金融世界 第十一讲(有声)
The government as manager
在这一讲中我们要谈的话题是:The government as manager, 政府对经济的管理,以及经济学家对凯恩斯经济学理论的不同看法。
英国著名经济学家凯恩斯 John Maynard Keynes 在1936年出版了他划时代的巨著 The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money -“就业,利息和货币通论”,提出“有效需求不足”的理论思想,被经济学界看作是一场理论革命。他的理论是宏观经济学的经典,至今仍然影响着各国经济政策的制定和当代经济理论的发展。
下面我们要听一下美国哈佛大学经济学教授格雷格曼奇对凯恩斯的理论做的介绍。在收听他的谈话之前,我们先来熟悉一下他在谈话中使用的几个词汇:
1 The General Theory 通论,对凯恩斯著作“就业,利息和货币通论”的简称
2 recession 衰退
3 Great Depression 大萧条,指1929年到1930年代初期世界性严重经济衰退
4 inadequate 1 demand for goods and services 对商品和服务的需求不足
美国哈佛大学曼奇教授对凯恩斯理论做了这样的简单介绍:
Keynes's work essentially 2 changed the way economists 3 view the functioning of the economy. It really is traced to Keynes' great book The General Theory, which in 1936 provided a new way for us to think about booms and recessions.
曼奇说,凯恩斯的研究基本上改变了经济学家有关经济运转的观念。这可以一直追溯到凯恩斯的伟大著作 “通论”。这本书在1936年为我们研究繁荣与衰退提供了新的方法。
It's important to keep in mind when he was writing, he was writing essentially in the midst of a Great Depression, a situation where roughly a quarter of the labour force was unemployed 4 in the United States and other developed countries.
重要的是要记住他写作这本书的年代。他基本上是在大萧条期间进行的写作,而大萧条期间美国和其他发达国家都有大约四分之一的劳动力失业。
And this was an event that economists had a lot of trouble coming to grips with, trying to understand, trying to come up with policy recommedations to deal with.
许多经济学家绞尽脑汁来研究大萧条,试图弄清楚它的来龙去脉,试图找到对付大萧条的方法。
I think the central idea in Keyes' general theory is that recessions, or depressions, result from inadequate demand for goods and services. Essentially people in governments and firms aren't spending enough and that's why so many people are unemployed.
我认为凯恩斯通论的中心思想是:衰退或萧条是由对商品和服务的需求不足造成的。基本上是说,政府和公司花费得不够,因此有许多人失业。
And what Keyens' theory was to do was basically to show how that could work and to show what governments could do to try to prop 5 up demand for goods and services and get economies out of recessions and depressions.
凯恩斯的理论基本上是要证明如何这才能行得通以及政府可以采取什么行动来促进对商品和服务的需求,使经济摆脱衰退和萧条。
下面我们完整听一遍美国哈佛大学经济学教授曼奇对凯恩斯学说作的这段解释。(略)
尽管凯恩斯理论对各国政府的货币政策和财政收支政策都曾产生过重大的影响,但曼奇教授指出,受到最直接影响的是财政收支政策。他说:
It's probably most obvious in fiscal 6 policy, because that's where Keynes argues, essentially, that the problem of the Great Depression could be solved most easily with fiscal policy. So there's a lot of examples in the US's and other countries' histories that were essentially applications of Keynes' ideas.
For example when John Kennedy came to the White House one of the first things he wanted to do was to cut taxes in order to stimulate 7 the economy. And the arguments that he gave were essentially textbook Keynesian arguments.
下面我们分段听一遍曼奇教授的这段谈话和中文翻译:(英文略)
财政收支政策受到的影响大概最为明显,因为凯恩斯基本上认为可以通过(调整)财政收支政策来最容易地解决大萧条的问题。因此在美国和其他国家的历史上就有了许多实际上实施凯恩斯理论的例证。
比如约翰肯尼迪入主白宫,首先作的就是减税以刺激经济发展。他提出的理由从本质上来说就是规范的凯恩斯理论。
下面我们把曼奇教授的这段谈话原文再听一遍。(略)
到了二次世界大战结束时,世界上许多国家的政府都接受了凯恩斯的主张。澳大利亚、英国、美国等国政府都纷纷承担起追求完全就业和经济稳定的责任。
然而,即便是在凯恩斯理论的黄金时代,它也一直受到质疑。1976年获诺贝尔奖的美国著名经济学家弗里德曼教授就是对凯恩斯理论持批评意见的学者之一。在下一讲中我们要为您介绍弗里德曼教授的经济理论观点。
接下来我们再复习一下今天涉及的一些英语词汇:
1 John Maynard Keynes 凯恩斯,英国著名经济学家,生于1883年,卒于1946年。
2 The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money,“就业,利息和货币通论”
3 The General Theory,通论,对凯恩斯著作“就业,利息和货币通论”的简称
4 recession 衰退
5 Great Depression 大萧条,指1929年到1930年代初期世界性严重经济衰退
6 inadequate demand for goods and services 对商品和服务的需求不足
在结束这一讲之前,我们把美国哈佛大学经济学教授格雷格曼奇关于凯恩斯理论的谈话再听一遍。(略)
这次由澳洲广播电台Radio Australia中文部为您制作的金融世界节目到这里就结束了,谢谢您的收听。
- The supply is inadequate to meet the demand.供不应求。
- She was inadequate to the demands that were made on her.她还无力满足对她提出的各项要求。
- Really great men are essentially modest.真正的伟人大都很谦虚。
- She is an essentially selfish person.她本质上是个自私自利的人。
- The sudden rise in share prices has confounded economists. 股价的突然上涨使经济学家大惑不解。
- Foreign bankers and economists cautiously welcomed the minister's initiative. 外国银行家和经济学家对部长的倡议反应谨慎。 来自《简明英汉词典》
- There are now over four million unemployed workers in this country.这个国家现有四百万失业人员。
- The unemployed hunger for jobs.失业者渴望得到工作。
- A worker put a prop against the wall of the tunnel to keep it from falling.一名工人用东西支撑住隧道壁好使它不会倒塌。
- The government does not intend to prop up declining industries.政府无意扶持不景气的企业。