经济学人368:前沿市场 出险招赚大钱

　　Frontier markets

前沿市场

Wedge beyond the edge

出险招，赚大钱

Money is leaving emerging markets for riskier 1 bets at the investment frontier

资本正从新兴市场流向前沿市场，追逐更具风险投资

MANY of Africa's roads are scarred with potholes 2, so the fresh tarmac on the drive between Ndola and Kitwe, two cities in Zambia's copper 3 belt, is something of a treat. The country's road building is financed by a $750m Eurobond (as dollar bonds issued outside America are known) issued in September 2012. The timing 4 was perfect. The Federal Reserve had an open-ended commitment to buy Treasuries 5 to keep yields low. Investors 6 in America and Europe were hungry to buy dollar-denominated debt offering juicy yields. Zambia drew $12 billion of orders for a ten-year bond paying only 5.4%. Spain could not borrow as cheaply at the time.

赞比亚铜带上，恩多拉和基德伟两座城市之间，新近铺上了崭新的柏油马路。这在大部分道路都坑坑洼洼的非洲可算奢侈。2012年9月，赞比亚获得7.5亿美元的欧洲债券（在美国以外发行的美元债券）用作道路建设。当时时机可谓完美。美联储已承诺无限量购买美国国债以压低收益。欧美投资者争相购买美元计价的高收益债券。赞比亚以5.4%的低利率获得120亿美元的十年期国债订单。当时，西班牙尚无法获得如此低的利率。

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Zambia's debut 7 Eurobond showed how rich-world funds were looking beyond their home territory, past even emerging markets to “frontier markets” at the farthest edge of the investment universe. Even as the prospect 8 of the end of the Fed's bond-buying caused wobbles in emerging markets last year, African nations were able to tap funds. Nigeria and Ghana sold Eurobonds in July. Mozambique raised $850m in September. Gabon issued a second Eurobond in December.

赞比亚的第一批欧洲债券如此抢手，显示了发达国家资金正舍弃国内市场甚至是新兴市场，涌向最边缘的投资领域“前沿市场”。去年，新兴市场由于担心美联储停止购债而发生动荡。即便如此，非洲国家仍获得大量投资。尼日利亚和加纳在七月售出欧洲债券。莫桑比克于九月筹得8.5亿美金。十二月，加蓬发行第二批欧洲债券。

Frontier markets are generally small, illiquid and risky 9, so it is a surprise that recent tremors 10 in emerging markets have not shaken them more. Exotix, a broker 11, calculates an average interest-rate spread of Eurobonds from 50 frontier markets (compared with Treasuries). The spread on its index has narrowed to 395 basis points. The gap between the Exotix measure and J.P. Morgan's benchmark Emerging-Market Bond Index (EMBI) reached an all-time low of 68 basis points this week (see chart 1). Nor has investors' interest been confined to bonds. The MSCI frontier equity 12 index lagged behind its emerging-market cousin after the global financial crisis but recently has been catching 13 up.

前沿市场通常规模小，风险大，缺乏流动性。最近的新兴市场震动并未冲击到前沿市场，实在是令人吃惊。经纪公司Exotix计算出50个前沿市场的欧洲债券（与美国国债）的平均利差，已缩减至395个基点。本周，Exotix指数与摩根大通的新兴市场债券指数(EMBI)的差距降至68个基点，为历史最低点。投资者也不只对债券感兴趣。金融危机之后，MSCI(摩根斯坦利资本国际公司)的前沿市场股票指数一直落后于新兴市场，但最近差距正逐渐缩小。

Frontier markets might once have been dismissed as a side bet for emerging-market funds looking to pep up returns. They are now seen as an asset class in their own right, says Andrew Brudenell, who runs $700m of frontier equity funds at HSBC. Pension-fund trustees and consultants 14 now ask how much money they should allocate 15 to the frontier. The rising interest is in part because GDP growth in China, Brazil and India has diminished. The things that made emerging markets exciting in the 1990s are now found in frontier markets, says Charlie Robertson of Renaissance 16 Capital, an investment bank.

过去，新兴市场资金可能只在想获得额外收益时，会到前沿市场多赌一把。然而按照安德鲁?布鲁德奈尔的说法，前沿市场如今已是一个名正言顺的资本类别了。安德鲁?布鲁德奈尔现在在汇丰银行管理着7亿美元的前沿市场股票基金。养老金托管人和咨询师已经开始考虑，该放多少钱在前沿市场。对前沿市场的重视，一部分是由于中国、巴西和印度的GDP增速开始放缓。复兴资本的查理?罗伯逊称，上世纪九十年代促成新兴市场大发展的因素，现在都转移到了前沿市场。

There is much debate about where the frontier starts and ends. If the definition is a market that is neither developed nor emerging, then 23 of the 25 fastest-growing economies over the past decade are in the frontier category. But many of these frontier economies do not have stockmarkets and only Qatar is in the MSCI frontier-market index, an industry benchmark. To qualify, a stockmarket must have at least two stocks that meet specific thresholds for size and liquidity 17. It must also be “accessible”: this is harder to quantify but what matters is openness to foreign ownership, the ease with which capital can flow across borders and the stockmarket's functioning. Only 24 markets across eastern Europe, the Middle East, Africa and Asia make the cut. Their combined market capitalisation is $146 billion or so. By comparison the 21 stock markets in MSCI's emerging-market index are worth $4 trillion.

