经济学人447:土耳其总统 高高在上的埃尔多安

 　　Turkey's president

　　土耳其总统
　　Erdogan on top
　　高高在上的埃尔多安
　　It would be better for Turkey if the presidency 1 remained mainly ceremonial
　　土耳其的总统职务保持礼仪性岂不是更好
　　RECEP TAYYIP ERDOGAN, Turkey's prime minister, certainly knows how to win elections. Since he helped to found the Justice and Development (AK) party 13 years ago, he has scored eight victories in a row. On August 10th he made it nine, winning Turkey's first direct election to the presidency, with a crushing 52% of the vote. Given what have been broadly fair polls, with mostly high turnouts, nobody can seriously challenge Mr Erdogan's democratic credentials 2.
　　自从13年前他帮助筹建了正义发展党（AK）后， 他便连续8次赢得大选。因此，土耳其首相埃尔多安当然知道如何赢得大选。8月10日，他再次获胜，以52%选票的压倒性优势赢得土耳其第一届总统直接选举。鉴于选举一直是广泛公平的，投票率高，没人能真正地质疑埃尔多安的民主资质。
　　His achievements in over 11 years as prime minister are equally impressive. Since AK came to power in November 2002, economic growth has averaged some 5%. Inflation has been tamed. The army has been brought under greater civilian 3 control. Mr Erdogan has made more progress than any previous political leader in giving Turkey's Kurds greater rights. In 2005 he achieved something that had eluded 4 all his predecessors 5: the start of membership talks with the European Union.
　　11年来，他作为首相的成绩同样斐然。自2002年AK党执政以来，经济年均增长5%左右，通胀得到抑制，军队管理十分民主。与土耳其之前的领导相比，在给予土耳其库尔德人更大的权利方面，他取得了更多的进步。2005年，他成就了一件足以让其他前任相形见绌的伟绩：开启加入欧盟的谈判。
　　土耳其总统.jpg
　　What makes this more troubling are Mr Erdogan's plans to give the presidency, hitherto a ceremonial job, far more power. He wants to turn it into an executive position, as in France. To do this he must change the constitution, which usually needs a two-thirds majority in parliament. AK is unlikely to achieve that on its own, but it could secure enough votes by doing a deal with the Kurdish party. That would put Mr Erdogan in sight of his goal of an enhanced presidency, backed by a pliable 6 prime minister, in which he could stay up to and beyond 2023, the centenary of Ataturk's republic.
　　然而，当埃尔多安意图给予总统这一礼仪性的职位更多权力时，这件事情就变动的不那么简单了。他想将总统职位转变成行政职务，如法国一样。为了达到这一目的，他必须修改宪法，而这需要议会2/3的多数同意。AK党不太可能只身实现这一目标，但是与库尔德党派合作则可能获得足够的票数。而此举，则会使埃尔多安对总统职权加强这一意图昭然若揭。表面上是无所事事的总理，这一职位他可以保持到2023年，恰好是土耳其共和国的百年纪念。
　　Such an outcome is unappealing to those who believe in political pluralism. Powerful presidencies 7 can work, but they need to be constrained 8 by strong institutions of a sort Turkey still lacks. Mr Erdogan's own autocratic tendencies compound this problem. But why should he pay any heed 9? There are two answers: a vulnerable economy and his own legacy 10.
　　这样的结果对于那些信奉政治多元化的人来说毫无吸引力。强大的总统职权可以发挥作用，但是他们需要的是强有力的凝聚力的约束，而这正是土耳其所缺少的。埃尔多安的独裁趋势使这一问题更加复杂。但是，他为什么要在意这些问题呢?原因有二：经济脆弱，个人政治遗产。
　　The biggest reason for Mr Erdogan's poll victories is his delivery of rapidly rising living standards. But the economy is slowing. A gaping 11 current-account deficit 12 makes the country highly dependent on capital inflows; when global interest rates rise, Turkey could suffer. And it is caught in a “middle-income trap”, losing competitiveness in the basic goods it produces, but unable to move up to higher-tech ones. To keep growing, Turkey needs both liberalising reforms and foreign capital. Mr Erdogan has shown scant 13 interest in reform. And although foreign investors 14 stomach autocratic regimes around the world, they don't much care for social instability of the sort that Mr Erdogan's type of polarising politics usually portends 15.
　　埃尔多安选举获胜的最重要因素是他迅速提高了土耳其人的生活水平。但是，经济发展依然缓慢。目前财政赤字的漏洞高度依赖流入的资本，一旦国际利率上调，土耳其就得遭殃。而且，土耳其目前正面临“中等收入困境”，生产的日用品失去竞争力，但又无法像高科技顶端转移。为了保持增长，土耳其不仅需要自由化改革，还要外资注入。埃尔多安对改革已经极力反对。尽管世界范围内，外资与独裁政权水火不容，但外商们也不会在乎埃尔多安的极权政治导致的经常性社会动荡。
　　The hope that Turkey will one day join the EU has also kept investors interested. This is where Mr Erdogan ought to think of his legacy. Building giant infrastructure 16 projects is all very well, but if he is to underpin 17 Turkey's modernisation he needs to pull it back onto its European course. EU membership is a remote prospect 18 just now, but moving away from Europe's liberal democratic norms will make it an impossibility.
　　期待某天土耳其加入欧盟的愿望也让投资者们兴趣大增。这就是埃尔多安应该考虑的他留给土耳其的遗产。大兴土木虽然无过，但如果他想为土耳其的现代化奠基，则应该将土耳其拉回欧洲发展的轨道。欧盟成员国的身份目前为时尚早，但偏离欧洲自由民主的规则会使这以目标更加遥不可及。
　　Gul, not Putin
　　古尔，不是普京
　　The first test of Mr Erdogan's intentions will be the choice of prime minister. This week Turkey's outgoing president, Abdullah Gul, threw his hat into the ring (see article). Not only is Mr Gul widely respected, both at home and abroad, but he has also briefly 19 held the job before. Moreover, as a co-founder of the AK party, he has enough political clout 20 of his own to stand up to Mr Erdogan. Mr Erdogan should accept that a strong prime minister would be better for Turkey. If he insists on having a puppet instead, people may start to compare him not to Ataturk but to his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin.
　　埃尔多安的意图面临的第一项考验便是总理的人选。本周，土耳其即将卸任的总统——阿卜杜拉?古尔宣布参与竞选。古尔不仅在国内外广受尊崇，而且之前也出任过一段时间的总统。再者，作为AK党的共同创立者，他拥有足够的政治影响力与埃尔多安抗衡。埃尔多安应该接受这一点，即一位强大的总理更适合土耳其。如果他坚持将此视为傀儡，民众将开始把他比作俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔普京，而非与土耳其国父阿塔图尔克相提并论。