VOA双语新闻：分析：俄格冲突影响俄与西方关系

　　Two days after Russia and Georgia agreed to a cease-fire, the truce 1 has yet to be fully 2 implemented 3 and Russian forces have yet to leave Georgian territory. Added to that has been a raging war of words and thinly veiled threats. The potential long-term implications for Russia's relations with the West.

俄罗斯和格鲁吉亚同意停火已经两天了，但是，停战还没有全面实现，俄罗斯军队尚未撤出格鲁吉亚领土。另外，双方的口舌之战也愈演愈烈，有时甚至是不加掩饰的威胁。这对俄罗斯与西方国家的长远关系有何影响?

When U.S. President George Bush threw America's full support behind Georgia on Wednesday, Russia's Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov was dismissive and is reported to have said that Washington needs to choose between its "virtual project" in Georgia and real partnership 4, referring to Russia.

当美国总统布什星期三给予格鲁吉亚全力支持的时候，俄罗斯外长拉夫罗夫对此不以为然。据报导，拉夫罗夫当时说，华盛顿必须在格鲁吉亚的“空洞项目”与真正夥伴之间作出选择。拉夫罗夫的夥伴关系指的是俄罗斯。

Russia's actions in Georgia have raised concern throughout Europe and have drawn 5 warnings from London. Speaking on British radio, Foreign Secretary David Miliband said Russia's actions amounted to blatant 6 aggression 7.

俄罗斯在格鲁吉亚的行动引起整个欧洲的担忧，伦敦还对此发出警告。英国外交大臣米利班德在英国电台说，俄罗斯的行动等同于公然的侵略。

"The sight of Russian tanks rolling into parts of a sovereign country on its neighboring border will have brought a chill down the spine 8 of many people - rightly, because that is a reversion to - it's not just Cold War politics, it's 19th Century ways of doing politics," he said.

他说：“看到俄罗斯坦克开进与其接壤的一个主权国家让很多人脊背发凉。确切地说，这不仅仅是开倒车回到冷战时代，而是采取了19世纪的处理政治事件的方式。”

Miliband said there was never a doubt that Russia could easily defeat the small Georgian army. But, he warned Russia needs to let go of the old Soviet 9 ways.

米利班德说，毫无疑问，俄罗斯能轻尔易举地击败小国格鲁吉亚。但是，他同时警告说，俄罗斯必须放弃前苏联的老套方式。

"The Soviet Union doesn't exist anymore. There is no such thing as ex-Soviet space," he said. "There is a new map of eastern Europe and the border area of Russia and I believe it's actually in Russia's interest to come to terms with that. It's not in Russia's interest to continue to hanker for a Soviet past because frankly 10, it's gone and it's good that it's gone."

他说：“苏联已经不复存在了。也不存在前苏联势力范围这回事了。东欧和俄罗斯边境周边地区产生了新的版图。我想，俄罗斯接受这样一个事实实际上对俄罗斯本身有好处。继续抱着前苏联不放手，对俄罗斯没有好处，因为老实说，苏联已经不存在了。苏联不存在是好事。”

And, the British foreign secretary said, Russia should think about the longer-term implications for its relations with the West.

英国外交大臣说，俄罗斯应该考虑这件事对俄罗斯与西方关系的更长远影响。

Russia's overwhelming response in Georgia and the breakaway enclave of South Ossetia is widely seen as symptomatic of Russian grievances 11 over western actions. These include the expansion eastward 12 of NATO and the European Union into what was once the Soviet sphere of influence, American plans for a missile defense 13 system in eastern Europe and western support for the independence of Kosovo from Russian ally Serbia.

俄罗斯对格鲁吉亚及格鲁吉亚争取独立的南奥塞梯的强烈反应被广泛认为反映俄罗斯对西方行动的不满。这包括北约的东扩、欧盟对曾经是苏联势力范围的渗入、美国打算在东欧修建导弹防御体系、以及西方国家支持科索沃从俄罗斯的盟国塞尔维亚独立等等。

Georgia wants to join both the EU and NATO and some argue that had Georgia been accepted into NATO, this conflict would not have occurred. Former British Foreign Secretary Malcolm Rifkind rejects that notion.

格鲁吉亚希望加入欧盟和北约。一些人认为，如果格鲁吉亚已经加入了北约，这次的冲突就不会发生。英国前外交大臣里夫金德反驳了这种看法。

"The United States, Britain, France, Germany are not going to go to war with Russia over South Ossetia, no matter how sympathetic we might be to the people of Georgia. We're sympathetic to Tibet, we're sympathetic to Zimbabwe. We don't contemplate 15 military solutions to these problems and so NATO membership is not the answer," said Rifkind.

他说：“不管我们对格鲁吉亚人民是如何的同情，美国、英国、法国、德国不会因为南奥塞梯问题与俄罗斯交战。我们同情西藏， 我们也同情津巴布韦。我们不能用军事手段解决所有这些问题，因此我不认为加入欧盟就会解决问题。”

The Georgian conflict has shown a resurgent Russia ready to use harsh power politics to advance its aims says international security analyst 16 Michael Denison of London's Chatham House research center. And, he says there is no unified 17 vision of what do about it, especially given western Europe's dependence 14 on Russian oil and gas.

伦敦查塔姆研究中心的国际安全问题专家丹尼森说，格鲁吉亚的冲突显示，重新崛起的俄罗斯准备使用强权政治来推进自己的目标。他说，对如何解决这个问题没有统一的看法，特别是考虑到东欧国家对俄罗斯石油和天然气的依赖。

"You look at the U.K. and the U.S., not directly dependent on Russian energy - willing and able to take a sharper line with Russia. And, if you look at the east of Europe, they also are fearful of Russia and want to take a sharper line," he said. "The crucial issue is what about the central belt of core European states - Germany, Italy, France, all of whom have look to cut bilateral 18 deals, looked to accommodate Russia - how will they react."

他说：“你看美国和英国， 这两个国家并不直接依赖俄罗斯的能源，他们愿意也能够对俄罗斯采取更为强硬的立场。你再看看东欧，他们也希望采取更为强硬的立场，但是他们害怕俄罗斯。所以关键的问题是欧洲核心带的几个国家--德国、意大利、法国。这几个国家都愿意与俄罗斯达成双边协议，希望满足俄罗斯--关键是看这些国家如何应对这个问题。”

Denison says the question is whether Europe will be able to forge a unified, combined response to Russia and a common energy security plan to get out from under its dependence on Russian energy.

丹尼森说，问题是欧洲能否联起手来，对俄罗斯采取统一态度，并制定能源安全计划，走出对俄罗斯能源的依赖。

"The chances are pretty slim of that in the short to medium term," he said.

他说：“中短期看来，这样的机会不大。”

So, the West's leverage 19 is limited. But many say what is likely to be the first fallout from the Georgian crisis will be a definite cooling of relations with Russia - maybe not to old Cold War levels, but a cooling all the same.

因此，西方国家的制衡力量非常有限。但是，很多人认为，格鲁吉亚危机产生的第一个影响很可能就是西方与俄罗斯关系的冷却--可能不会达到冷战的程度，却是确确实实的冷却。