经济学人:英国公共财政 "昙花一现"后的悲凉

 　　Britain The public finances

　　英国 公共财政
　　Off target
　　偏离目标
　　Despite a good month, George Osborne is far from balancing the budget
　　纵然一月好光景，平衡收支路漫漫
　　January is always a bumper 1 month for the public purse. Government receipts spike 2 as workers scramble 3 to meet self-assessment tax deadlines, pushing public income far above spending. The month provides a fleeting 4 glimpse of a budget surplus, but it also, by contrast, is a striking reminder 5 of how distant that goal remains 6.
　　对公共财政而言，一月是喜庆丰收的时刻。随着工人们发奋实现自我评定缴税期限，政府收入飙升，一举带动公共收入远远甩开支出。这一月间，预算出现过转瞬即逝的盈余，但也适如其反地揭示了目标的真正实现何其遥远。
　　The latest data, released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) on 21st February, showed a January surplus of ￡15 billion ($23 billion). That allowed ￡11 billion of borrowing to be repaid, nudging public-sector debt down to ￡1.16 trillion or 74% of GDP. But over the course of recent years the reverse has been true: spending has been higher than receipts, meaning more borrowing and a growing pile of debt.
　　2月21日国家统计办公室（ONS）公布的最新数据显示一月盈余达到150亿英镑（230亿英镑）。这笔盈余能够偿还110亿英镑的借贷，并将公共部门债务削减到1.16万亿英镑，即GDP的74%。但这几年的现状与此截然相反：入不敷出，也意味着债台高筑。
　　The coalition’s austerity plan proposes to close this gap by raising income and cutting spending. Much of the early push focused on taxes: the first budget set out by George Osborne, the chancellor 7 of the exchequer 8, in June 2010, included a VAT 9 increase and higher capital gains tax. Because the tax changes were front-loaded, they are almost complete: the Institute for Fiscal 10 Studies (IFS), a think-tank, reckons four-fifths have been made. In part, this pace was possible because the aims are modest: to raise receipts from 37% to 38% of GDP and hold them there.
　　联合政府的紧缩计划设想通过提高收入，削减支出来填补差额。计划的初始围绕税收展开：财政大臣乔治奥斯本在2010年6月通过了第一批预算案，包括了更高的增值税和资产利得税。由于税收变动在前期实行，他们几乎都得以完成：一个智囊团，财政研究所认为该计划已经完成了五分之四。某种程度上，这样的进度是完全可行的因为目标并非遥不可及：将进款从GDP的37%增加到38%并保持在那个水准。
　　But even this humble 11 target now looks tough. Income tax has brought in less than expected, as has VAT: consumer spending is held back by flatlining wages. On top of this the sale of 4G spectrum 12, supposed to raise ￡3.5 billion, netted just ￡2.3 billion.
　　但即使只是实现这个简单可行的目标目前也看来举步维艰。所得税的税额不尽如人意，增值税亦然：消费支出因工资浮动而低迷不振。在此之上，4G频谱的销售只实现了23亿英镑的净收益，而原计划是35亿英镑。
　　This bad news means that a new income stream, appearing for the first time in January, is very welcome. Since March 2009 the Bank of England has been buying government debt, attempting to stimulate 13 the economy through quantitative 14 easing. Because its holdings are so large the interest it receives is chunky, too (by July 2012, the bank had earned ￡24 billion on its bond-holdings, which currently stand at ￡375 billion). This cash will be returned to the government, with a first payment of ￡3.8 billion, further boosting January’s income. Future payments will help put revenue plans back on track.
　　这样的噩耗也意味着，新收益流在一月的首次出现大受欢迎。自2009年3月以来英格兰银行一直在购买政府债务，试图通过量化宽松政策刺激经济。由于占有数额庞大，利息也很可观（截止2012年7月，银行已经通过持有债券挣到240英镑，而债券数额目前达到3750亿欧元）。这笔现金会归还政府，首批支付38亿英镑，进一步促进一月的收入。未来的支出会帮助收益计划重回正轨。
　　But the biggest test of austerity is spending cuts. Here plans are more ambitious: the savings 15 account for 85% of planned deficit 16 reduction, according to the IFS. And they have only just started: only a third of cuts to benefits and a fifth of those to departmental spending will be in place by the end of the financial year. Over the next five years, reductions in benefits, investment and government consumption will deepen year on year, cumulatively 17 cutting expenditure 18 from 42% to 37% of GDP.
　　但紧缩政策的最大考验是削减支出。相关的计划野心勃勃：据财政研究所的数据，储蓄要占到计划赤字缩减的85%。而一切才刚刚起步，到财政年底之前，只有救济金削减额的三分之一以及部门支出削减额的五分之一能就绪。在之后五年，津贴、投资及政府消费的削减会步步深入，累计将支出从GDP的42%缩减到37%。
　　It is early days, but the signs are not good. In December, the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), a fiscal watchdog, forecast that government departments would make extra cuts allowing a ￡4.5 billion underspend this year. But this week’s data confirm that spending on public services is actually likely to rise this year, so that forecast now looks optimistic. Overall,Britainlooks set to borrow slightly more this year than it did last year. The long road to a balanced budget is getting longer.
　　时候尚早，但情形并不乐观。12月，财政监督机构英国预算责任办公室预测今年政府部门需要进一步削减45亿英镑支出。但本周的数据证实公共服务支出可能会在今年上升，是以现在看来前景一片大好。总体上，英国今年预计贷款会比去年略多。通往平衡预算的漫漫长路变得愈发漫长。