经济学人359:日本的巨额养老金 追逐风险

　　Finance and economics

财经商业

Japan's pension giant

日本的巨额养老金

Risk on

追逐风险

The world's largest pension fund is changing the way it invests, with big consequences for the market.

这个世界上最大的养老金基金正在改变它的投资方式，并在市场上引起重大改变。

WHEN George Soros, a billionaire investor 1, met Shinzo Abe, the prime minister of Japan, at Davos in January, he hectored him about asset management.

当亿万富翁及投资人乔治?索罗斯于一月份在达沃斯遇到日本首相安倍晋三时，他拿资产管理吓唬了安倍一番。

Japan's massive public pension fund needed to take more risk, he reportedly told Mr Abe.

据报道，他告诉安倍说，日本的大型公共养老金基金需要敢于承担风险。

With 128.6 trillion of assets, the Government Pension Investment Fund is the world's biggest public-sector investor,

拥有128.6万亿日元的日本政府养老金投资基金是世界上最大的公共部门投资机构，

outgunning both foreign rivals and Arab sovereign-wealth funds.

超过了国外的类似机构以及阿拉伯主权基金。

Yet its mountain of money is run by risk-averse 2 bureaucrats 3 using an investment strategy not much more adventurous 4 than stuffing bundles of yen 5 under a futon.

然而这座钱山却由小心翼翼的官僚们经营，他们的投资策略不会比把整捆的日圆放在蒲团下面更冒险。

It keeps around two-thirds of assets in bonds, mostly of the local variety.

其资产的三分之二是债券，而且主要是国内债券。

Like an investing novice 6, it mostly follows indices passively, and hardly ventures abroad.

它跟个投资新手一样，只是消极地跟着指数走，并且极少到国外去冒险。

The government would dearly love to oblige Mr Soros.

日本政府可是迫不及待地想满足索罗斯的一番要求。

Mr Abe is now taking steps to overhaul 7 the fund.

安倍现在正着手改革养老基金。

日本养老金.jpg

In November last year an official panel laid out a plan of far-reaching reform,

去年十一月，一个官方顾问团提交了一份大范围的改革计划，

some of which could take effect as soon as this year.

其中一些甚至在今年就会产生效果。

To boost returns to future pensioners 8, it concluded,

计划中总结到，为大幅度提高未来养老金领取者的收益，

the GPIF should reduce its reliance on bonds, head into stocks and also invest in different asset classes including infrastructure 9 and venture capital.

GPIF应当减少对债券的依赖，投入股票市场并投资其他类型的资产，比如基础设施和风险投资。

Most radically 11, the government wants to break the ties that bind 12 the GPIF to the Ministry 13 of Health, Labour and Welfare.

政府最为激进的想法莫过于准备解除厚生劳动省对政府养老金投资基金的约束。

It is the ministry's cautious bureaucrats that keep the fund so averse to risk-taking.

正是小心翼翼的官僚作风使得该基金对风险敬而远之。

Even with a low return, of an annualised 1.54% over the past 12 years,

虽然过去12年间的年化利率低达1.54%，

the GPIF has met its own targets cheaply.

政府养老金投资基金还是达到了自己的既定目标。

The ministry is frugal 14 to the point of meanness.

劳动省的作风与其说是节俭还不如说是吝啬。

The fund's 80-strong staff are often unable to buy the market data they need.

基金的80名员工甚至经常不能购买需要的市场资料。

It is one thing to keep costs low,

减少开支是一回事，

quite another to forgo 15 receptionists, as the GPIF does at its non-descript office in Tokyo.

可连前台咨询员都没有就太过了，而政府养老金投资基金在东京简陋的办事处就是如此。

For Mr Abe, geeing 16 up the fund is part of his plan to revive Japan's economy,

对安倍来说，带动养老基金发展就如同日本中央银行在2013年4月大力推行的超宽松货币政策一样，

alongside a radical 10 monetary 17 easing which the Bank of Japan began in earnest in April 2013.

是他日本经济振兴计划的一部分。

As well as defeating deflation, Mr Abe seeks to boost risk-taking in the economy.

除了对付通货紧缩，安倍还在寻求方法来鼓励日本经济承担更多风险。

The planned changes to the fund also include demanding better corporate 18 governance from Japan's large companies.

养老基金改革计划中还包括要求日本大型企业实现更好的公司治理。

Already, the markets are anticipating the effect of the slow shift in direction.

市场已经预见到了这次缓慢的方向性转变可能带来的影响。

GPIF's influence is amplified 19 by other public pension investors 20 following its lead.

GPIF造成的影响随着其他公共养老金投资机构的跟风而进一步扩大。

The fund lowered the weight of Japanese government bonds from 62% in its portfolio 21 in March 2013 to 55% at the close of the year,

该基金已经将投资组合中日本国债的比重从2013年3月的62%降低到了年底时的55%，

putting most of the money—roughly 8 trillion—into local and foreign shares instead.

并把这些资金中的大部分资金，约有8万亿日元，投入到了国内外股票中。

The GPIF's shift may have contributed to the giddy rise of Japan's stockmarket,

GPIF的转型可能导致了日本股票市场的突然上涨，

which was one of the best-performing rich-country bourses in 2013.

