经济学人375:煤炭 未来的能源

　　Coal

煤炭

The fuel of the future, unfortunately

很不幸，这便是未来的能源

A cheap, ubiquitous and flexible fuel, with just one problem

这是一种廉价、易得且用途广泛的燃料，但仅存在着一个问题

WHAT more could one want? It is cheap and simple to extract, ship and burn. It is abundant: proven reserves amount to 109 years of current consumption, reckons BP, a British energy giant. They are mostly in politically stable places. There is a wide choice of dependable sellers, such as BHP Billiton (Anglo-Australian), Glencore (Anglo-Swiss), Peabody Energy and Arch Coal.

还能奢望更多的好条件吗？这是一种廉价，且便于获取、装运和燃烧的能源。它的储量十分丰富：英国能源巨头BP证实，现有的煤炭储量可供人们维持目前的消耗量长达109年。煤炭资源还大多分布于政治稳定的地区。可靠的煤炭供应商数量众多，如必和必拓、嘉能可，以及皮博迪和阿齐。

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Other fuels are beset 1 by state interference and cartels, but in this industry consumers—in heating, power generation and metallurgy—are firmly in charge, keeping prices low. Just as this wonder-fuel once powered the industrial revolution, it now offers the best chance for poor countries wanting to get rich.

其他能源均被国家或者卡特尔寡头所控制，但在煤炭产业当中，其供暖、电力和冶金业的消费者处于绝对主导地位，令价格持续低廉。正如当年这一完美的能源推动着工业革命的发展，现在它也为贫穷国家们提供着发家致富的绝佳机会。

Such arguments are the basis of a new PR campaign launched by Peabody, the world's largest private coal company. And coal would indeed be a boon 2, were it not for one small problem: it is devastatingly 3 dirty. Mining, transport, storage and burning are fraught 4 with mess, as well as danger. Deep mines put workers in intolerably filthy 5 and dangerous conditions. But opencast mining, now the source of much of the world's coal, rips away topsoil and gobbles water. Transporting coal brings a host of environmental problems.

如此的论断正是皮博迪公司发起的新一轮公关活动的核心内容，而目前该公司是全世界最大的私人煤炭企业。煤炭本该成为上帝的惠泽，而若不是因为这一个小小的问题：它的破坏性污染。开采、运输、储存和燃烧使用的一系列过程中，不仅充满着问题，还具有相当的危险性。深入地下的矿井意味着矿工们要在难以忍受的肮脏以及危险的条件下工作。但目前大多数煤矿所进行的地表开采，不仅会使地表土壤流失，同时也消耗着大量的水。煤炭的运输还会带来一系列的环境问题。

The increased emissions 6 of carbon dioxide from soaring coal consumption threaten to fry the planet, as the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change reminded everyone in a new report this week. The CO2 makes the oceans acid; burning coal also produces sulphur dioxide, which makes buildings crumble 7 and lungs sting, and other toxic 8 chemicals. By some counts, coal-fired power stations emit more radioactivity than nuclear ones. They release tiny, lethal 9 particulates 10. Per unit generated, coal-fired stations cause far more deaths than nuclear ones, and more even than oil-fired ones.

正如联合国政府间气候变化专门委员会在这周最新的报告中所提醒的，持续增长煤炭消耗带来的二氧化碳排放的增加，使得地球温室效应加剧。二氧化碳的增加使得海水的酸度增加；与此同时，煤炭的燃烧产生二氧化硫和其他一些有毒化学物质，而这导致了建筑物结构的损伤以及人类肺部的损害。根据某种计算方式，煤炭发电厂所排放的辐射物质甚至比核电厂所排放的还要多。各大电厂所排放的都是极小的致命微粒。而煤电厂每单位发电排放的致命微粒要远比核电厂多，甚至比石油发电厂还要多。

But poverty kills people too, and slow growth can cost politicians their jobs. Two decades of environmental worries are proving only a marginal constraint 11 on the global coal industry. Some are trying to get out: in America Consol Energy is selling five mines in West Virginia to concentrate on shale 12 gas. Big coal-burners such as American Electric Power and Duke Energy are shutting coal-fired plants. Yet despite America's shale-gas boom, the federal Energy Information Administration reckons that by 2040 the country will still be generating 22% of its electricity from coal. The International Energy Agency has even predicted that, barring policy changes, coal may rival oil in importance by 2017. As countries get richer they tend to look for alternatives—China is scrambling 13 to curb 14 its rising consumption. But others, such as India and Africa, are set to take up the slack.

