink, their country risks falling into chaos 8 and anarchy 9, or outright 10 violence.
　　所有对于相应法定程序的托词以及英拉裙带关系的愤恨都不足以成为剥夺一国总理的理由。与之相反的是，国家的管理是衡量泰国落后他国有多远，分裂问题多么恶劣以及政体破坏多么严重的标准。除非泰国能够走出危机，否则该国面临着混乱的无政府状态或者激烈的暴力冲突的危险。
　　泰国.jpg
　　In kicking out Ms Yingluck, the court accomplished 11 what months of anti-government street protests in Bangkok, led by a firebrand populist, Suthep Thaugsuban, had failed to bring about. It is far from the first time the court has ruled against her. To break the impasse 12 on Bangkok's streets, she had called a February election, but the opposition 13 Democrat 14 Party boycotted 16 it, and the court struck down the results. Ms Yingluck had been limping on as a caretaker. The message for many Thais is that the court is on the side of a royalist establishment bent 17 on purging 18 politics of Ms Yingluck, who came to office three years ago in a landslide 19 election, and—especially—her brother, Thaksin Shinawatra, himself ousted 20 in a coup 21 in 2006 and now in self-imposed exile.
　　叛乱煽动者素贴?特素班在曼谷领导的反政府街头抗议数月以逼走英拉的任务由宪法法院完成了。这个情形远不及法院首次对英拉做出裁决的情况。为了打破曼谷街头抗议的僵局，她曾召集了一次二月选举，但是反对党民主党对此抵制抗议，而且法院扼杀了选举结果。英拉像一个临时代理人一般的艰难前行。在许多泰国人看来，法院支持建立一个君主主义制度以取代英拉政府统治。英拉三年前在一次压倒性的选举胜利中走上政坛。值得一提的是，英拉的哥哥塔克辛?西那瓦在2006年一次政变中下台，现在也无奈流落异乡。
　　The entire apparatus 22 of government has been sucked into the conflict between two visions of Thailand. For Mr Thaksin's supporters, his emergence 23 in 2001 marked a welcome break from decades of rule by corrupt 24 coalitions 25 or military juntas 26. Helped by a new democratic constitution in 1997, he gave a voice to Thailand's majority, many of them in his northern and north-eastern heartland. In their view, he transformed the lives of the poorest with health and education programmes, and he challenged Thailand's privileged elites 27 in the bureaucracy, the army, the judiciary and the palace corridors of an ailing 28 King Bhumibol Adulyadej. To the Thaksinites, both the recent street protests and the Constitutional Court's activism are the work of an establishment that cannot accept the results of the ballot 29 box: in 2001, 2005, 2006, 2007 and 2011 parties loyal to Mr Thaksin won elections fair and square, and Ms Yingluck's Pheu Thai party would have done so, too, in February.
　　泰国整个国家机制已经深陷于该国两种观点的冲突之中。对于素贴的支持者来说，2001年他的出现标志着几十年来腐败的党派勾结或者军队派别统治已被终结并迎来新的开始。1997年在一项新的民主体制的帮助下，他为泰国大多数人的利益振臂呐喊，这些人的大多数来自于他的北方地区和东北腹地。在他们看来，素贴通过医疗和教育计划改变了最贫困地区人们的生活，而且他勇于挑战泰国官僚体制下的特权阶级，军队，司法机关，以及体弱的泰国国王普密蓬?阿杜德代表的皇权阶层。在塔克辛拥护者眼里，最近的街头抗议以及宪法法院的动作都是由于反对党无法接受选举投票失败的结果：为塔克辛效劳的政党曾在2001，2005,2007以及2011年的大选中光明正大的获得选举，而英拉所在的泰党在2月份本也可以做到这样。
　　There is merit in this interpretation 30. But so is there in what the Shinawatras' enemies have to say. In particular, they charge that Thaksinite governments have been run for the benefit of his rural supporters (a mad scheme to subsidise rice threatens to bust 31 the budget) and of the billionaire himself. There is something creepy about the way that the exiled, unelected Mr Thaksin has been calling the shots from Dubai.
