经济学人389:欧洲移民 胜利大逃亡

 　　European migration 1

　　欧洲移民
　　The great escape
　　胜利大逃亡
　　Emigration may not relieve pressure on wages in weak economies
　　在经济疲软的背景下，欧洲人移民国外也许不能在工资方面缓解压力
　　Purchasing power on the move
　　购买力在移动
　　TO ECONOMISTS 2, an “optimal currency area” is one in which the gains from sharing a single currency outweigh 3 the costs. There is some debate as to whether the euro area qualifies.
　　对于经济学家来说，一个“最优货币区”意味着共用同一种货币的收益要大于成本。欧元区是否符合“最优货币区”的条件，存在一些争议。
　　欧洲移民.jpg
　　Among the keys to making shared currencies work, according to Robert Mundell, the godfather of optimal-currency theory, is a mobile workforce 4. Countries tying the monetary 5 knot give up the right to slash 6 interest rates or devalue when stormclouds gather. A slump 7 focused on just one region of the currency zone can therefore last a long time: until falling wages make hiring there attractive once more. But if the jobless can up sticks for sunnier shores, this discomfort 8 can be curbed 9.
　　根据最优货币理论的鼻祖，罗伯特.蒙代尔的理论，流动的劳动力是从统一货币的政策中获利的关键。当不利的经济信号显现时，参与实施统一货币政策的众多国家将放弃削减利率或干预货币贬值的权力。在统一货币区内，经济衰退集中在一个地区，因此，这种经济衰退会持续很长一段时间，直到这个地区的工资下降，使得招聘启事再次具有吸引力。但是如果失业者可以迁居到经济状况较好的地区，这种经济衰退就可以得到抑制。
　　In the 1990s a few prescient critics noted 10 that “fluidity” was not a characteristic commonly used to describe European labour markets. Just 0.35% of Europeans migrate across borders each year, compared with the nearly 2.5% of Americans leaving one state for another. The crisis boosted euro-area migration rates, but overall numbers remain small.
　　20世纪90年代，几位有先见之明的评论家指出，“流动性”指标不常用来说明欧洲劳动力市场特征。每年跨国迁移的欧洲人仅有0.35%，而有近2.5%的美国人跨州迁移，两者相比，前者迁移人数很少。经济危机提升了欧元区的人口迁移比率，但总体迁移人数并不多。
　　Immobility might not always be quite the drag academics fear, however. New research by Emmanuel Farhi of Harvard University and Iván Werning of MIT finds that although migrants out of depressed 11 regions get the expected boost from relocation, those left behind may or may not benefit, depending on the nature of the slump.
　　然而，人口流动停滞也许并不总是那么让学者们担心。在一项新开展的研究中，哈佛大学的Emmanuel Farhi和麻省理工的Iván Werning发现，尽管人们从经济萧条地区迁移出去可以按照预期推动迁居地的经济发展，但原住地是否能从中获益，这取决于经济衰退的性质。
　　The problem, they note, is that departing migrants take their purchasing power with them when they go. If a region's troubles are the result of tumbling exports that is no big deal. Exporting surplus labour spares the struggling economy the need to suffer falling wages.
　　他们指出，问题是，移民者的离去使得原住地失去了这部分人群的购买力。如果一个地区的困扰是出口严重下滑的结果，这没什么大不了的。出口剩余的劳动力使得疲弱的经济不必再遭受工资下降的打击。
　　If instead the struggling region is facing weak domestic demand then shipping 12 excess labour abroad does not help, because the loss of migrants' spending further weakens demand. Instead, higher exports are needed to make up for insufficient 13 domestic spending. That requires improved competitiveness—which often means lower wages.
　　如果情况相反，经济疲弱地区正面临的是内需不足，再向国外输出过剩劳动力就无益了，因为若失去这部分移民者的购买力，则会进一步削弱内需。取而代之的解决方案应该是，需要更高的出口来弥补国内消费不足。这就需要提高竞争力，而提高竞争力通常意味着低工资。
　　Interestingly, however much their lot improves when they move, migrants tend to judge their fortunes relative to economic conditions at home. According to a new working paper from the Institute for the Study of Labour, a German think-tank, migrants to Germanybecome glummer 14 the better the economy in their country of origin does. But they cheer up considerably 15 when unemployment rises at home, presumably because that confirms the wisdom of having moved. By then, they have perhaps been in Germanylong enough to learn the word Schadenfreude.
　　有趣的是，迁移过程中，无论移民者的生活怎样改善，他们都倾向于依据家乡的经济状况来评判自己的财富状况。根据一个德国智囊团，劳动力研究所的一份新的工作报告，迁入德国的移民变得愈加愁苦，他们本国的经济就变得愈好。但是当发现本国失业率上升，他们就明显振作起来，大概是因为这证明了自己当初移民是明智的抉择。到那时，他们也许已经在德国居住了很久，以至于都学会了“幸灾乐祸”这类德语单词。