经济学人360:音乐产业 高举丁日的旗帜

　　Business

商业报道

The music industry

音乐产业

Beliebing in streaming

高举丁日的旗帜

Record bosses now hope that online streaming could become a big enough business to arrest their industry's long decline

唱片公司老板们正希望线上流媒体能成为一盘足够大的生意，以阻止他们产业的长期衰退

AT THE headquarters of Pandora, an online-radio firm, in Oakland,

位于奥克兰市的Pandora总部中，

about a dozen headphone-clad analysts 1 fill in a long questionnaire as they listen.

约有12名头戴耳机的分析员听着歌曲信息，完成着一份很长的调查清单。

They rank whether a song's mood is joyful 2 or hostile, the vocalist breathy or gravelly.

他们会将一首歌的基调做出分类，如欢快或狂暴；同时也会对歌唱家进行分类，如气息流派或声线沙哑型。

They note whether they can hear electric guitars, lutes or bagpipes 3.

他们会记录一首歌曲当中是否有电吉他、琉特琴或风笛等等的乐器演奏。

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Their ratings help to shape algorithms that push music to the service's 76m users.

他们的分类评级，是构成一款拥有760万名用户音乐服务的关键程序之一。

Pandora is in the vanguard of a revolution in which ever more consumers are streaming music over the internet to their smartphones or computers,

如今Pandora正是这样一场革命的先锋，消费者们正以前所未有的数量进入到音乐流媒体的世界当中，通过互联网这一渠道，他们不再收藏音乐，

instead of owning collections of songs.

而是直接通过自己的智能手机和电脑收听音乐。

For the first time since Apple popularised the paid download in 2003,

这是自2003年苹果公司普及付费下载模式以来，

the record business is changing key again.

唱片行业的又一次巨变。

From wax cylinders 5 via vinyl, cassettes and CDs to MP3s,

从乙烯树脂制成的黑胶唱片，发展到了卡带和CD唱片，再到了MP3，

it is undergoing another format 6 shift—maybe,

此行业又将面临一次音乐制式转换。

some in the business muse 7, its last.

而有些人沉思道，或许这是唱片行业的最后一次变革。

Streaming services give music-lovers access to millions of songs,

流媒体服务能够让音乐爱好者们接触成千上万的歌曲，

but the services are not all alike.

但这些服务类型都不尽相同。

Online-radio versions, including Pandora and Apple's iTunes Radio, choose what consumers hear,

包括Pandora和苹果音乐电台在内的线上电台模式，能够为消费者们提供他们想听的音乐，

and the firms make their revenues through advertising 9.

并且服务商将通过广告业务实现盈利。

Others, such as Spotify and Deezer, let customers select songs from a catalogue of 20m-30m, charging premium 10 subscribers a monthly fee.

另一方面，如声破天和Deezer的服务商，则让消费者们从200万至300万的曲目中挑选歌曲，并对高级会员收取月费。

Free services that stream music videos, such as YouTube, also get plenty of play.

一些免费的音乐录影带流媒体服务，如YouTube公司，也在市场中分到了一杯羹。

All the variants 12 pay the record labels some fraction of a penny each time someone clicks on a song.

以上各类的音乐服务的每一次点播，都意味着需要给予唱片公司一定的报酬。

Streaming's rise makes music bosses as giddy as a bunch of teenage Beliebers queuing to see Justin Bieber.

流媒体业务的迅猛发展，让唱片公司老板们都处于轻佻浮躁的状态当中，就像一群排队等着见丁日的丁日粉一样。

Yet at first glance a report on March 18th by IFPI, a record-industry group, suggests that things are still getting worse.

然而，在最初看到唱片业组织IFPI在3月18日发布的报告之时，形势不容乐观。

Music labels' worldwide revenues fell by 4% last year to 15 billion, a reversal of 2012's slight rise.

与2012年的轻微上升截然相反，去年唱片公司全球收入为150亿美元，较往年下降了4%。

But much of the fall was due to Japanese consumers finally giving up on CDs, as much as the rest of the world had already done.

