经济学人:德国与希腊 如有必要就退出

 　　Germany and Greece

　　德国与希腊
　　Go if you must
　　如有必要就退出
　　Angela Merkel appears to have become more sanguine 1 about a Grexit
　　安吉拉·默克尔对“希腊退出欧元区”的态度似乎变得更加乐观
　　Merkel points the way for Samaras
　　默克尔为希腊总理萨马拉斯指明出路
　　IF THE Syriza party wins Greece's election on January 25th, most think the power to negotiate rests with Angela Merkel, the German chancellor 2. “A small minority, centred on the conservative leadership of the German government,” says Alexis Tsipras, Syriza's leader, “insists on rehashing old wives' tales and Grexit stories.”
　　如果希腊左翼联盟在1月25日大选中获胜，多数人认为只有德国总理安吉拉·默克尔才能（与其）进行协商。左翼联盟主席阿列克西斯·齐普拉斯表示“极力拥护德国保守派执政党领导人的极少数党，坚持原来的观点，反复提到‘希腊退出欧元区'的相关事宜。”
　　德国与希腊.jpg
　　So it seemed after German officials leaked to Der Spiegel, a weekly, their assessment 3 that Grexit would not only be bearable but might even make the euro stronger. Other problem countries have weathered the crisis (Portugal, Ireland) or are making progress (Spain). The euro zone now has a bail-out fund and a banking 4 union. German banks and insurers have reduced their exposure.
　　德国官员在接受德国《明镜周刊》采访时透露了他们的评估意见，似乎表示：欧元不仅可以承受“希腊退出欧元区”的压力，还可能会增强其自身实力。其他问题比较严重的国家有些平安度过危机（葡萄牙、爱尔兰），有些不断取得成绩，如西班牙。欧元区目前拥有救市资金与银行联盟。而德国的银行与保险公司已降低其经营风险。
　　On January 5th Steffen Seibert, Mrs Merkel's spokesman, insisted that German policy had not changed: it still aimed to hold the euro zone together. Yet all sides are now debating Grexit. Some in Mrs Merkel's Christian 5 Democratic Union (CDU) said giving in to Greece would encourage other countries, including France, to rebel against spending cuts and supply-side reforms. Sigmar Gabriel, leader of the Social Democrats 6, Mrs Merkel's coalition 7 partners, said Germany must not be “blackmailed”.
　　1月5日，默克尔总理发言人斯特芬·赛博特坚称德国没有改变政策，仍旨在维护欧元区的统一。然而，德国各党派目前就“希腊退欧”一事争论不止。有些来自默克尔领导的基督教民主联盟的人士认为，对希腊做出让步会助长包括法国在内的其他国家反对削减开支与供方改革的势头。默克尔总理联盟伙伴、德国社会民主党主席西格玛尔·加布里尔表示：德国千万不能被“要挟”。
　　Other Social Democrats recoiled 8 from this tone. So did the CDU's conservative Bavarian sister party. “We should not behave as a schoolmaster” to the Greeks, said Horst Seehofer, the Bavarian premier 9. The whole discussion was “irresponsible”, warned Simone Peter, a leader of the Greens. Sahra Wagenknecht, a leader of the ex-communist Left party, which sides with Syriza, accused Mrs Merkel's government of “scare tactics” to influence the Greek election.
　　社会民主党其他成员则惧怕使用这样的语调。基民联盟姊妹政党、巴伐利亚州的保守党派基督教社会联盟亦是如此。该联盟主席霍斯特·泽霍费尔表示，“我们不应该以校长的姿态”对待希腊人民。绿党领导人西莫尼·皮特警告道：整个讨论都是“不负责任的”。支持左翼联盟的前社会主义左翼党的领导人莎拉·瓦根克内希特谴责默克尔政府采用“恐吓手段”来影响希腊大选的行径。
　　Carsten Nickel at Teneo Intelligence, a risk consultancy, thinks Mrs Merkel is trying to “send a strong signal toAthens” that aid would still be tied to reforms, but that she will be flexible. A deal with Mr Tsipras could include lower interest or longer maturities 10 for Greek debt. But politics limit her room for manoeuvre 11. One change is the rise of the new anti-euro Alternative for Germany. It did well in state elections last year but is now riven by squabbles. Any softness on Greece will feed its support in Hamburg's election in February. Public opinion remains 12 sceptical. The tabloid 13 Bild says that, if Greece can't play by the rules,Germany should show it the “red card”.
　　风险咨询公司智库分析师卡斯滕·尼克尔认为，默克尔总理向雅典（希腊政府）试图传递这样一种强烈信号：援助与改革仍会绑定进行，没有改革，就没有援助，但她会灵活应对的。与齐普拉斯主席达成的协议可能包括减少利率或延长希腊还债期限。但囿于政治上的变动，她无法施展权术。变动之一是反对欧元的德国新选项党崛起。该党在去年州选中表现优异，而如今却因内讧四分五裂。对于希腊的任何仁慈行为都将有助于其支持汉堡2月份的选举。民众依然持怀疑态度。德国《图片报》画报称，若希腊不按规则出牌，德国应该亮出“红牌”，以示惩罚。
　　This is the tightrope 14 Mrs Merkel must walk after January 25th. Until then, she is likely to keep quiet. Even Austria, usually as strident as Germanyon the euro, has struck a note of caution. Its finance minister, Hans J?rg Schelling, told a German newspaper that it was not appropriate to “meddle in the election campaigns of other countries”. That is the last thing Mrs Merkel can be seen doing.
　　1月25日大选结束后，默克尔必须谨慎应对。在这之前，她极有可能保持沉默。即使是奥地利这个像德国一样一向极力反对欧元的国家也发出了警告通知。其财务部长汉斯·谢林在接受德国报社采访时表示，“任意干涉其他国家竞选的行为”并不可取。默克尔总理不到万不得已不会为之。