经济学人302:零售业 传统采购与网购

　　Business

商业报道

Retailing 2

零售业

The raw and the clicked

传统采购与网购

Grocery has so far resisted the rise of online shopping. That may be about to change

杂货店可能将无法再抵制住网购的盛行

THERE is a huge difference between being late and being too late, said Dalton Philips, the boss of Morrisons, on November 21st, as he announced the launch of the British grocer's online-shopping service.

莫里森公司的老总菲利普于11月21日宣布实行英国杂货店商网购服务，并且说道：迟了和太迟了之间有着很大差别。

Morrisons' competitors have been selling broccoli 3 and baby food via the internet for more than a decade.

莫里森公司的竞争对手已经通过网络销售花椰菜和婴幼儿食品长达十多年了。

2_副本.jpgBritain's fourth-largest grocery chain had shunned 5 e-commerce as a profit-sapping distraction 6.

英国第四大百货连锁店一直将电子商务视作其利润的瓜分者并加以规避。

It paid with falling market share and the defection of some of its best customers to Tesco, the country's biggest grocer, and Ocado, an online-only supermarket.

而代价是不仅丢失了市场份额，也失去了它们最好的客户。这些客户转而投向英国最大的食品杂货商乐购公司和只做网上超市的Ocado公司。

Morrisons' change of heart will be noticed beyond Britain.

莫里森公司的回心转意将会引起英国以及以外的关注。

Grocery is the biggest category in retailing but the most resistant 7 to the advance of online shopping.

食品杂货是零售业中最大的一类，但也是最抵制网上购物发展的一类。

Even in Britain, where it has gone furthest, it may account for just 5% of sales this year.

即使是在英国，网上购物也已经发展很久了。可能会占到今年总销售额的5%。

But it is growing fast everywhere.

这种迅速发展的网购势头随处可见。

The Boston Consulting Group expects the global market to grow from 36 billion this year to 100 billion by 2018.

波士顿咨询集团预计截止到2018年，全球的市场将会从今年的360亿美元增长到1000亿美元。

Grocers have held back for good reasons.

杂货商放慢脚步是有原因的。

Like many bricks-and-mortar merchants they fret 8 that online commerce will shrivel sales in stores but not the costs associated with them.

很多实体商铺的老板担心在线商务会其他们的销售额下降，但是却不会降低其相应的成本。

Grocery, with its tiny profit margins 9, adds complications.

作为收益颇微的食品杂货更使这一情况变得雪上加霜。

Virtual shopping-carts contain dozens of low-value items, which must be stored at different temperatures.

虚拟的购物车中包含着很多低价值的物品，这些物品都需要在不同温度的环境中储存。

Retailers 11 can either get in-store staff to pick them off the shelves, which becomes disruptive as volumes rise, or build dedicated 12 warehouses 13, which is costly 14. So are home deliveries: even in thickly settled Britain each one costs grocers around 10, but shoppers typically pay little more than 3.

零售商们只能要要店里的员工把它们挑拣下架，然而数量一多就变得凌乱不堪；或者是花巨资建立专门的仓库。送货上门也是这样：即使是在人口密集的英国，每个物品也将花去杂货商10英镑，然而购物者却只需要为此支付不到3英镑的费用。

Consumers are also wary 15.

消费者也感到担心。

Many want to examine fresh produce before they buy it.

他们很多人想要在购买之前先检查生鲜农产品。

They recoil 16 when online grocers deliver substitutions instead of what they ordered.

当他们收到的物品不是他们订购的而是在线杂货商发出的替代品时，他们会撤销订单。

Many shoppers try grocery websites but get discouraged, says David Shukri of the Institute of Grocery Distribution in London.

伦敦超市物流研究所的大卫说道：很多人试图通过杂货商的网站退货但是‘屡屡受挫'。

Among pioneers there have been spectacular wipeouts.

在众多先驱者当中，有很多全军覆没。

California's Webvan expanded at breakneck speed, pampered 17 customers with services like home delivery within half-hour slots, lost control of costs and collapsed 18 in 2001.