但贫穷问题也同样危害着人们的生命安全，而缓慢的经济增长更是会令政治家们失去自己的饭碗。二十年来的环境问题，证实了目前对于全球煤炭行业仅仅存在着一个最基本的限制。部分煤炭企业则试图抽身离开：美国康寿能源公司正在叫卖位于维吉尼亚西部的五个煤矿，从而专注于页岩气的开发。像美国电力和杜克能源等大型煤炭消耗的电力公司，则着手关闭他们旗下的煤电厂。但尽管美国页岩气开采实现了产量增长的井喷，联邦能源信息管理局预计截至2040年全国发电量中的22%会来自煤电厂。国际能源总署甚至还预言说，除非政策发生变化，煤炭的地位很可能在2017年便超越石油。随着国家的富强，宏观管理当局总倾向于在能源方面寻找煤炭的替代品---中国目前正积极削减节节攀升的煤炭消耗。但像印度和非洲地区的其他国家，正准备填补煤炭需求的短缺。

America's gas boom has prompted its coal miners to seek new export markets, sending prices plunging 15 on world markets. So long as consumers do not pay for coal's horrible side-effects, that makes it irresistibly 16 cheap. In Germany power from coal now costs half the price of watts 17 from a gas-fired power station. It is a paradox 18 that coal is booming in a country that in other respects is the greenest in Europe. Its production of power from cheap, dirty brown coal (lignite) is now at 162 billion kilowatt 19 hours, the highest since the days of the decrepit 20 East Germany.

美国天然气市场的繁荣，促使着本地煤炭企业到海外拓展市场，推动者煤炭国际价格的下跌。只要一天消费者们仍不用对燃烧煤炭的副作用承担责任，那么煤炭价格将依旧保持那让人难以拒绝的低廉。在德国，煤炭发电的成本仅为天然气发电的一半。这是一个多么自相矛盾的情况：煤炭正推动着其经济的发展，而在其他方面，德国却是欧洲最环保的国家。由廉价、肮脏的棕色煤块（褐煤）所产生的电力，目前已经达到了自东德时期以来的最高水平，达到了1620亿千瓦时。

Japan, too, is turning to coal in the wake of the Fukushima nuclear disaster. On April 11th the government approved a new energy plan entrenching 21 its role as a long-term electricity source.

随着福岛核电站事故的发生，日本也转向于使用煤炭发电。在4月11号，日本政府颁布了新的能源规划，以巩固煤炭作为长期发电燃料的地位。

International coal companies face two worries. One is that governments may eventually impose punitive 22 levies 23, tariffs 24 and restrictions 25 on their mucky product. The other is the global glut 26. Prices for thermal 27 coal are at 80-85 a tonne, which barely covers the cost of capital. Some Australian producers are even mining at a loss, having signed freight contracts with railways and ports that make them pay for capacity whether they use it or not.

国际煤炭公司面临着两大问题。首先是各大政府或许最终会对他们肮脏的产品征收惩罚性的税费、增加关税以及增设限制。其次，便是全球煤炭市场的供过于求。电煤的价格位于每公吨80至85美元之间，而这仅仅只够补偿资金成本。由于签订了铁路和港口的运输合同，部分澳洲供应商甚至还处于亏损的经营状态。

One answer to that is cost-cutting and efficiency, much stressed by companies such as BHP Billiton. Unlike oil and gas, coal is geologically simple and does not require a costly 28 array of drills, platforms and pipes. If the price is too low, companies can decide to stop production and await better times. But thriftiness 29 with capital has its limits: the cost of mining is going up, as the easiest coal seams are worked out.

其中一个解决之道，在于成本削减和效率提升，而一些公司已大力着手实施，例如必和必拓。与油气资源不同，煤炭开采的地理复杂程度低，不需要成本高昂的钻井平台和输送管道。如果价格太低，公司可以选择停止开采以等待更好的机会。但缩减投资规模也有它的局限：在最便利的煤层开采完毕后，接下来的煤炭开采成本便会持续上升。

Some companies have tried to switch efforts to “met” coal, which fuels smelters. This was thought to be scarcer and more profitable. But that theory has suffered. Supplies of met coal have proved more abundant than expected.

一些公司已经尝试去开发冶金煤炭市场。冶金煤炭，是专为熔炉供热使用的煤炭，而这部分的资源曾被人认为是较为稀缺且利润丰厚。然而，这一想法显然与事实不同。冶金煤炭的供应已经被证实了远比设想的要充足。

Perhaps the biggest hope for all involved in the coal industry is technology. Mining and transporting coal will always be messy, but this could be overlooked were it burned cheaply and cleanly. Promising 30 technologies abound 31: pulverising coal, extracting gas from it, scrubbing emissions and capturing the CO2. But none of these seems scalable in the way needed to dent 32 the colossal 33 damage done by coal. And all require large subsidies—from consumers, shareholders 34 or taxpayers 35.

也许对所有煤炭行业相关的人来说，最大的希望是在于科技的发展。虽然煤炭开采和运输问题将一直存在，然而，如果它的燃烧利用能变得更为干净和低廉，上述小问题肯定会被大家所忽略。大量的技术值得我们去期待：煤炭粉碎、煤块提取燃气、气体排放净化以及二氧化碳捕获。但对于减少由煤炭造成的巨大伤害方面，这些技术都没有所需要的促进作用。与此同时，这些技术的开发还需要来自消费者、企业股东以及纳税人的巨额资助。

A 5.2 billion taxpayer-supported clean-coal plant in Mississippi incorporates all the latest technology. But at 6,800 per kilowatt, it will be the costliest 36 power plant yet built. At those prices, coal is going to stay dirty.

在密西西比州，一座由政府出资价值52亿美元的清洁煤炭发电厂，集中了所有最新科技。但那儿每千瓦时的发电成本高达6800美元，创下了有史以来的电厂发电最高的成本。如此高价的清洁代价，意味着煤炭目前还得贴着污染的标签。