SSS 2011-05-16
时间：2019-01-08 作者：英语课 分类：Scientific American(五)月
This is Scientific American's 60-Second Science. I'm Karen Hopkin. This will just take a minute.
If you want to guess how many jelly beans are in a jar, you should ask your friends. Then average their answers. Because a group guess is often more accurate than that of any one individual. Just don't let them peek 1 at each other's responses. Because a new study shows that social influence can sway people's estimates and render the crowd incorrect. The work appears in the Proceedings 2 of the National Academy of Sciences.
Crowd wisdom is actually a statistical 3 phenomenon. Gather enough estimates and the wild guesses cancel each other out, bringing you closer to the answer. But psychology 4 and statistics don't mix. And knowing what your peers think doesn't make you any smarter.
European scientists asked volunteers to estimate statistics like the population density 5 of Switzerland. Each person got five guesses. Some were shown their peers' answers and others weren't. Turns out that seeing others' estimates led to a lot of second guessing. Which narrowed the range of the group's responses and pointed 6 them in the wrong direction. Even worse, knowing that others said the same thing made everyone more confident they were right. So there is wisdom in numbers—as long as those numbers keep quiet till they're counted.
Thanks for the minute. For Scientific American's 60-Second Science, I'm Karen Hopkin.
- Larry takes a peek out of the window.赖瑞往窗外偷看了一下。
- Cover your eyes and don't peek.捂上眼睛，别偷看。
- He was released on bail pending committal proceedings. 他交保获释正在候审。
- to initiate legal proceedings against sb 对某人提起诉讼
- He showed the price fluctuations in a statistical table.他用统计表显示价格的波动。
- They're making detailed statistical analysis.他们正在做具体的统计分析。
- She has a background in child psychology.她受过儿童心理学的教育。
- He studied philosophy and psychology at Cambridge.他在剑桥大学学习哲学和心理学。
- The population density of that country is 685 per square mile.那个国家的人口密度为每平方英里685人。
- The region has a very high population density.该地区的人口密度很高。