但这很大程度上要归因于日本消费者的转变。他们终于放弃了对光碟产品的购买，跟上了世界其余国家早已达到了的市场态势。

A closer look shows that streaming services are starting to bring the business back into profit in countries that have suffered steady declines, such as Italy.

而进一步细究可知，在一些音乐产业持续衰退的国家，比方说意大利，流媒体服务已经开始将这一行重新带入盈利当中。

Streaming now has around 28m paying subscribers, and several times as many who use free versions.

如今，流媒体服务的付费用户约为280万人，免费用户则是前者的数倍之多。

Last year subscription 13-based versions like Spotify had combined revenues of more than 1 billion, up more than 50% from 2012.

就像Spotify之类的以付费订阅为基础的服务商们，去年获得了超过10亿美元的总收入，与2012年相比业绩上涨超过了50%。

That figure does not include online-radio firms, which last year had revenues of 590m in America alone,

这一数字并不包括线上电台模式的公司。仅以美国当地来计算，去年线上电台模式的公司获得了5亿9千万美元的收入，

a rise of 28% from the year before.

较往年相比涨幅为28%。

In America, the largest music market, 21% of the industry's 2013 revenues came from streaming, whose growth more than offset 14 declines in CD sales.

在全球最大的音乐消费市场美国，2013年唱片行业21%的收入来源于流媒体，而该项业务的增长效益超过了相抵之下光碟销售的下滑。

Streaming services have taken off thanks to wider smartphone adoption 15, faster internet connections and the spread of cheap online cloud storage for music files.

流媒体服务的成功发展归功于以下几点原因：更广泛的智能手机应用，更快的网络连接，以及音乐文件的廉价线上云储存服务。

Even so, only 4-5% of music consumers in America and Britain have so far signed up for subscription streaming,

即便在这样的市场环境下，目前美国和英国的音乐消费者当中，仅4-5%订购了流媒体服务。

says Mark Mulligan of MIDiA Consulting.

MIDiA咨询公司的马克·穆里根表示。

But if just 10% of the people in rich countries were to subscribe 11, the industry's fortunes would be transformed,

但只要富裕国家中有10%的人选择订购，那么整个唱片行业的命运将会转变。

says Claudio Aspesi of Sanford C. Bernstein, another research outfit 16.

伯恩斯坦分析师克劳迪奥·阿斯佩西这样认为。

YouTube, Google's popular online video service,

谷歌公司旗下最热门的线上视频网站YouTube，

is expected to launch a paid-for music-streaming service in the coming months, which should help boost the numbers.

有望在未来数月中实施对音乐流媒体服务的收费，而这将令付费的用户数量激增。

So might bundling music with a mobile-phone subscription, as AT&T is doing with Beats,

将音乐与手机服务捆绑销售也能达到同样的促进效果，而这正是美国电话电报与魔音的合作项目。

a seller of headphones that has branched into subscription music.

魔音公司是一家跻身进入付费音乐领域的耳机销售商。

Arms around the world

着眼全球

Having previously 17 fought losing battles against technological 18 change, record executives have been quicker to embrace streaming's surge.

在输掉了前面几场科学技术战役后，唱片公司的老总们正迫不及待地依靠流媒体业务的快速增长打一个翻身仗。

Until recently Apple's iTunes was the sole king reigning 19 over the digital-music realm;

直到最近为止，苹果音乐一直是唯一一位统治着数字音乐世界的霸者；

now there are dozens of princelings.

而如今，则进入到了群雄并立的时期。

This gives more negotiating power to the surviving three major record labels, down from six 15 years ago.

这能让仅存的唱片巨头从15年前的6家缩减至目前的3家，拥有更多的谈判优势。

I see myself as an arms dealer 20 selling to everyone who will buy, says a gleeful record executive.

一位心情愉悦的唱片公司老总说：我把自己当成一位军火商，只要有人买，我就卖。

Streaming is also good news for independent labels, some of which are enjoying double the market share they had on CDs.

流媒体的发展对于独立唱片公司来说，也是个极好的消息，其中一些公司将市场份额扩大到了光碟时期的两倍。

It is also making it easier for music to travel beyond national boundaries.

