VOA双语新闻 - 美房价继续下跌政府暗示刺激房贷

　　The U.S. housing sector 1 remains 2 weak, two years into an unprecedented 3 decline. House prices, house sales, and house construction are all continuing to fall.

美国的房屋市场依然疲软，房价已经史无前例地连续两年下跌。美国的房价、房屋销售，以及建房都还在继续下跌。

Home prices in the United States have fallen over eight percent this year, according to housing industry specialist Zillow.com. This follows a nine percent drop in 2007, the first year average U.S. home prices had declined since 1990. Overall, Zillow.com says American homeowners have lost $2 trillion of equity 4 during what has become the worst housing slump 5 since World War II.

根据房屋专业网站zillow.com的资料，美国的房价今年下跌了百分之8以上。这是继2007年美国房价下跌百分之9以来，连续第二年下跌。2007年是自1990年以来美国平均房价头一次下跌。zillow.com表示，美国的屋主总共损失了2万亿美元的价值，成为二战以来美国房价最惨重的下跌。

The U.S. economy overall is in the midst of deep recession, with some forecasters predicting that in the current three-month period economic activity is declining at seven percent annual rate.

美国的整体经济正处于严重的衰退之中，有些经济学家预测，目前这一季度的经济活动，下降了百分之7。

Treasury 6 Secretary Henry Paulson says an economic recovery is unlikely until house prices begin to rise. Tuesday the Federal Reserve signaled its intention to drive mortgage interest rates lower.

财政部长保尔森表示，直到房价开始回升以前，美国的经济不可能恢复。星期二，美联储暗示打算把房贷利率进一步降低。

"If we get mortgage rates down that is going to have a great deal of beneficial effect on the economy," said Richard Hoey, the chief economist 7 at the Bank of New York Mellon. "And I look at this statement [from the Federal Reserve] and see that this is a Fed that is trying to push mortgage rates down by buying mortgage securities."

纽约梅隆银行的首席经济学家侯伊说：“如果房贷利率再下降，对经济会产生巨大好处。而我看到联储会的这项声明，我发现这是联储会希望经由购买房贷债券来促使房贷利率下降。”

Mortgage rates are falling with 30-year home mortgages available at interest rates over five percent. Hoey told Bloomberg Television he expects rates will fall further. Rates haven't been below five percent since the 1950s.

30年期房屋贷款利率已经下降到百分之5点多。侯伊告诉彭博新闻社说，他预期利率还会下降。自从1950年代以来，房贷利率还没有低于百分之5。

But low rates have not yet stimulated 8 the depressed 9 housing market. New home construction in November fell 19 percent to its lowest level since 1959. Foreclosure filings in November were 28 percent higher than a year earlier and some 12 million Americans now have mortgage balances bigger than the market value of their homes. The credit squeeze that evolved into recession began in August 2007 with widespread defaults on high-risk home loans.

但是低利率还没有刺激低迷的房屋市场。11月的新屋开工率下跌了百分之19， 达到1959年以来的最低水平。11月份缴不出房贷而被没收的比例比一年前高出百分之28， 现在大约有1200万美国人的房贷欠款超过他们住房的市场价值。从2007年8月开始，高风险房屋贷款普遍出现拖欠，导致信用紧缩，并演变成经济衰退。

But not all experts agree that the government should be trying to boost home prices.

但并不是所有专家都赞成政府应该试图刺激房价。

"What the credit crisis is telling us is that there is too much debt and that asset prices were unreasonably 10 elevated, particularly house prices," said James Grant, a respected financial analyst 11 in New York. "The federal agenda is to intervene to try so as to prevent the readjustment of prices lower."

詹姆士.格兰特是纽约一名很受尊敬的金融分析家。他说：“信用危机告诉我们的是，美国人的债务太多，而资产价值不合理地膨胀，特别是房价。如果联储会进场干预，那么，就会阻止房价进一步降低的自我调节。”

The Federal Reserve is intent on stimulating 12 economic activity and combating incipient 13 deflation. Most experts say if mortgage rates do go lower, home prices are likely to recover.

联储会打算刺激经济活动，并且对抗刚刚开始的通货紧缩。大部分专家表示，如果房贷利率进一步降低，房价有可能回升。