其中位于加州的Webvan公司以极快的速度扩张业务，为消费者们提供半小时送货上门的服务，导致其无法控制成本，最终于2001年倒闭。

Its demise 19 deterred 20 imitators.

这一教训使很多后来的模仿者望而却步。

In Britain Ocado has yet to make much money after more than a decade.

在英国，Ocado公司在经营10多年后还没有多少盈利。

Tesco claims its online operation, with nearly half the British market, is profitable.

乐购声称其占据了英国将近一半市场的网上业务是有利可图的。

But it uses murky 21 accounting 22 for the cost of stores, where much of the produce is picked, says Andrew Gwynn of Exane BNP Paribas, an investment bank.

但是Exane BNP巴黎投资银行的安德鲁?格温表示，该公司在对很多提供农产品的店面进行成本计算时采用了模糊化处理。

Yet to shun 4 online is to risk losing grocers' best customers, prosperous families and those with children.

但是回避网络意味着将失去很多杂货店的最佳消费人群。

It really is a prisoner's dilemma 24 and you can't afford not to play, says Chris Biggs of BCG.

比如那些富裕的以及有孩子的家庭。波士顿咨询集团的克里斯?比格斯表示：这真是一个如困兽般进退两难的地步，你无法承担不参与其中所带来的损失。

Guess who's delivering dinner

猜猜谁在给我们提供晚餐

In America, today's Webvans look sturdier.

在美国，今天的Webvans公司看上去很坚实。

Peapod, the biggest American online grocer, acts as the internet arm of the Giant and Stop & Shop chains; all are part of Ahold, a Dutch giant.

美国最大的在线杂货商豆荚公司，充当了Stop & Shop连锁店巨头在互联网中的左膀右臂；而它们都是荷兰巨头阿霍德集团的一部分。

It has shown a flair 25 for innovation: Peapod's customers can buy by scanning images of products on delivery lorries and coffee cups with their mobile phones.

该企业充分表示了其创新性：豆荚公司的客户可以用手机扫描送货车或是咖啡杯上的商品图片来购买相应产品。

Lazy Manhattanites have been ordering Thanksgiving feasts from FreshDirect, the second-largest online grocer, which is partly owned by Morrisons. Both ventures prosper 23 because they cater 26 to well-off families, largely in cities.

慵懒的曼哈顿人已经开始通过FreshDirect公司来订购感恩节大餐了。该公司是全美第二大在线杂货商，莫里森公司拥有其部分股份。由于这些服务的对象大多是城市里富裕的家庭，因而这些新兴服务都很成功。

American behemoths are unlikely to leave the field to specialists.

美国的巨头公司们也不会袖手旁观，把机会让给业内行家。

Amazon began fresh-food deliveries in Seattle in 2007 and in Los Angeles last year.

2007年，亚马逊在西雅图就开始它们的生鲜运送业务，去年发展到洛杉矶。

It is expected to add maybe 20 cities in 2014, some abroad.

它们预计到2014年将会把业务拓展到20个城市，包括海外城市。

Traditional grocery chains will respond.

传统的食品杂货连锁店也会对此作出反应。

They are determined 27 not to repeat the mistakes other sorts of retailers made at the turn of the century, when they were too afraid of Amazon, says Robert Hetu of Gartner, a technology-research firm.

一家技术研究公司的罗伯特表示: 它们决心不会重蹈覆辙，重复其它零售商在世纪之交时犯的错误，它们那时过于惧怕亚马逊。

Safeway, the second-largest supermarket chain in North America, is the only one besides Ahold with a substantial online operation.

北美地区第二大连锁超市Safeway公司是除了阿霍德集团外的唯一一家拥有大量网购业务的公司。

Walmart, the world's biggest retailer 10, remains 28 hesitant.

全球最大的零售商沃尔玛公司仍持观望态度。

Neil Ashe, its head of e-commerce, has questioned whether the chain's budget-minded customers want groceries delivered.

其电子商务主管阿西亚对它们那些精明的客户是否需要食品杂货运送服务表示质疑。

But this may be changing. A pilot project in San Francisco and San Jose is being extended to Denver.