与此同时，跨国界的音乐传播也因此变得更为便利。

We are getting revenue from markets where we never had a presence in the physical world, such as Brazil,

现在，我们正从以前没有进入过的实体唱片市场当中取得收入。

says Fredrik Ekander, the boss of Cosmos 21, a Swedish label.

瑞典唱片公司Cosmos的老板Fredrik Ekander表示。

Charles Caldas of Merlin, a licensing 22 agency for independent labels, says streaming also helps monetise the nostalgia 23 market.

查尔斯·卡尔达斯是全球性版权许可机构Merlin的CEO，而他认为流媒体同样能让怀旧之情转换成利润流入。

In the physical world more than two-thirds of sales are for new releases;

在实体唱片市场当中，超过三分之二的音乐销售额是由新发行的歌曲构成的；

on Deezer only a third of songs streamed are new.

而在Deezer，只有三分之一的流媒体点播是新歌。

To distinguish themselves from rivals and help users navigate 24 their vast catalogues, streaming firms are offering curated playlists,

为了胜过同行的服务以及为了更好地帮助用户管理曲目，流媒体公司们提供了精选的播放列表，

compiled by algorithms, celebrities 25 and consumers themselves.

而这份列表是由系统算法、歌手和消费者自身共同编制而成的。

Users can also see what their friends on social networks are playing, and share tracks and playlists,

用户们不仅仅可以看到他们在社交网站上的朋友所听的歌曲，还能对外分享歌曲和播放列表，

which helps new acts take off.

同时这也促进了新歌手的成长。

Avicii, a Swedish DJ, has become the most streamed artist on Spotify.

在声破天网站上，一位瑞典DJ艾维奇成为了最多点播量的艺人。

Streaming is forcing a creative but undisciplined industry to pay more attention to data.

流媒体的发展令一个从前具有创造性但管理模式混乱的行业，变得更加注重数据处理。

In early March Spotify reportedly paid 200m for Echo Nest,

在三月初据报道称，流媒体音乐服务Spotify宣布它已经收购了音乐智能技术公司Echo Nest，

which analyses data for music services and helps shape playlist algorithms.

后者为诸多流媒体公司提供数据分析，以及构建播放列表等服务提供支持。

Beats soon followed by purchasing TopSpin Media, which collects data to help artists connect with their fans.

魔音公司随即收购了TopSpin Media，而这是一家能够通过采集信息去帮助艺术家们与粉丝联系的公司。

Warner Music Group recently launched a new label in partnership 26 with Shazam, a music-recognition app.

华纳音乐集团近期与音乐雷达合作成立了一家新的唱片公司。

Together they will trawl Shazam's listener data to identify rising artists to sign up.

他们将一起收集分析Shazam的听音数据，以寻找并签下冉冉升起的新星。

Providing the streaming services can be persuaded to share their data,

提供流媒体服务的商家，也能够与唱片公司们分享自己的数据。

record labels will be able to see the response to new songs immediately,

而在这样的情况下，唱片公司们能够马上得知一首新歌的反响，

and put marketing 27 dollars behind those that strike a chord.

并能从中挑选出扣人心弦的歌曲，从而投入市场推广资金。

Performers will get a better idea where their fans live, to optimise their tour schedules.

与此同时，音乐表演者们也能够对他们自己粉丝的居住地有较好的了解，从而优化他们的巡回演出计划。

The economics of streaming look quite different from those of earlier music formats 28.

流媒体的盈利模式与先前的音乐格式相比显得十分不同。

On-demand streaming services pay a record label about three-tenths of a cent each time one of its songs is played,

以需求量为标准的流媒体服务商在每首歌点播之时，会给予唱片公司的3/10美分，

and online-radio services even less.

而网络电台服务商则支付得更少。

But music fans may play a favourite tune 8 dozens, maybe hundreds of times,

但一些粉丝或许会连续播放一首自己喜欢的曲子数十遍，甚至上百遍，

so those fractions of pennies can add up.

