经济学人376:俄罗斯商业 每况愈下

　　Business in Russia

俄罗斯商业

From bad to worse

每况愈下

Domestic and foreign firms wonder how serious things might get

国内外的企业都想知道境况将会变得多严峻

BEFORE the current standoff between the Kremlin and the West over Ukraine, it was already clear that Russia's economic model, of strong energy exports fuelling domestic consumption, was running out of steam. In 2007, on the eve of the global financial crisis, Russia's economy grew by 8.5%. Last year growth was a meagre 1.3%.

如今，克里姆林宫正与西方就乌克兰问题僵持不下，而远在这场风波之前，人们就可以清楚地看到俄罗斯这种以大量出口资源带动国内消费的经济模式已是日薄西山。遥想在全球经济危机七夕的2007年，俄罗斯的经济增长水平高达8.5%，而去年这一数字却只有3%。

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Still, the country's population of 144m, its entry into the World Trade Organisation 1, its consumers' aspiration 2 to a Western lifestyle and its status as the “R” in the BRICs have persuaded multinationals 3 to keep investing in plants in Russia, and foreign investors 4 to keep providing capital to Russian firms. The attitude until recently, says Alexis Rodzianko of the American Chamber 5 of Commerce in Moscow, was that “Russia's economy may be slowing, but my own prospects 6 are pretty good.”

然而，俄罗斯是一个拥有1.44亿人口的金砖大国，不久前还加入了世贸组织，其国民也很向往西方的消费方式。这一切都促使跨国公司马不停蹄地在俄投资建厂，国外投资者也不断向其国内的公司输送资金。莫斯科美国商会会长罗德辛柯（Alexis Rodzianko）不久前表达了他的看法：“俄罗斯的经济可能是在放慢脚步，但我本人对其还是抱有很大的期望。”

Now the outlook for businesses there is looking gloomier. With pro-Russian separatists seizing government buildings in eastern Ukraine, amid talk of a full-scale invasion, firms of all kinds fear a tightening 7 of American-led sanctions, a cut-off of foreign lending and investment, and a further fall in consumers' confidence.

现在，人们对俄罗斯企业的发展前景感到更悲观了。乌克兰东部的亲俄分离主义者占领了多处政府机关建筑，关于“全面入侵”乌克兰问题的会谈也正在进行中，俄罗斯国内所有的公司都担心以美国为首的国家会对加大对俄制裁力度，削减对俄的贷款与投资，致使国内的消费者进一步失去信心。

The most immediate 8 concern, especially for Western firms doing business in and with Russia, is the curbs 9 the United States and the European Union have imposed on dealings with certain individuals. Even the somewhat stronger American sanctions imposed so far are, on paper, “pretty limited”, says Alexander Kliment of Eurasia Group, a risk-analysis firm. But they have created a “scare factor” that is magnifying their effect. For example, shares in Novatek, a gas producer, fell sharply when the restrictions 10 were announced, on fears it might struggle to do deals with foreign partners or raise capital abroad because Gennady Timchenko, a friend of Vladimir Putin's named on the American sanctions list, owns 23% of the company and sits on its board. If Igor Sechin, the boss of Rosneft, another energy firm, is sanctioned, the effect may be similar.

美国和欧盟已经对与俄罗斯特定人物的交易实施了限制，这是驻俄的和与俄有业务往来的西方公司所要面对的最迫切的难题。风险评估公司欧亚集团（Eurasia Group）的风险评估员克利门特（Alexander Kliment）称，仅从字面上看，尽管是相对更严厉的美国方面的制裁作用似乎“十分有限”，但是它们已经催生出了一些“恐惧因素”，从而放大了其效力。比方说，普京的朋友，拥有天然气生产商诺瓦泰克公司（Novatek）23%股份的季姆琴科（Gennady Timchenko）被列入了美国的制裁名单；制裁令甫一发出，Novatek的股价便急剧下降，因为人们担心制裁会成为其进行国际贸易与融资的绊脚石。如果另一家的能源企业俄罗斯石油公司（Rosneft）的老板也被制裁，其公司的股价也会有下降之虞。

Foreign firms fret 11 that sanctions could also create openings for competitors. American firms worry that the EU's softer curbs may give its companies more flexibility 12. The boss of Siemens, a German engineering giant, met Mr Putin in Moscow last month. Americans and Europeans alike worry about losing out to Asian rivals. Moscow business circles are full of rumours 13 of Chinese executives trying to peel off contracts by urging Russian companies not to depend on Western ones, given the possibility of further trading restrictions.

外国企业同样担心制裁会给它们的竞争对有可乘之机。美国的企业担心欧盟方面较宽松的制裁会欧洲的企业有空子可钻。上个月，德国电气巨头西门子（Siemens）的老板在去莫斯科拜访了普京。欧美的企业共同的顾虑则是它们会在竞争中输给亚洲的对手。莫斯科的商业圈充斥着这样的谣言，说中国企业为了获得与俄罗斯公司的合同，正敦促俄罗斯公司不要太依赖西方公司，因为贸易限制还可能会继续增加。

Russian firms and politicians, in turn, are casting around Asia and elsewhere for new customers to replace those they fear losing from the West. Russia's deputy prime minister, Arkady Dvorkovich, said this week that the government hoped to finalise soon a long-promised deal for Gazprom to sell gas to China. Rosneft is seeking to treble its exports of oil to China. Sukhoi, a state-owned aircraft-maker 14, has just struck a deal to sell a fleet of small passenger jets to a Chinese airline, hoping this will offset 15 any loss of orders from Western carriers. But its plane, the Superjet, is chock full of key parts from American and European suppliers, and thus its production is vulnerable to any tightening of sanctions.

