经济学人288:通货膨胀 价格是一块心病
时间:2019-02-04 作者:英语课 分类:经济学人商业系列
Finance and economics Inflation
财经商业 通货膨胀
The price is a blight 1
价格是一块心病
The rich world, and especially the euro zone, risks harmfully low inflation
欧元区,富人世界,正遭受低通胀率的困袭
WHEN central banks adopted quantitative 2 easing and other unorthodox means to buoy 3 economies holed by the financial crisis, many feared that the result would be out-of-control inflation.
当央行采取了量化宽松政策并采取其他的非常规手段去刺激被经融危机滞涩的经济时,很多人担心这结果会是失控的通货膨胀。
Asset prices have certainly soared.
金融资产的价格会随之飙升。
But consumer prices have not.
但消费价格不会。
2_副本.jpgIndeed, the growing fear is that rich countries may be entering a twilight 4 zone of ultra-low inflation.
确切地说,这是人们逐渐害怕富裕国家的经济进入一个介于高通胀和低通胀之间的模糊区域。
A downward lurch 5 has been most notable in the euro area, where annual inflation dropped from an already low 1.1% in September to 0.7% in October; a year ago it stood at 2.5%.
最显著的下降发生在欧元区,那里年通胀率由一年前的2.5%在9月份掉到1.1%,在10月份掉到0.7%。
It is now a percentage point lower than the European Central Bank's inflation target of below but close to 2%.
现在它的通胀率还是地狱欧洲央行的通胀目标值略低于2%。
The ECB lowered its main policy rate to 0.5% in May; on November 7th its governing council, responding to the weak inflation figures, reduced the interest rate further, to 0.25%.
欧洲央行在五月份削弱了整体税率政策到0.5%;在11月7号,管理委员会进一步减少利率到0.25%。这个委员会专门负责弱势通胀情况。
Elsewhere, too, inflation is low and falling.
在别处也是一样,通胀率很低而且持续下滑。
Almost five years after the Federal Reserve led the way with quantitative easing, inflation is well below the Fed's 2% target.
美联储实行量化宽松政策后大约五年时间,通胀率已经很稳定的保持在2%以下的目标。
In August this wider measure stood at little more than 1%. Across the G7 economies, inflation has been weak this year and has recently fallen back to 1.3%; a year ago it was 1.8%.
8月,这项更宽广的措施让通胀率维持在略高于1%。纵观七国集团的经济,通货膨胀在今年持续弱势并且最近掉到1.3%;一年前是1.8%。
Even inBritain, which has the highest inflation in both the G7 and the European Union, the rate has been broadly stable this year.
就是英国,通胀今年保持总体稳定,在7国集团和欧盟里,有着最高的通胀率达到2.7%。
Slack energy prices have contributed to recent declines in overall inflation.
下滑的能源价格对最近整体通胀下滑也有一定影响。
That is a welcome development, boosting the purchasing power of both businesses and households.
这是一个受欢迎的进展,刺激了购买力,不管是对于商业还是房产。
But core inflation, which by excluding the more volatile 6 elements of energy and food offers a surer guide to underlying 7 price pressures, tells a less heartening story.
但是核心通胀,它排除了更多的挥发元素,如能源、食品,给物价压力垫定了更厚实的基础,这无疑是令人不那么振奋的消息。
Across the G7 core consumer-price inflation has been stuck over the past year at 1.4%.
纵观七国集团的核心消费者价格,去年通胀持续卡在1.4%。
On the Fed's measure it is just 1.2%.
在联邦储备系统的调控下,它只有1.2%。
And in the euro zone, core inflation has fallen over the past year from 1.5% to 0.8%, matching the record low of early 2010.
并且在欧元区,核心通胀率已经由去年的1.5%降到0.8%,与2010年的低纪录一致。
One bright spot that has helped to keep G7 inflation from falling further isJapan, where the reflationary drive of Shinzo Abe, the prime minister, is stoking hopes that the past decade and a half of deflation may at last be coming to an end.
日本帮助七国集团只住通胀下滑趋势是一大亮点,它的通货再膨胀的驱动者,安倍晋三首相,正使人们燃起希望,过去十五年的通货紧缩可能最终结束。
Overall inflation has risen to 1.1%—higher than in the euro area—and core inflation is now at zero.
整体的通胀会升到1.1%—比欧元区高—并且核心通胀现在处于0。
But the immense difficulty that successive Japanese governments have encountered in trying to escape the shackles 8 of deflation serves as a warning of the danger of letting inflation fall too low.
但是历任日本政府所面临的巨大困难是,在尝试避免通货紧缩的桎梏时,不想充当危险警报器,让通胀降得太低。
Once people start to anticipate declining rather than rising prices, it can be very hard to reverse their expectations.
但一度人们开始预期价格下跌而不是升高,所以很难扭转人们的预期。
Abandoning reserve
撤销储备金
That danger is less acute in Americathan in the euro area largely because the Fed is more proactive than the ECB.