对于前沿市场的定义，至今仍充满争议。如果将其定义为既不是发达市场也不是新兴市场，那过去十年里25个发展最快速经济体中有23个会被归为前沿市场。但这些前沿经济体当中有一大批没有股票市场，并且只有卡塔尔被纳入MSCI前沿市场指数这一基准指数当中。一个合格的股票市场，必须至少拥有两支规模和流动性达到标准的股票，并且足够开放。后者较难以量化，但最重要的是是否向外资开放，资本跨境流通是否便利，股市是否有效运作。横跨东欧、中东、非洲及亚洲，只有24个市场达到该标准, 总市值达1460亿美元。与之相对的是MSCI新兴市场指数中的21个股票市场，总市值达4万亿美元。

A familiar grumble 18 about these sorts of indices, which are weighted by the market value of stocks, is that they have a skew that is unfavourable to bargain-hunters. Investors in index trackers spend more on stocks that have gone up in price. It is an acute problem for frontier markets. More than half of the MSCI index is accounted for by stocks from three oil-rich Gulf 19 states: Qatar, the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait (though the first two will soon graduate to emerging-market status).

这类市值加权指数常被认为有失偏颇，对欲低价买入股票的投机商不利。那些追踪股票指数的投资人会在已增值的股票上花更多的钱。这一问题在前沿市场尤为突出。MSCI指数中有一半以上的股票来自海湾地区的三个石油大国：卡塔尔，阿联酋和科威特（不过前两个很快将升至新兴市场级别）。

The purist sort of frontiersman sees the job as investing in poorer countries with the greatest potential. Purists give more room in their portfolios 20 to stocks from poor, populous 21 and fast-growing markets, such as Nigeria or Pakistan. As countries like these become richer, their middle classes will grow and spending on infrastructure 22 will increase. The so-called BBC stocks (banks, brewers and cement companies) are one way to play these investment themes. Zenith Bank, Nigerian Breweries 23 and Dangote Cement are popular stocks. Nestlé has a subsidiary that is listed in Lagos. In Pakistan there is Bank Alfalah and DG Khan, a cement company.

纯粹的前沿市场投资者认为，前沿市场相对较贫穷，但潜力最大。这些投资者的资产组合当中，贫穷、人口众多、快速发展市场的股票占了更大的比例，像尼日利亚和巴基斯坦。在财富增长的同时，这些国家的中产阶级日益壮大，基础设施投资也将增加。所谓的BBC股票（银行,啤酒厂和水泥厂）就是前沿市场常见的投资标的之一。詹尼斯银行、尼日利亚啤酒厂和丹格特水泥都是抢手的股票。雀巢的一家分公司在拉各斯（尼日利亚首都）上市。巴基斯坦较热门的股票有阿法拉银行和德拉加齐汗水泥厂。

Specialist funds wanting to spread their bets may look at markets and stocks that are not in the main index. Saudi Arabia is a liquid market but tricky 24 for foreigners to invest in. Its stockmarket sports SADAFCO, a dairy producer. Cambodia is another off-index bet. It has Nagacorp, a casino. Often the only way to buy exposure is through bonds. Angola is Africa's third-biggest economy, after South Africa and Nigeria. It has no stockmarket but it does have a Eurobond. Mozambique's Eurobond was ostensibly for a state-backed fishing venture. Investors bought it anyway, with one eye on the country's fast-growing economy and the other on its offshore 25 gas reserves.

希望分摊风险的专业基金有时会考虑主要指数之外的市场和股票。沙特阿拉伯具有充分流动性，但对外国投资者来说，却是一个难以捉摸的市场。沙特股市中最亮眼的是沙特乳制品及食品公司。柬埔寨也是主要指数之外的一个投资热点，拥有博彩公司金界控股。通常进行风险投资唯一的途径就是购买债券。安哥拉是继南非和尼日利亚之后非洲第三大经济体，没有股市，但有欧洲债券。赞比亚的欧洲债券名义上是为一家政府支持的渔业公司筹资，但投资者还是争相购买，一方面是考虑到赞比亚快速发展的经济，另一方面是看中了赞比亚丰富的近海天然气储备。

Greater demand should spur the supply of stocks, through sales of private stakes or privatisations. Deeper equity markets would be welcome. Access to debt markets is more of a mixed blessing 26 for some. Ghana issued its first Eurobond in 2007. Within a few years its budget deficit 27 blew out to 12% of GDP after a large public-sector pay rise. Mozambique shows worrying signs of similar trouble.

需求增加，能刺激股票的供应，包括出售私人股份或私有化。更具深度的股票市场将受到欢迎。对一些国家来说，接触到债券市场有好亦有坏。加纳于2007年第一次发行欧洲债券。在大幅增加公有部门薪酬后，几年时间内预算赤字飙升至GDP的20%。莫桑比克也开始出现类似问题的苗头，令人担忧。

Zambia meant to use its proceeds wisely. The money was to go on targeted projects. New roads in the copperbelt make sense since so much cargo 28 is sent by truck. But easy money leads to lax discipline. The state's wage bill has become bloated. The budget deficit may be as high as 8% of GDP this year. To help fill the gap, Zambia is said to be plotting another Eurobond.

赞比亚原本想用好这笔钱，把钱花在重点项目上。在铜带上筑路是颇明智的选择，因为大量的货物都是通过卡车运送的。但钱来得容易，花得也就随意了。赞比亚政府部门薪酬已然过高。今年的预算赤字可能达到GDP的8%。据说为了弥补空缺，赞比亚已经在筹划发放新一轮欧洲债券。