经济学人:爱尔兰赤字高居欧盟前列 政府6次收缩预算

 　　Europe Ireland’s budget

　　欧洲 爱尔兰的财政预算
　　Light at the end of the tunnel
　　一线希望
　　Ireland’s sixth austerity budget
　　爱尔兰的第六次收缩预算
　　Since mid-2008, successive governments have taken 25 billion euro ($33 billion) out of the Irish economy in tax rises and spending cuts, the equivalent of 16% of economic output in 2011. On December 5th Michael Noonan, the finance minister, removed another 3.5 billion euro when he presented the country’s sixth austerity budget.
　　从2008年中至今的历届政府已经通过增加税收和裁剪开支，将财政缩减了250亿欧元（330亿美元），这个数目相当于2011年经济总产出的16%。在12月5日，财政大臣迈克尔·诺南颁布该国的第六次收缩预算，进一步削减了35亿欧元。
　　This is the latest instalment of an austerity plan that the government hopes will achieve two goals. One is to enable Ireland next year to leave the 67.5 billion euro bail-out programme with the European Union, IMF and European Central Bank (ECB) agreed in 2010 and regain 1 access to market funding. The other is to reduce the budget deficit 2 to below 3% of GDP by 2015. At 8.2% Ireland’s budget deficit is still one of the highest in the EU.
　　凭借这最新一期的财政收缩计划，政府旨在达成两个目标。其一是使爱尔兰能在明年脱离欧盟，国际货币基金组织和欧洲央行在2010年达成的675亿欧元经济救助计划，并再次入市融资。其二便是在2015年前将预算赤字降低到国内生产总值的3%以下。目前，爱尔兰8.2%的赤字比率仍然高居欧盟前列。
　　In his budget measures, Mr Noonan broadened Ireland’s narrow revenue base. He focused on higher-income earners. Wealthier pensioners 3 will feel the pain: the cap on tax relief for pension contributions will be lower and better-off pensioners (those over 70 with incomes over 60,000 euro) are hit by higher social charges. A modest residential-property tax has been introduced against the background of a collapse 4 in house prices. Many new homeowners are in negative equity 5, with a growing number in arrears 6 on their mortgage payments.
　　在诺南的预算方案中，他扩大了爱尔兰狭窄的课税基础。他把矛头对向高收入者。领取高额养老金的人会遭遇沉重打击：对养老金的税收减免限额会更低，富裕的养老金领取者（年过70，收入超过60,000欧元）要承担更高的社会费用。为应对房价崩溃的大背景，一项适度的住宅物业税应运而生。许多新的房主都陷入了负资产的困境，拖欠抵押贷款的现象越来越频繁。
　　The government is relying on economic growth to meet its ambitious budget targets for 2013. It is forecasting 1.5% GDP growth for next year, which seems optimistic given Ireland’s dependence 7 on an export-led recovery to achieve it. That may prove difficult with the euro zone in recession and a weakening British economy. Another concern is the sustainability of Ireland’s public debt, which is expected to hit 118% of GDP this year. Almost a third of it is accounted for by state support for distressed 8 banks. Discussions with the ECB on restructuring the promissory notes that the government issued to cover 30 billion euro in losses, mostly at Anglo Irish Bank, have continued for more than a year without success. The government’s hopes that the new European Stability Mechanism 9 could be used to take over state-owned Irish banks in a debt-equity swap 10, have also been disappointed.
　　政府希望借助经济增长来实现它野心勃勃的2013年预算计划。据估计爱尔兰明年国内生产总值的增长达到1.5%，考虑到爱尔兰依靠出口导向型的经济复苏来实现这一目标，形势一片大好。但萧条的欧元区以及脆弱的英国经济还是会给这一目标带来困难。另一个隐忧是公共债务的持续性，该债务预计会在今年达到国内生产总值的118%。其中接近三分之一用于资助处境窘迫的银行。与欧洲央行关于重组本票事宜进行的商谈已经持续一年有余而无所进展，那些本票是政府为弥补主要由盎格鲁-爱尔兰银行所造成的300亿欧元损失而发行的。政府关于新的欧洲稳定机制通过债权转股权接管爱尔兰国有银行的希望也落空了。
　　The government’s major achievement in 2012 has been the sharp reduction in bond yields onIreland’s sovereign debt, which reflects its success in meeting all the targets set in the EU/IMF programme. In January Ireland takes over the six-monthly presidency 11 of the EU. Haggling 12 in Brusselsis likely to absorb much of the attention of Irish ministers, leaving less time for pressing national concerns—such as debt relief.
　　政府在2012年取得的主要成就就是大幅削减了爱尔兰主权债务的债券收益率，这也反映了它成功地达成了欧盟和国际货币基金组织所设立的目标。从一月开始，爱尔兰接任为期半年的欧盟轮值主席国。在布鲁塞尔的唇枪舌战可能转移爱尔兰大臣的大量注意力，这样留给他们处理国内忧患——比如减轻债务——的时间少之又少。