经济学人335:叙利亚内战 艰难时刻

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Syria's civil war

叙利亚内战

Desperate times

艰难时刻

A conference on Syria is not enough. The West should also arm the rebels

叙利亚问题远非一项会议可以解决，西方国家还应该为反对派提供武装援助

NOBODY thinks that the Geneva negotiations 1, which began on January 22nd after months of effort, will bring peace right away.

经过数月努力后，日内瓦会议于1月22日召开，没人相信此次调解会立即带来和平。

2_副本.jpgBut with civil war raging inside Syria, just getting people around the same table feels like progress; and, it is argued, the talks might lay the ground for negotiations that may one day lead to a ceasefire, or even to power changing hands.

然而，由于叙利亚国内战争甚嚣尘上，单是将双方集结到一张桌子上已属不易。而且，据称，此次对话可能为之后的谈判奠定基础，以实现最终的停火，甚至是权利交接。

Meanwhile, they can broker 2 local truces 3 and get relief to Syrians dying for lack of food and medicine.

同时，这次的对话还可以调解地方冲突以求和平，为缺少食物和药物的叙利亚人送去援助。

Anything that would alleviate 4 Syria's plight 5 is welcome.

任何有助于缓解叙利亚困境的行动都是受欢迎的。

But if America and Europe are serious about helping 6 Syria, they should arm the rebels fighting the regime.

但是，如果美国和欧洲国家真相帮助叙利亚，他们应该武装反对派，打击政权。

Out-thinking, out-manoeuvring, inhuman 7

先发制人，惨无人道

That is a message people do not want to hear.

世人并不想听到这样的消息。

Then again, neither do they want to face up to the brutality 8 inside Bashar Assad's prisons.

同样，他们也不忍直视巴萨尔阿萨德监狱里的残暴。

This is not casual thuggery but, as a security official who defected from the regime with thousands of horrific photographs has revealed, an audited 9 policy of official terror administered on an industrial scale.

这并非一般的暗杀，而是一名安保人员，背叛组织后惨遭杀害，几千张惊恐的图片披露了这一行径，一项官方恐怖的审计政策以工业规模展开。

The violence Mr Assad has used has driven reason and tolerance 10 out of what was one of the Middle East's most integrated countries.

总统阿萨德的暴行使原本团结的中东国家失去了理性和包容。

Well over 100,000 people have died and millions have fled their homes.

10万多人丧生，数百万人流离失所。

The hatred 11 is spreading to Lebanon and Iraq.

仇恨正向蔓延黎巴嫩和伊拉克。

The Geneva gathering 12 cannot drain such an ocean of suffering and wrongdoing. It is built on the premise 13 that Mr Assad will relinquish 14 power through a transitional government.

日内瓦会议无法化解这无边的苦海和冤屈，除非总统阿萨德能够放弃权力，组件临时政府。

But why should he?

但是，他这么做理由何在呢？

He believes he is winning. He is holding his own against rebel attacks, or even gaining territory.

他认为他正在获得胜利。他正在尽全力对抗反对派，甚至扩张领土。

The programme to eliminate his chemical arsenal 15, imposed after he murdered about 1,000 civilians 16 in a nerve-agent attack, has turned him into a partner of the West.

在他屠杀了1000多手无寸铁的平民后，联合国决议决定销毁他的化学武器，但这却使他成为西方国家的一员。

He set out to radicalise the rebels, releasing jihadists from his jails early in the conflict.

他决意激怒反对派，在冲突开始早些时候释放了圣战者。

This programme has been so successful that Western voters now think the rebels are as vile 17 as Mr Assad.

这一激将法十分奏效，西方国家目前认为反对派同阿萨德一样邪恶。

Geneva could even get in the way of peace.

可以说，日内瓦会议妨碍了和平进程。

The humanitarian 18 aid that may come from the talks is desperately 19 needed by Syrians, but it comes at a cost, because UN aid agencies will, again, depend on Mr Assad for co-operation.

叙利亚人亟需和谈中可能达成的人道援助，但是这些援助却不是免费的午餐，因为联合国援助机构会再次依靠阿萨德的合作。

Peace is almost impossible unless Iran, Mr Assad's biggest backer, also leans on the regime.

除非伊朗—阿萨德最大的支持者，也支持这一政权，否则，叙利亚和平只能是泡影。

Yet Iran was barred from the conference only hours after having been invited, because it will not sign up to the condition that he surrenders power.

然而，伊朗在接受邀请数小时后就被拒绝参加会议，因为该国不同意阿萨德交出政权。

To cynics, Geneva is a device that lets everyone pretend to have a Syria policy even when they don't.