与欧元区相比,在美国没有那么严重的危机,很大程度上因为美联储比欧洲央行更有前瞻性。
It surprised the markets in September by sustaining quantitative easing at its present pace of 85 billion of asset-purchases a month, rather than starting to curb 9 it.
9月,它延续量化宽松政策,也就是每个月不去限制资产购买而是用850亿美元购买资产的步幅,让市场振奋起来。
A study by economists 10 at the Federal Reserve, published this week, has fuelled speculation 11 that it may keep interest rates at rock bottom even longer by lowering the level of unemployment at which it will consider rate increases from the current 6.5%.
这星期出版的美联储经济学家们的研究结论使投资充满动力,它可能会更久地保持低利率在一个最低点,措施是降低失业率,因为失业会将利率从现行的6.5%提高。
By contrast, the euro area looks increasingly vulnerable to a slide into deflation.
相比而言,欧元区的经济看起来更容易受通货紧缩的冲击。
Although the region emerged this spring from a painfully protracted 12 double-dip recession, the recovery is expected to be a feeble one.
尽管,欧元区在经历痛苦而蛮长的双底衰退之后迎来了复苏,复苏的程度仍被预期很微弱无力。
GDP will fall by 0.4% this year and rise by only 1.1% in 2014, according to forecasts from the European Commission published on November 5th.
根据欧洲委员会在11月5号的展望,今年GDP会降到0.4%,在2014年也只能上涨1.1%。
Such weak growth is unlikely to overcome the forces pushing inflation down.
这样缓慢的增长不可能扭转让通胀率下滑的颓势。
Output will remain well below its full potential next year, estimates the commission; all that idle capacity acts as a drag on prices.
委员会分析明年的出口量将很可能持续低迷;所有闲置的生产力将会对价格起到副作用。
Unemployment across the euro area will stay stuck at a woefully high 12.2%, which will keep wages down.
整个欧元区的失业率会持续卡在令人痛苦的12.2%上,这无疑会让工资水平下降。
The strength of the euro will also exert a downward pull.
欧洲整体的购买力将会下滑。
It has been trading this week at 1.35, more than 5% higher than a year ago; on a trade-weighted basis it is 8% higher.
本周它与美元的汇率处在1比1.35,比去年高5%;从贸易加权上看高了8%。
Very low inflation in the euro zone makes it much more difficult for uncompetitive countries, predominantly in southernEurope, to regain 13 lost ground.
欧元区的极低通胀使无竞争力的国家更加艰难回复兴盛,尤其是南欧的国家们。
Workers tend to resist nominal 14 cuts in pay more fiercely than they do the subtler erosion of their income through inflation.
工人们怀有抵制心态,他们需要名义上付更多的钱,这样就很微妙地侵蚀了工资额度。
If inflation in the countries with which the weak economies trade is high, they can improve their competitiveness simply by keeping their rate lower.
如果一个国家里的通胀是建立在脆弱经济和高贸易量上,他们只要保持低税率就可以提高竞争力。
That is in essence howGermanygained a big edge in the first decade of the euro.
这就是前十年德国在欧洲占有重要地位的关键。
But with overall inflation so low, peripheral 15 countries must instead adjust through outright 16 deflation or something close to it, meaning a freeze or absolute cuts in wages.
但是整体的通胀率如此低下,小国家们必须作出调整,不能使经济完全通货紧缩或是接近这样。否则就意味着工资的冻结或大幅度降薪。
Already, in September, when euro-wide inflation was 1.1%, prices were falling by 1% inGreece.
9月份,整个欧元区通胀率为1.1%,希腊的物价已下跌了1%。
They were flat inIrelandand rising by just 0.3% inPortugal.
爱尔兰保持平稳,葡萄牙升高了0.3%。
A sustained period of deflation would be particularly hard on the euro zone's periphery 17, weighed down by debt.
处在欧元区边缘的国家持续的通货紧缩很难抑制,它们被债务拖累;
Cyprus,Ireland,PortugalandSpainhave high public and private debt;Greece and Italyhave high public debt.
塞浦路斯,爱尔兰,葡萄牙和西班牙哟很高的公共债务和私人债务。希腊和意大利有着很高的公共债务。
When prices are falling, debt, which is fixed 18 in nominal terms, becomes more onerous 19 in real terms.
当价格下跌时,债务在合约上不变,就会使它们负担更重。
Higher inflation, in contrast, makes escaping heavy debt much less burdensome.
更高的通胀,相反会让他们逃离沉重债务,减轻很大负担。
Central banks have had to move beyond past orthodoxies in order to coax 20 a modest recovery from the ruins of the financial crisis.
央行已经超越了正统做法,目的是引导出一个温和的经济复苏,拯救被金融危机破坏的经济。
Now, to avoid the blight of stagnating 21 or falling prices, they may have to venture still further into unconventional territory.
现在,要避免经济发展的滞涩或是下跌的物价他们可能必须进一步冒险,去探索非常规领域。
1.respond to 对…作出反应
Never respond to requests for personal or account information online ( or over the phone).
绝对不要响应那些在线要你提供个人或账户信息的请求(或通过电话的这类请求)。
A spokesman didn't respond to requests for comment.