但是他可能改变想法。在旧金山和圣何塞的试点项目正扩展到丹佛。

Walmart Labs in Silicon 29 Valley has imported many of the people who developed the online-grocery business at Asda, its British subsidiary.

沃尔玛在硅谷的实验室先后引进许多在其英国子公司阿斯达开发网上杂货业务的人。

On November 25th Walmart said that its new chief executive would be Doug McMillon, who as head of the international operation is responsible for Asda.

沃尔玛于11月25日表示将任命阿斯达国际化经营的负责人麦克米伦为其首席执行官。

He may speed Walmart's halting American effort.

他可能会加速沃尔玛网络业务的进程。

If a big American retailer plunges 30 in, others will take it seriously and the market will expand rapidly, says Mr Biggs.

比格斯先生，如果一家美国零售巨头进来分一杯羹的时候，其它企业就都认真起来了，市场将很快被拓展。

With luck, the newcomers will avoid the mistakes of earlier stumblers.

如果运气好的话，这些新来的可以避免早期失足者的错误。

Where internet grocery is still immature 31, supermarkets can encourage shoppers to click and collect from stores rather than spoil them with home delivery.

网上超市还很不成熟，超市可以鼓励顾客从商店点击领取，而不是送货上门的方式。

A likelier model for sprawling 32, car-crazy America is France, where shoppers pick up groceries from drive-through supermarktes.

对于一个汽车泛滥的美国来说，法国的做法可能是美国模仿的对象。

As volumes rise, picking will shift to shopperless dark stores and to automated 33, super-efficient fulfilment centres like Ocado's.

在那里购物都是从免下车超市自行选取商品。随着业务量的上升，选购的方式可能慢慢演化成看不见人流的隐形商店，并逐渐变成类似于Ocado的高效、自动化物流中心。

BCG reckons that shoppers who become online converts spend 30% more.

波士顿咨询集团估计，成为网上购物者将多消费30％以上。

Another boon 34 is that distribution centres on cheap land consume less capital than urban stores.

另一福音是在廉价地区的分配中心的花销比市区门店的少。

Online grocers can thus earn a decent return on capital even with thin operating margins, Mr Gwynn says.

因此，温格说，网上杂货店可以赚取可观的回报即使利润微薄。

He expects Ocado, which will share its second fulfilment centre with Morrisons, to achieve its first proper profit next year.

他预计Ocado公司，这将与莫里森公司共享其第二物流中心，于明年实第一次实现适当的利润。

But as more consumers do their bulk buying online, and grocers start shutting their bigger urban stores, there will be a lot of large retail 1 properties looking for new tenants 35.

但随着网购消费者的增多做，杂货店开始关闭其更大的市区门店，这样以来就会有很多的大型零售物业寻找新的租户。

Morrisons does not have the luxury of starting slowly.

莫里森承受不起慢慢来的巨大代价。

It hopes to make up for its late start by entrancing shoppers.

它希望让客户沉迷于其开展的业务以弥补起步较晚的劣势。

It will post frank ratings of its produce to build trust, a trick learnt from FreshDirect.

它们将发布产品的信用评级制度，这是从FreshDirect学到的。

If a customer doesn't like the look of the fresh food delivered to her door, she can send it back and claim a voucher 36.

如果客户对送到她们门口的新鲜食品不满意，她们可以要求退货并索要发票。

Isn't this the sort of coddling that wrecked 37 Webvan?

这会不会像Webvan公司那样过分纵容消费者呢？

No, says Mr Philips, for three reasons: Morrisons will exploit its buying power, its emphasis on fresh food brings relatively 38 high margins and it will piggyback on Ocado's operations.

不会，飞利浦先生认为有三个原因：莫里森将利用其购买力，为购买新鲜食物带来相对较高的利润率，同时也会捎带开展Ocado的业务。

The latecomer will beguile 39 shoppers.

后来者会欺骗消费者，

It may be harder to charm shareholders 40.

也将更难讨好股东们。