对批评人士来说，日内瓦会议只是权宜之计，让所有人误以为叙利亚问题有方法解决，实则是无计可施。

That may be deft 20 diplomacy 21, but it is a licence for inaction, and the price is counted in Syrian suffering.

于外交来说，这一招妙不可言，但却使不作为获得了许可，而且代价在叙利亚伤亡中显而易见。

As talks drag on, Russia and Iran will continue to boost Mr Assad's strength.

由于谈判一再拖延，俄罗斯和伊朗将继续为阿萨德提供援助。

It would be wrong to let the balance tilt 22 so far that he can dictate 23 terms.

力量失衡如此严重，让阿萨德可以为所欲为，实属下策。

The best way to break the deadlock 24 would be for the West to arm and train selected rebels, as it should have done almost from the start of the violence.

打破僵局的最好办法是西方武装和训练精挑细选的反对派，战争开始之初就应该这样做。

Many fear that the beneficiary of money, equipment and arms would be al-Qaeda, which matches only Mr Assad in its contempt for human life and Western democracy.

许多人担心钱财、设备和武器最后会落到基地组织手里，他们残害生命和打击西方政策的行径与阿萨德不相上下。

But over the past few weeks that risk has diminished, as nationalist Sunni groups, including devout 25 Islamists, have turned against the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham, an al-Qaeda affiliate 26.

但是，在过去的几个星期里，风险已经降低，因为民族主义者逊尼派，包括虔诚的伊斯兰教徒，已与伊斯兰教国家伊拉克和ISIS反目，后者是基地组织的一个分支。

Not only are arms and money less likely to end up in the wrong hands, but the nicer rebels—even if they are not the most reliable or savoury allies—are the front line against ISIS, whose sectarian poison threatens the entire region.

不仅武器和钱不太可能落入贼手，稍显仁慈的反对派—即使他们不是最可靠、最适合的同盟者，却在前线对抗ISIS，其派别纷争威胁着整个地区。

Even with more outside help, the rebels are not about to defeat Mr Assad.

即使外援增加，反对派也无意于扳倒阿萨德。

But turning the tide of the fighting might shift the negotiations, too.

然而，转移斗争的矛头可能会影响谈判。

If the regime is under pressure on the battlefield, it may be more willing to negotiate a proper ceasefire, or even, if people are tired of war, Mr Assad's departure.

如果政权在战场上饱受压力，阿萨德可能更乐意协议停火，或者，人们厌倦了战争，阿萨德会选择放弃。

Moreover Iran can ill afford to finance a stalemate.

而且，如果伊朗意图不轨，大可继续为其提供援助，维持僵局。

When it has had enough of pouring money into Mr Assad's seemingly endless conflict, it may be willing to argue for peace.

待到有足够的金钱支持阿萨德似乎无休止的战争时，伊朗可能会求和。

Some say that if outsiders continue to help the rebels, they will condemn 27 Syria to even more suffering.

有人认为，如果外界继续帮助反对派，可能会使叙利亚的苦难更加深重。

That is possible.

这一点并非不可能。

But the brutality Mr Assad has practised against his own people strengthens the case for trying to tip the balance of power against him, and the best way to persuade his backers to withdraw their aid is if the West has money on the table, too.

然而，阿萨德对其人们施行的暴政使外界决意使力量的天平向对方倾斜，而且劝退其支持者的最好办法便是，西方国家也提供援助。

One thing is certain: if either Mr Assad or al-Qaeda prevails, Syria will continue to suffer for a very long time.

一件事可以肯定：无论阿萨德或基地组织任一方胜出，未来很长一段时间里，叙利亚都将继续处于水深火热中煎熬。

1.lack of 缺乏

Another problem was the lack of competition.

另一个问题是缺乏竞争。

Her lack of experience is a severe disability.

她缺少经验是一个严重的障碍。

2.face up 面对，担当

But one country has yet to face up to its changed circumstances.

但是，欧元区仍有一个国家尚未勇敢面对物是人非的外部环境。

Managers must face up to its existence and influence.

管理者必须正视它的存在和影响。

3.spread to 蔓延到；波及

The crisis threatened to spread to china.

这场危机甚至波及了中国。

The mayhem spread to other parts of the city.

混乱也蔓延到了曼谷市的其他地区。

4.set out to 打算，着手

The screenwriter set out to explore the ways in which different people face demanding times.

剧本作者一开始是要探讨不同的人面对艰难时期的方式。

He has set out to make salesforce a more generous and efficient donor 28 than any other firm.

现在贝尼奥夫已经开始让salesforce公司成为一个比别的公司更慷慨、更有效率的慈善家。