该公司一位发言人没有回应记者的置评请求。
2.fall back 后退,退却
We must have something to fall back upon.
我们总得有点可以依靠的东西。
The oil price may not rise much further, and could even fall back.
石油价格可能不会持续走高,甚至会出现回落之势。
3.contribute to 促成 ;投稿;有助于
Such actions would contribute to the desired structural 22 transition.
此类举措将有助于实现中国渴望的结构转型。
They also may contribute to preventing severe disease and death.
这些药物还可有助于预防严重疾病和死亡。
4.offer to 提供
A sep is a retirement 23 savings 24 plan that small companies often offer to their employees.
一个sep是一个退休储蓄计划,是小公司经常为员工提供的。
Another significant gap exists between mobile access to e-resources presently offered by libraries and the services libraries wish to offer to mobile users.
另一个显著的断层是现有的移动设备接入电子资源与图书馆希望向移动读者提供的服务之间的差别。
- The apple crop was wiped out by blight.枯萎病使苹果全无收成。
- There is a blight on all his efforts.他的一切努力都遭到挫折。
- He said it was only a quantitative difference.他说这仅仅是数量上的差别。
- We need to do some quantitative analysis of the drugs.我们对药物要进行定量分析。
- The party did little to buoy up her spirits.这次聚会并没有让她振作多少。
- The buoy floated back and forth in the shallow water.这个浮标在浅水里漂来漂去。
- Twilight merged into darkness.夕阳的光辉融于黑暗中。
- Twilight was sweet with the smell of lilac and freshly turned earth.薄暮充满紫丁香和新翻耕的泥土的香味。
- It has been suggested that the ground movements were a form of lurch movements.地震的地面运动曾被认为是一种突然倾斜的运动形式。
- He walked with a lurch.他步履蹒跚。
- With the markets being so volatile,investments are at great risk.由于市场那么变化不定,投资冒着很大的风险。
- His character was weak and volatile.他这个人意志薄弱,喜怒无常。
- The underlying theme of the novel is very serious.小说隐含的主题是十分严肃的。
- This word has its underlying meaning.这个单词有它潜在的含义。
- a country struggling to free itself from the shackles of colonialism 为摆脱殖民主义的枷锁而斗争的国家
- The cars of the train are coupled together by shackles. 火车的车厢是用钩链连接起来的。
- I could not curb my anger.我按捺不住我的愤怒。
- You must curb your daughter when you are in church.你在教堂时必须管住你的女儿。
- The sudden rise in share prices has confounded economists. 股价的突然上涨使经济学家大惑不解。
- Foreign bankers and economists cautiously welcomed the minister's initiative. 外国银行家和经济学家对部长的倡议反应谨慎。 来自《简明英汉词典》
- Her mind is occupied with speculation.她的头脑忙于思考。
- There is widespread speculation that he is going to resign.人们普遍推测他要辞职。
- The war was protracted for four years. 战争拖延了四年。 来自《简明英汉词典》
- We won victory through protracted struggle. 经过长期的斗争,我们取得了胜利。 来自《简明英汉词典》
- He is making a bid to regain his World No.1 ranking.他正为重登世界排名第一位而努力。
- The government is desperate to regain credibility with the public.政府急于重新获取公众的信任。
- The king was only the nominal head of the state. 国王只是这个国家名义上的元首。
- The charge of the box lunch was nominal.午餐盒饭收费很少。
- We dealt with the peripheral aspects of a cost reduction program.我们谈到了降低成本计划的一些外围问题。
- The hotel provides the clerk the service and the peripheral traveling consultation.旅舍提供票务服务和周边旅游咨询。
- If you have a complaint you should tell me outright.如果你有不满意的事,你应该直率地对我说。
- You should persuade her to marry you outright.你应该彻底劝服她嫁给你。
- Geographically, the UK is on the periphery of Europe.从地理位置上讲,英国处于欧洲边缘。
- The periphery of the retina is very sensitive to motion.视网膜的外围对运动非常敏感。
- Have you two fixed on a date for the wedding yet?你们俩选定婚期了吗?
- Once the aim is fixed,we should not change it arbitrarily.目标一旦确定,我们就不应该随意改变。
- My household duties were not particularly onerous.我的家务活并不繁重。
- This obligation sometimes proves onerous.这一义务有时被证明是艰巨的。
- I had to coax the information out of him.我得用好话套出他掌握的情况。
- He tried to coax the secret from me.他试图哄骗我说出秘方。
- I feel I'm stagnating in this job. 我觉得,干这份工作我没有长进。
- ITT was stagnating when Geneen became the chief executive officer in 1959. 1959年吉宁出任行政总负责人时,国际电话电报公司正处于不景气时期。 来自辞典例句
- The storm caused no structural damage.风暴没有造成建筑结构方面的破坏。
- The North American continent is made up of three great structural entities.北美大陆是由三个构造单元组成的。
- She wanted to enjoy her retirement without being beset by financial worries.她想享受退休生活而不必为金钱担忧。
- I have to put everything away for my retirement.我必须把一切都积蓄起来以便退休后用。