经济学人:纾困希腊?默克尔成压垮欧元的最后稻草(下)

 　　Would she consider the version of Eurobonds suggested by Germany’s advisory 1 council ofeconomic “wise men”? Under this scheme, debts exceeding 60% of GDP would be transferred into a fund with joint 2 liability and paid off by the debtor 3 countries over 20-25 years. Wolfgang Schauble, the finance minister, says this too is thinkable only as part of a “fiscal 4 union”.Mrs Merkel’s spokesman does not reject the idea categorically, but he points to “formidable” obstacles in Germany's constitution and European treaties.

　　那么，默克尔女士是否会考虑德国“智库”经济顾问委员会提出的欧洲债券版本？根据这项计划，超过国内生产总值60%的债务部分将会转入一项基金名下，由负债国在20-25年内还清，所有欧元区成员国将对该基金负责。财政部长朔伊布勒（Wolfgang Schauble）说，这也得先作为“财政联盟”的一部分，才能予以考虑。默克尔女士的发言人就此未作出断然否认，但他指出德国宪法和欧盟各项条约才是“难以应付”的阻碍。
　　There is no support for relaxing fiscal targets for Greece or Spain. But Germany’s main opposition 5 parties want growth-boosting measures alongside the fiscal compact.Since the treaty requires a two-thirds majority in both houses of parliament,the government has to negotiate on this. But Mrs Merkel can accept much of what they want, including a capital increase for the European Investment Bank andmore effective use of European structural 6 funds.
　　放 宽希腊或西班牙的财政目标的提议不得人心。德国的主要反对党则希望在通过财政契约时，一并通过经济增长刺激政策。由于条约规定，议案需赢得议会两院三分之二的支持，政府不得不就此事与反对派斡旋。但是默克尔女士能接受反对党提出的大部分要求，包括为欧洲投资银行增资，以及更有效的利用欧盟结构基金。
　　There are two sticking points. The opposition wants a financial-transactions tax, which the government thinks is unworkable unless all EU countries sign up to it (and Britain,for one, will not). But there are other ways to tax the financial sector 7 that might provide the basis for compromise. The opposition also favours the wisemen’s “redemption fund” proposal. But Mr Barthle, who is involved in the negotiations 8, insists there will be no such fund.
　　目前尚存的两个症结点是： 反对党希望征收金融交易税，政府则认为此事行不通，除非所有欧盟成员国签署赞同（例如，英国就不会同意）。而在财政领域征收税费的方式并非仅此一种，双方仍有谈判的基础。反对党还赞同智库有关“赎债基金”的提议。但是参与协商的巴斯勒(Barthle)坚称，“赎债基金”之说纯属空穴来风。
　　The German government does not accept that austerity is pushing the eurotowards break-up. Yes, deficit 9 cuts and structural reforms inflict 10 short-termpain. But the rewards will come, as Germany’s own experience shows. TheBaltic countries enacted 11 austerity and are growing fast (see Charlemagne).Voters’ revolts in southern Europe show the folly 12 of changing course, not the risk of sticking to it. Mr Hollande told French voters he would reduce the retirement 13 age, notes Mr Barthle. “Germansare not prepared to work until they are 67 to allow others to retire at 60.” Asfor pressure from America, Barack Obama is clearly impatient for relief before November’s election. But he does not care whether recovery can be sustained, Germans say.
　　德国政府并不接受紧缩措施正将欧元推向瓦解边缘这一说法。诚然，削减赤字和结构性改革会造成短期剧痛，而从德国自身的经验来看，剧痛过后必有回报。波罗的海沿岸诸国在实行紧缩政策后，如今经济增长迅猛（见查理曼专栏）。南欧选民的反抗体现的是改变方针的愚蠢，而非恪守方针的风险。巴斯勒先生指出，奥朗德先生 向法国选民承诺，他会调低退休年龄，“德国人不准备自己工作到67岁，却容许别人60岁退休。”至于美国方面的压力，很显然奥巴马总统（Barack Obama）急欲在11月的大选前解决此事。但他才不在乎欧洲的复苏是否能持续，德方表示。
　　Germany is in denial. The crisis has not yet hit the German economy (though it may be about to), notes Sebastian Dullien of the European Council on Foreign Relations. He doubts if the government “is aware of how bad the situation really is.” Mrs Merkel wants to save the euro but believes peripheral 14 countries can make still more sacrifices. That misperception is dangerous, says Mr Dullien. How dangerous may become clearer after Greece votes. The German line is that Greece must decide whether to default and perhaps exit from the euro. Europe is better prepared now than it was two years ago, says Mr Barthle. There is no legal provision for a country to leave the euro but an exit from the EU might be arranged, he adds. In short, Greece must learn to swim fast.
　　德国拒绝接受现实。欧洲对外关系理事会成员杜林（Sebastian Dullien）指出，危机虽正步步逼近，但尚未波及德国经济。他怀疑德国政府是否“意识到实际情况究竟有多糟糕。”默克尔女士虽有拯救欧元之心，却坚信外围国家还能做出更多牺牲。杜林先生说，这种误解十分危险。至于有多危险，希腊大选后才能明了。德国的原则是，希腊必须决定是否要违约，或许考虑退出欧元区。巴斯勒先生说，如今的欧洲比两年前要准备的更充分。他还补充到，目前还没有有关成员国退出欧元区的法律规定，但是或有退出欧盟的安排。简而言之，希腊必须快速学会游泳。