经济学人58:银行的不良资产 Banks’ dodgy assets

 　　Banks' dodgy assets; Taking out the trash;The lingering toxicity 2 of banks' balance-sheets;

　　银行的不良资产；清理垃圾；银行资产负债表的毒性挥散不去；
　　Waste disposal is still a big part of post-crisis banking 3. A large amount of toxic 1 securities and loans remains 4 on banks' balance-sheets. After its bail-out Citigroup, for example, split itself into a “good bank” and a “bad bank” for operational purposes. The nasty bit still represents a fifth of the firm's assets and accounts for a third of its capital requirements. Two other rescued firms, Royal Bank of Scotland and Commerzbank, took a similar approach. Add in HSBC, too, which was not bailed 5 out but which is running down a ringfenced portfolio 6 of consumer and housing loans in America, and the total “bad-bank” assets in these four firms alone amount to nearly 1 trillion dollar.
　　出售坏账资产仍是危机后银行业的一大重点。大部分危险债券和贷款仍滞留在银行的资产负债表上。例如，花旗集团在接受救助后，将自身资产分割为“优质银行”和“坏帐银行”以采取相应的方式去运作。五分之一的公司资产仍是高风险的，占资本要求的三分之一。其他两个受救助的银行，苏格兰皇家银行和德国商业银行，也采取了类似的做法。汇丰银行虽没受救助，但也仿效了此法，其在美国能用于消费和房贷投资组合的专款已经消耗殆尽。光是这四个公司的“坏帐银行”资产相加额都高达将近1万亿美元。
　　The number of bad banks is actually going up. Bank of America announced this month that it would set up a new unit to manage the firm's soured mortgages. Many other firms have fiddlier arrangements. KBC, a bailed-out Belgian firm, still has some 25 billion euro (36 billion dollar) of notional exposure to collateralised-debt obligations, although it says these are largely written off or covered by a specific state guarantee. Barclays has an off-balance-sheet vehicle called Protium into which it dumped some 12.3 billion dollar of risky 7 assets.
　　坏帐银行的数额着实在上升。美国银行于此月宣布，它将会设立一个新部门以管理公司的不良抵押贷款。许多其他公司则会出台更复杂的举措。比利时联合银行（一个受救助的比利时公司）在担保债务凭证方面仍存有约250亿欧元（360亿美元）的名义风险，尽管它声称大部分风险都已被特定的国家担保注销或者弥补。巴克莱银行有个资产负债表外的工具叫做Protium，利用此工具可摆脱约123亿美元的风险资产。
　　Bad banks are partly about slick presentation. Shareholders 8 and creditors 9 still own a single firm but feel more confident if they can see a consistently profitable division within it. Segregating 10 assets can also concentrate managers' minds on the task of getting rid of the rubbish. Taking Citigroup, RBS, Commerzbank and HSBC together, bad-bank assets have fallen from 1.6 trillion dollar in early 2009 to almost 1 trillion dollar. Quarterly pre-tax losses on these holdings have dropped sharply (see chart).
　　设立存放坏账的金融机构，多是有劳无功之举。对于股东和借款者来说，公司还是原本的那个公司，但如果他们能看到公司内始终如一都有利可图，他们会更信心十足。分割资产也能将经纪人的心思集中在摆脱垃圾的任务上。花旗集团、英国皇家银行、德国商业银行和汇丰银行联合行动，坏账银行资产从2009年初的1.6万亿美元减少到如今的约1万亿。上述几家银行的季度税前坏账损失均得到大幅削减（如图所示）。
　　The job is not done yet. Two years ago the hits came mainly from securities that had to be marked to market. Now those same instruments are producing modest profits for some firms, such as Commerzbank. The bulk of losses today are from commercial-property and consumer loans. Most firms expect continued heavy write-downs this year but an improvement thereafter: RBS, for example, reckons its bad bank has now recognised some 50-75% of the impairments the assets are expected to generate. But it is possible that losses could start rising again.
　　任仍重而道仍远。两年前，主要的冲击来自必须调整为市场价的证券。但如今，正是这些工具为这些公司带来了微薄的利润，德国商业银行便是个好例子。如今的大多数亏损来自商业房产和消费贷款。许多公司预测今年仍将有大幅度的资产减值，但以后就会有所改善：比如，苏格兰皇家银行指出其坏账银行如今已确认该行资产将会贬值50-75%。但可能这个亏损仍会再度增加。
　　The bigger concern is the time it takes to clean things up. Based on its experience last year, Citi's bad bank shrinks by only about 10% a year of its own accord as assets mature. RBS has suggested a similar rate of natural decline. So far most firms have achieved far faster rates of reduction by restructuring and selling bad assets, but some worry that the easy gains have now been made. HSBC has indicated that the sluggish 11 American housing market will mean its portfolio may shrink more slowly that it once hoped, for instance.
　　更大的担忧是清算所需的时长。按照去年的经验，随着其资产到期，花旗集团的坏账银行在一年内自然缩减了约10%，苏格兰皇家银行也提出了一个差不多的自然缩减率。到目前为止，大多数公司通过重整和变卖不良资产而达到的坏账缩减率要高得多，但有些公司担心这些成果来得太容易。比如，汇丰银行指出，美国疲软的房市意味着该公司的投资组合比曾经预期的缩减得更慢。
　　Looming 12 over all of this are the new capital rules. The unspoken goal of almost all firms is quickly to offload the remaining dodgy assets on their balance-sheets, thus releasing capital, to offset 13 the higher overall capital standards being imposed on them. But the rate of natural shrinkage of their bad banks is low and the remaining dud assets are hard to sell at reasonable prices They're called toxic for a reason.
　　笼罩在这一切之上的是新的资本规则。虽并未明示，但几乎所有公司的目标都是迅速清除资产负债表上的残留的不良资产，从而释放资金，以抵消加诸于他们的更高的总资本标准所带来的影响。但这些公司的坏账银行自然缩减率很低，且残留的无用资产很难以合理价格出售。这些资产被戏称是有毒的，并非空穴来风。