而另一方面，因害怕将来会失去西方的客户俄罗斯的公司也在亚洲和其他地区寻找新客户。本周，俄罗斯副总理达瓦科维奇(Arkady Dvorkovich)称，俄政府希望可以尽快为俄罗斯国家天然气公司（Gazprom）敲定一笔向中国出售天然气的长期合同。俄罗斯石油公司（Rosneft）也正在设法使其出口到中国的石油销量犯上三番。俄罗斯国营飞机制造上苏霍伊（Sukhoi）不久前也与中国某航空公司达成了一笔销售小型客机的协议，期望以此抵消其因与西方航空公司之间订单减少造成的损失。但是苏霍伊生产的喷气式飞机的重要零部件大部分都来自欧美，所以一旦制裁收紧，其产能将受到极大影响。

For domestic firms, a bigger worry than the sanctions imposed so far is the risk of losing access to foreign loans, and what that will mean for investment, productivity and growth, says Elena Anankina of Standard & Poor's, a ratings agency. Western lenders are likely to honour existing loan deals. But they may be reluctant to provide fresh financing. Rusal, an indebted aluminium 16 producer, is among the Russian firms most exposed to this. Some state banks, such as Sberbank and VTB, have indicated they are ready to fill the gap left by Western lenders. But Ms Anankina wonders how long they will be able to do so. Indeed, some Russian banks themselves depend on Western loans. With capital flight hitting 60-70 billion in the first quarter of this year alone, investment in domestic production—what the spluttering economy needs most of all—will be even harder to come by.

标准普尔（Standard & Poor's）分析师Elena Anankina称，对于俄罗斯的本土企业，比起目前的这些禁令，更令它们是未来失去国外融资渠道的风险。西方的贷方可能会完成目前的贷款协议，但是不会愿意提供新一轮的贷款。在俄罗斯众多可能受此问题影响公司中，负债累累的俄罗斯铝业公司（Rusal）可谓首当其冲。俄罗斯的一些国家银行——如Sberbank和VTB——表示，它们已经准备好去填补西方贷款机构离去后留下的空白。但是Anankina怀疑这些银行不能坚持很长时间。事实上，一些俄罗斯银行自身还需要依靠外国资本。仅本年第一季度，俄罗斯的资本流出量就高达6-7千万美元；现在俄罗斯的经济处于困难时期，国内的生产比以往任何时候都急需投资，这一变故将使该需求更难得到满足。

The fallout from Russia's annexation 17 of Crimea and further stoking of unrest in eastern Ukraine has put downward pressure on an already weakening rouble. On its face, a cheaper currency should be a boon 18 to domestic producers. Visiting Moscow this month, Carlos Ghosn, the boss of Renault-Nissan, a global carmaker which is buying control of AvtoVAZ, the maker of Lada cars, argued that the weak currency will be “an advantage for local brands”.

由于俄罗斯吞并克里米亚，还不断加剧乌克兰东部的紧张局势，给本已日渐疲软的卢布又增加了下行的压力。从表面上看，贬值的货币对于国内的生产商来说是有益的。雷诺日产(Renault-Nissan)的老板戈恩（Carlos Ghosn）在本月出访俄罗斯称疲软的货币会是“本土品牌的优势”。目前雷诺日产正试图控股奥托瓦兹(Avtovaz)，后者是拉达汽车的生产者。

But thinking that a “weak rouble is the way forward” is the “wrong paradigm,” argues Yaroslav Lissovolik of Deutsche Bank. Many Russian manufacturers, like Sukhoi, depend on imports for inputs 19 and equipment. And in any case, many are running near full capacity and will be unable to grab market share from foreign rivals without money to invest in increasing output.

但是，德意志银行的利梭沃里克（Yaroslav Lissovolik）说“货币贬值是进步”的想法是“典型的错误”。他指出，俄罗斯的许多生产商同苏霍伊一样，需要依靠国外的资金和设备。所以，如果没有投资来提高产出，即使俄国企业开足马力进行生产，也很难从外国竞争对手那里抢占市场份额。

This confluence 20 of economic bad news will hit a few industries first and hardest: consumer goods, construction, property and banking 21. Demand for the roughly half of Russian steel that goes to building projects at home will drop. Car sales, dependent on the availability of bank loans, will probably fall. Already a softening 22 market has led Ford 23 to consider cutting production at its joint 24 venture with Sollers, a Russian firm. Even a continuation of the current stand-off between the Kremlin and the West would be bad enough for business. But things may well get far worse.

这些接连发生的经济问题会首先打击也是打击得最狠的使这些行业：日常消费品，房地厂和银行。俄罗斯将近一半的钢材输送给国内的建筑业，而这一需求将会下降。需要银行贷款来之称的汽车销售数量也可能下跌。俄罗斯本已缩水的汽车市场让福特的削减了其在俄的合资公司索莱尔（Sollers）的产量。现在俄与西方持续对峙的局势对俄罗斯的商业造的成负面影响已经够严重的了，但是情况可能还会变得更糟糕。