使其成为2013年度富有国家中表现最好的股票交易所。

For investors, the likelihood that the GPIF will continue shifting towards equities 22 is a convincing reason to buy Japanese shares.

GPIF继续转向股票市场的趋势使得投资者大胆地买入股票。

That in turn reinforces Mr Abe's will to enact 23 the reform.

这也反过来实现了安倍推动改革的愿望。

So far this year the Nikkei's rise,

日经指数的上涨是本届政府受到广泛欢迎的原因之一，

an important contributor to the government's broad popularity, has stalled.

不过目前，这股增长势头已经停止。

But for every equity 24 punter cheering on the reform,

和股票持有者一致对改革拍手称快不同，

there is a JGB holder 25 fretful about the eventual 26 impact on prices if the asset class's biggest backer continues to sell off.

一位国债持有者对于国债最大持有者的持续抛售对于其价格的影响感到非常担忧。

Investors have long predicted a meltdown in the Japanese bond market, given that its public debt stands at nearly 240% of GDP.

一直以来，投资者们都预测日本债券市场可能暴跌，因为日本的国债达到了GDP的240%之巨。

One explanation of why the cost of borrowing for the government has remained low is that JGBs are chiefly held by loyal local banks and by public pension funds,

而国债利率一直维持在低水平是由于日本国债的持有者主要是忠诚的国内银行以及公共养老金基金，

rather than by foreigners who would demand a higher risk premium 27.

而非要求风险收益的国外机构。

Yet the landscape is changing as retirees draw down their savings 28, meaning that institutional holders 29 will become still more important.

然而随着退休人员减少了他们的储蓄，形势将发生改变，这些机构持有者变得更为重要了。

Ominously 30, Japan's current account has moved into deficit 31.

一个不详的预兆是，日本的财政已经出现了赤字。

For the time being, the monetary easing undertaken by the Bank of Japan will more than offset 32 the effect of any bond sales by the GPIF.

目前，日本中央银行实行的货币宽松政策能够轻松抵消GPIF出售国债带来的影响。

So now is exactly the right moment for the fund to sell with no fear of triggering a broader sell-off, argues Takatoshi Ito,

眼下正是基金卖出国债的大好时机，而不用担心引起大量卖出。

the chairman of the government-backed panel on the GPIF.

所以GPIF的政府顾问团主席伊藤隆敏认为。

Yet though the fund may at last escape its duty of holding oodles of government debt,

该基金或许最终难免逃避持有大量国家债券的职责，

the shift could exacerbate 33 problems once the central bank starts eventually to withdraw from its quantitative 34 easing.

不过一旦中央银行最终停止超宽松货币政策，这种转型将使情况进一步恶化。

The partial withdrawal 35 of the GPIF from the market, says Naka Matsuzawa, chief strategist at Nomura Securities in Tokyo, may contribute to a crisis later on.

野村证券首席策略师Naka Matsuzawa认为，GPIF在市场上部分撤资会引起后续的萧条。

When in December Mr Ito called for a radical cut in the GPIF's bond portfolio from 55% down to 35%, yields on JGBs temporarily rose.

去年12月，伊藤呼吁GPIF将债券投资比重由55%大幅度减少到35%时，日本国债的收益曾短期上升。

The basic arguments for overhauling 36 the fund are persuasive 37.

改革养老基金的基本论点非常有说服力。

With an ageing population, meaning the fund is already paying out more in benefits than it receives in contributions,

随着老龄化加剧，基金已经开始入不敷出了。

it can ill afford to settle for a low-risk, low-returns approach.

如果继续采用低风险、低收益的投资策略，基金可能会付不出养老金来。

Its strategy stands in contrast to pension pots in Canada and Australia, for example, which are given leeway to be more daring.

该基金的策略和诸如加拿大或澳大利亚的养老金机构相反，这些养老基金拥有承担风险的余地。

They also regularly badger 38 managers of the firms whose shares they own.

同时它们还监督所持股票的公司的经理人们。

Obliging the GPIF to insist on more active oversight 39 of firms would be the most useful way to improve Japan's corporate governance,

帮助GPIF更积极地监管公司会是提高日本公司管理最有效的方法，

says Hans-Christoph Hirt of Hermes, a British fund manager.

英国投资基金Hermes的经理Hans-Christoph Hirt这样认为。

For now the GPIF and the ministry are together resisting Mr Abe's initiative.

目前，GPIF和厚生劳动省正联手抵制安倍的倡议。

The GPIF's purpose is not to lift the stockmarket but to invest the people's money in a safe and efficient way,

GPIF的目的不是抬高股价而是将人民的钱以稳定而有效的方式进行投资。

complained its president, Takahiro Mitani, in February.

基金主席三谷孝弘在2月份抱怨道。

The GPIF will probably seek to reduce its bond portfolio by as little as it can.

GPIF可能会尽量保留国债。

The labour ministry's bureaucrats are understandably loth to forgo the prestige of managing the planet's single-largest pot of money.

劳动省不愿放弃管理这全球最大一笔钱的名声也很好理解。

Yet the government is determined 40 to overcome opposition 41, say insiders.

但内部人员透露，政府决心要克服反对意见。

Mr Soros, who reportedly made a cool $1 billion by shorting the yen in 2013, may soon be called in to offer further lessons.

他们可能马上又要向据称在2013年通过做空日圆赚了10亿美元的索罗斯求助了。