　　这种解释有其可取之处。但是这也是西那瓦家族的反对者所要说的。尤其是这些人指责塔克辛政府一直为他的农村支持者以及他这个亿万富翁谋求福利（一项补贴粮食危机来破坏预算的愚蠢计划）。对于被流放的，未经选举的塔克辛先生在迪拜暗中谋划的传闻听来也是十分可怖。
　　Now stalemate beckons 32. An election is supposed to happen. Ms Yingluck should have had the right to confront her undemocratic royalist foes 33 at the ballot box. But an election is no solution because the opposition will boycott 15 it. Mr Suthep has proposed a “people's council” of the great and the good, but Thaksinites will rightly see it as a stitch-up designed to keep them out. The irreconcilable 34 differences between the two sides have swallowed up Thailand's courts, its army and even the monarchy—and left Thailand at the abyss. Investors 35, having borne years of simmering discontent, are taking fright. Blood has already been spilled this year. The prospects 36 of wider violence are growing as Thaksinite supporters threaten conflict on the streets.
　　现在僵局仍然持续。该国应该进行新的选举。英拉应该通过选举来获得直面其非民主保皇主义反对者的权力。但是大选不是解决问题的方法，因为反对者仍将抵制选举。素贴应经提议为显要人物建立一个“人民议会”，但是塔克辛支持者会认为这是一个旨在将他们排除在外的圈套。敌对双方无法调和的差异已经湮没了泰国的法院，军队甚至整个君主政体，并让其陷入万劫不复之地。忍受满腹不满情绪多年的投资者也整天惶惶不可终日。满腔热血已在今年挥洒殆尽。随着塔克辛支持者扬言街头冲突，更大范围内的暴力活动将会愈演愈烈。
　　Stop and think
　　停战深思
　　If Thailand is to avoid that catastrophe 37, both sides must now step back from the brink. The starting point is the devolution of Thailand's highly centralised system of governance. At the moment only the capital has a democratically elected governor, yet all 76 provinces should also have one—this would not only help a rumbling 38 Muslim insurgency 39 in the south, it would also offer a prize to Mr Suthep, because the winner of the national election would no longer win all the power. In return for this reform, the Democrat Party must pledge to accept election results; and in return for that, the Pheu Thai should run without a Shinawatra at the helm.
　　如果泰国想要避免灾祸，对峙双方必须在局势崩溃之前各退一步。首先要做的就是要将泰国高度集中的管理权力下放。目前只有该国首都拥有一个民主选举的管理者，而其他的76个省 份也应该有这样的管理者——这不仅可以协助解决日渐激烈的南方穆斯林暴乱，还将会为素贴带来额外之喜，因为小全国大选的获胜者将不再是大权独握。作为这场改革的回报， 民主党必须保证接受选举结果；而为了回报这个结果，泰党应该在没有西那瓦家族成员掌权的情况下运行。
　　Goodwill 40 is in short supply in Thailand today. Yet by fighting on, the two sides risk bringing ruination to their country. Compromise would, by comparison, be a small price to pay.
　　在今日的泰国，友好善意是如此稀缺。而双方持续对峙面临着给国家带来巨大祸端的风险。通过对比，双方的妥协让步将会是比较小的代价。
　　1.in favour of 赞成；支持
　　例句:The newspaper is now weighted in favour of trivia.
　　这份报纸如今倾向于报道一些花边消息。
　　2.fail to 未能；不能
　　例句:Many of Britain's beaches fail to meet minimum standards of cleanliness.
　　英国许多海滩连最起码的卫生标准都达不倒。
　　3.come to 苏醒；达到；来到
　　例句:I do hope you'll be able to come to the wedding.
　　我确实希望你能来参加婚礼。
　　4.loyal to 忠于；忠诚于
　　例句:They were unflinchingly loyal to their friends.
　　他们对朋友忠贞不渝。