VOA双语新闻 - 专家称泰国经济受损可能将会持续

　　Bangkok's international airport is returning to normal, after protesters shut it down for eight days. But business experts say the economic damage caused by the country's political crisis may linger for some time.

曼谷国际机场因示威活动被迫关闭8天后，目前正在恢复正常。但是，商业专家表示，该国的政治危机所造成的经济损害可能会持续一段时间。

Within a few days, cargo 1 and passengers should be flowing normally through Bangkok's international airport. The anti-government protesters who occupied it began leaving Wednesday, after a court barred Thailand's prime minister and his party from politics.

几天之内，货物和乘客就可以通过曼谷国际机场正常出入了。在泰国法庭作出裁决，禁止总理及其政党参政之后，占据机场的反政府示威者星期三开始撤离。

But business leaders in Thailand say the country's reputation has been badly damaged by the occupation, which shut traffic for eight days.

但是，泰国商业领袖表示，该国的声誉因示威者占据机场导致航班停运8天而受到严重损害。

John Koldowski, an executive with the Pacific Asia Travel Association in Bangkok, says that, although tourism has been most immediately affected 2, problems caused by the airport's closure spread around the country.

克多斯基是总部在曼谷的“太平洋亚洲旅游协会”的经理。他说，尽管旅游业是最直接受到影响的行业，机场停运造成的问题会蔓延到全国。

"I think the ripple 3 effect is beginning to be felt now, because the freight's affected as well. So you're looking at produce that can't be shifted out of Thailand. You're looking at produce that can't come into Thailand for consumption. It's now starting to be felt right across the wider society," said Koldowski.

克多斯基说：“我认为，由于货运也受到影响，人们开始感受到这个事件所产生的连锁反映，比如说，农产品无法进入泰国，满足人们的消费需求。社会上下开始普遍感受到这一点。”

Hotels struggled to accommodate stranded 4 guests while the airport was closed. Now, they are looking ahead to see whether potential visitors have been scared away.

在泰国国际机场被关闭的同时，旅店也在艰难地接待被困的房客。现在，这些旅店正在筹划今后的日子，看看游客们会不会因这个事件吓得再也不敢回头了。

Porntina Tangsajjavitoon - the communications director for the Accor Group, which has 20 hotels in Bangkok - says, so far, the damage is moderate for her company, in part because their rooms stayed filled with stranded tourists. She says only a few bookings for the upcoming Christmas holiday have been canceled.

法国雅高集团在曼谷有20家旅店，该公司公关部主任唐萨贾维童说，到目前为止，她的公司的损失比较轻，部分原因是，游客被困使客房满员。她说，即将来临的圣诞节假期也只有几个预订房被取消。

"It's not as bad as we thought. … However, the new reservations, we'll probably have to wait and see a little more. Of course, there are some cancellations as well," she said.

唐萨贾维童说：“这并不像我们想象得那么糟糕。但是，新的预订情况如何，也许，我们还要再观望一段时间。当然，有些预订房已经被退掉。”

However, other hotels are seeing a greater number of cancellations. Some report they may see fewer than half their rooms occupied, in the coming weeks - the heart of the peak tourism season.

但是，其它旅店却有一大批人退房。有些旅店反映说，今后几个星期，是旅游旺季的高潮，旅店可能只有不到一半的客房有人居住。

Business leaders worry that the damage could be long-lasting and they are concerned because it could be weeks before a new government is installed.

商业领袖们担心，造成的损害可能是持久性的，他们之所以有这方面的担心，是因为新政府组建可能需要几个星期的时间。

Dusit Nontanakorn, the vice 5 chairman of the Thai Chamber 6 of Commerce, says airport managers worked hard to get flights moving again, but more must be done now to help the business community, which already was suffering because of the global economic downturn.

泰国商会副主席农坦纳科恩说，机场主管人员努力使航班恢复运行，但帮助受到全球经济衰退影响的商业社区重振旗鼓，仍有很多工作要做。

"The private sector 7 and the government officials really have to join hands and work together. We cannot wait until the next government will be coming in," he said.

他说：“私营领域和政府官员要真正携起手来共同努力。我们不能坐等下届政府上台。”

There is considerable concern that Thailand's political crisis is just on hold and has not ended. Most members of parliament from the banned party have regrouped under another banner and they, along with coalition 8 partners, still hold a majority of seats. If their choice for a new prime minister - expected next week - does not satisfy the anti-government group, protesters may well be back on the streets.

人们极为担心，泰国的政治危机并没有结束，而只是暂时得到控制而已。被取缔的政党的大多数议会成员又以另外一个名义重新组合，他们和联盟伙伴一起，仍然控制议会的多数席位。他们挑选新总理预计下个星期会有结果，如果不能满足反政府组织的要求，示威者可能还会走上街头。

Robert Broadfoot runs Political and Economic Risk Consultancy, a Hong Kong company that assesses business risks around Asia.

布劳德福特是评估整个亚洲地区商业风险的“香港政治经济风险资讯公司”的负责人。

"This is not the end of the crisis by any means, I don 't think. It's just moving on to the next chapter. There's still a large number of uncertainties 9. And, when it comes to businesses like tourism, this is going to be a disastrous 10 high season," he said.

他说：“我认为，这场危机根本没有结束，它只是进入到下一个阶段而已，目前仍存在很多不确定的因素。对于旅游业这样的行业来说，这将是一个灾难性的季节。”

Broadfoot says it will be hard to determine just how much damage the political crisis has done to the economy, compared with the damage caused by the global slump 11. Foreign investment is likely to shrink and demand for exports will be weak, because of the worldwide financial crisis.

布劳德福特说，同全球经济下滑造成的损害相比，这场政治危机究竟给泰国经济造成了多大损失很难确定。由于全球范围内的金融危机，外国投资有可能萎缩，出口需求也将出现疲软。

He says one way the Thai government can minimize the pain and help build a foundation for future economic growth is to focus on improving its infrastructure 12, such as roads and schools.

他说，泰国政府如何把痛苦降低到最低限度，为未来经济增长建造根基的一个办法就是，集中精力改善像道路和学校这样的基础设施。

"Probably the best that could happen now is if they get some sort of agreement in the political process, even if they're going to get revolving-door governments, where you can push ahead with major infrastructure and other programs, at least A., to create opportunities, and B., to create the impression that the economy's not just stuck in quicksand," he said.

布劳德福特说：“也许，目前有可能出现的最佳局面是，如果他们在政治进程中达成某种协议，即使政府不断更换，主要的基础设施和其它项目若在其中得到推行，你至少可以创造机会，并且给人造成一种印象，那就是，泰国经济不只是陷入危机之中。”

Broadfoot points out one advantage to focusing on infrastructure projects is that they are not dependent on foreign investment.

布劳德福特指出，集中解决抓基础设施项目的一大优势是，他们不用依赖外国投资。

The political uncertainty 13 and the effects of the global economic crisis have factored into the decision by international credit rating agencies to downgrade ratings in Thailand. That means the government and businesses here will pay more to borrow money. However, Thailand's central bank may have eased some of the pain this week, when it surprised financial markets with its largest rate cut ever. The benchmark lending rate dropped a full percentage point, to 2.75 percent.

政治的不确定性以及全球经济危机的影响，已经被国际信贷评估机构作为降低泰国评分的抉择因素考虑在内。这意味着，这里的政府和公司要付更多的钱借款。但是，令金融市场惊讶的是，泰国中央银行本星期有史以来最大幅度削减利率，这个举措可能已经缓解了部分痛苦。基准借贷利率整整下跌了一个百分点，达到2.75%。