因此这些零零碎碎的加总能得到一个很高的数字。

Streaming subscribers pay around 120 a year,

流媒体的付费订阅者每年大约要支付120美元，

which is more than double what the average American music consumer spends.

而这一数字大约是平均美国音乐消费者花费的两倍。

Yet some performers are unconvinced.

然而，一些歌手却对此表示怀疑。

Thom Yorke, the lead singer of Radiohead, has called Spotify the last desperate fart of a dying corpse 29.

Radiohead乐队的主场汤姆·约克将Spotify称为一个垂死之人所放的绝望的最后一个屁。

Music services have responded by being more open about how artists are paid,

而服务商们对此的回应是，让歌手们的收入方式更为自由，

and arguing that their cheques will grow larger as more people sign up, as has happened in Sweden.

并表示歌手们的收入会随着付费订阅人群的增加而增加，就像瑞典的案例一样。

It is more complicated in countries with a well-established download market,

音乐市场状况在一些早已建立起了下载规范的国家来说显得更为复杂，

such as America and Britain, where industry executives worry that streaming may cannibalise downloads.

比如美国和英国，这些国家的老板们担心流媒体服务或许会催生出将音像资料分割开来的非法下载。

However, the bigger issue for artists is that so few people overall pay for music, says Will Page, an economist 30 at Spotify:

然而，Spotify的经济顾问威尔·佩吉表示，对于歌手来说更大的问题是只有很少一部分人为音乐服务付费。

Half the population in the West spends nothing on music.

他说：目前西方国家当中的半数人口享受着免费音乐，

You can't cannibalise zero.

对此你可以不必担心所谓的分割下载能够损害唱片行业利益。

For years music has been a toxic 31 place to invest.

多年以来，唱片行业都不是一个投资的好领域。

But the internet is at last bringing sexy back, as Justin Timberlake, a pop star turned actor and entrepreneur, might say.

但最终随着网络发展，唱片行业或许最终能像贾斯汀·汀布莱克所说的一样，实现强势回归。

Since 2009 investors 32 have poured more than 1 billion into digital-music services in private transactions.

自2009年以来，私人交易领域中投资者们已经对数字音乐服务投入了超过100亿美元。

Speculation 33 is mounting that Spotify, which was reportedly valued last year at more than 5 billion, will soon go public.

针对Spotify公司近期上市的传闻越来越多，而据报道称去年这家公司的估值已经超过了50亿美元。

Shares in Pandora, already listed, have nearly tripled in the past year.

上市公司Pandora的股价在去年几乎增长至原先三倍的水平。

Its market capitalisation is now almost 7 billion.

目前，该公司的市场价值约为70亿美元。

Such valuations assume that the services' popularity will continue to grow,

从这样的估价我们可以推断出，流媒体市场的热度将会持续上涨，

and that subscription-based ones will persuade a sufficient proportion of those using their free versions to upgrade to paid varieties.

并且付费订阅的服务商也会令足够大的一部分使用免费服务的用户，升级进入到付费市场当中来。

Worryingly, churn tends to be high: around 46% of users of subscription services have either switched or say they plan to, according to Mr Mulligan of MIDiA.

令人担忧的是，此行业的客户流失率也很高：来自MIDiA机构的穆里根先生所提供的资料显示，约有46%的付费订阅用户已经改变自己的音乐消费或者正打算改变。

Nevertheless, people in the record industry are talking about another golden age.

尽管如此，唱片行业的人都讨论着新一轮黄金时代。

There is bound eventually to be a shake-out among the many new streaming services.

在这为数众多的新进入市场的流媒体服务商当中，最终肯定会进行一次洗牌。

But for the music labels, it now seems clear that, once the physical CD has eventually gone the way of the wax cylinder 4,

但目前对于唱片公司来说，如果实体光碟最终像黑胶唱片一样逐渐消亡，

they will still have a profitable way to exploit their catalogues,

那么他们也能找到另外一条有钱赚的路子，以继续歌曲创作事业。

based on music fans being offered instant access to a near-limitless online jukebox.

而这条路，便是持续地为音乐爱好者们提供一个几乎毫无限制的线上点播服务。