经济学人52:苹果股价合理吗?

 　　Finance and Economics；Apple's share price; iRational?

　　财经；苹果的股价; 苹果股价合理吗？
　　Apple is an iconic brand. Now it is a totemic investment, too.
　　苹果本是一种电子产品的品牌，现在却成了投资的风向标。
　　The new iPad, which was released on March 16th, is the most popular version of the tablet yet. Apple sold 3m of them in just four days. But some buyers took to discussion forums 1 to report that it has a tendency to heat up. A similar debate exists about Apple's stock.
　　3月16日发布的新一代苹果是迄今为止最受欢迎的平板电脑。在仅仅4天内，苹果就销售了300万台。一些消费者在论坛区说，苹果的销售变得越来越火。人们同样认为苹果的股价会蒸蒸日上。
　　The company's share price has risen by 83% in the past year, and by almost 50% so far in 2012. Apple is now easily the largest company in the world by market capitalisation, at some 565 billion dollar. It looms 2 over Exxon Mobil, which is worth a mere 3 408 billion dollar. Since the start of this year it has added 187 billion dollar to its valuation, roughly equivalent to the entire market caps of companies like Procter Gamble, Johnson Johnson and Wells Fargo. Apple is larger than the American retail 4 sector 5 combined.
　　在2011年，苹果的股价上涨了83%；今年，到目前为止上涨了约50%。苹果市值约为5650亿，轻松成为世界上最大的公司。其市值超过了埃克森美孚公司的市值：仅有4080亿。今年以来，苹果市值增加了1870亿，大致和宝洁、强生、富国银行的总市值相等。苹果市值比全美零售业市值还要高。
　　It accounts for 4.5% of the SP 500 and 1.1% of the global equity 6 market (see chart 1). Some bank analysts 7 have started to report America's corporate 8 earnings 9 without Apple, because including the firm so skews results. Fourth-quarter earnings are expected to have risen by 6.7% from the prior year for companies in the SP 500, but by a much more modest 3.6% if Apple is excluded, according to UBS.
　　如图1所示，苹果市值占史坦普500股价指数的4.5%，占整个股本市场的1.1%。一些银行分析家们在报道美国公司收益时已经剔除苹果公司了，因为如果包含该公司的话会扭曲报告结果。根据史坦普500股价指数，公司收益在第四季度预计同比上涨6.7%。然而瑞士银行指出，如果把苹果公司剔除的话，这一涨幅会仅有3.6%多点。
　　Around a third of all hedge funds own it, including big names like SAC Capital and Greenlight. Some have made very big bets. Citadel's 5.1 billion dollar stake in Apple (as of December 31st) accounted for around 12% of its equity portfolio 10. Many hedge funds that have done well in the past year owe much to this single position.
　　大约三分之一的对冲基金持有苹果的股票，其中包括著名的SAC股权基金与绿光基金。一些基金甚至孤注一掷。截至去年月31日，城堡投资集团持有苹果51亿美元的股票，大约股票投资组合12%。许多去年收益好的对冲基金在很大程度上受益于大量持有苹果股份。
　　The stock's gains this year have not only boosted the spirits of shareholders 11 but also brightened the whole equity market. Apple is responsible for more than 10% of the SP 500's rise this year (see chart 2), and for 39% of the NASDAQ 100's gains. No other stock has ever grown to have such a significant impact on an index so quickly, says Howard Silverblatt of Standard Poor's, a ratings agency.
　　今年股市的上涨不仅激发了股民的信心，也未整个股票市场带来了生机。史坦普500股价指数在本年度的涨幅中，苹果贡献度不少于10%（如图2）；在纳斯达克100指数的涨幅中，苹果贡献度为39%。标准普尔（信用评级机构）的Howard Silverblatt说，还没有其它股票像苹果能对指数产生如此迅速而重大的影响。
　　The share price keeps soaring. On March 20th, a day after Apple announced it would use some of its cash hoard 13 (estimated at 97.6 billion dollar at the end of 2011) on a quarterly dividend 14 and a 10 billion dollar share buy-back, its shares closed at a record high of 605.96 dollar. This is the first time in 17 years that Apple will pay a dividend. Dividend funds, which had not considered investing in Apple before, could pile in, potentially pushing the price higher still.
　　苹果的股价涨势依然逼人。在3月19日，苹果宣布在2011年低前预计将拿出976亿用于季度分红，同时将回购100亿美元的股本。次日，其股价创历史新高（605.96美元）。这是17年来苹果的首次分红。之前从未考虑过投资苹果公司的股利基金，或将蜂拥而至并继续推高苹果股价。
　　Most analysts remain committed fans of the shares. Some claim that a 1 trillion dollar valuation could soon be possible. The bullish case runs as follows. Apple has low penetration 15 in the personal-computer and smartphone markets, and can hook millions more customers in emerging markets like China and Brazil. Although questions remain over how much of Apple's innovation was due to its magician-in-chief, Steve Jobs, who died last October, the launch of the new iPad has calmed nerves somewhat. Apple is poised 16 to enter new arenas 17 like television and mobile payments.
　　大多数分析家们仍然看好苹果股票。一些分析家宣称，苹果市值有可能突破1万亿。其理由如下。尽管苹果在个人电脑和智能手机市场中的市场渗透率较低，但其在如中国和巴西这样的新兴市场中能吸引数百万的顾客群体。尽管有人认为苹果总裁乔布斯的去世意味着苹果的辉煌将一去不复返，然而新一代iPad的销售业绩证明了这种怀疑是毫无意义的。而且，苹果打算进军如电视和掌上支付这样的新领域。
　　The firm still has a ton of cash to invest in new products and ward 12 off emerging threats. Horace Dediu of Asymco, a data-analysis firm, has estimated that even after the dividend payout and any buy-back activity this year, Apple could still end 2012 with over 35 billion dollar more in the bank than it had at the end of the previous year. With an historic price-earnings (p/e) ratio of 22, shares are not as dear as you might expect, and look even more attractive when the p/e is calculated based on forward earnings. Apple's revenues are forecast to grow by at least 51% in fiscal-year 2012 and by 23% in 2013, according to Morgan Stanley.
　　苹果公司拥有大量的资金可投资于新产品和预防潜在的风险。数据分析公司Horace Dediu of Asymco估计到：苹果今年即使施行了分红和回购行为，其2012的银行存款将同比增长至少350亿美元。考虑到苹果的市盈率仅仅为22，那么其股价就并非那么高了。如果通过未来收益来计算市盈率的话，苹果的股价将会更有吸引力。根据摩根斯坦利，苹果公司的在2012和2013会计年度的预计收益至少分别上涨51%和23%。
　　Others reckon that the outlook for its business is not the only thing that has been driving the steep ascent 18 of Apple's shares. The stock has seen such heavy gains in recent weeks that many investors 19 can't afford not to have Apple in their portfolio. Fund managers that are judged against a benchmark where Apple is heavily weighted, like the NASDAQ 100 or the SP 500 technology index, have to scramble 20 to keep a heavy exposure to Apple. “The speed of the move and the size of the company scare people who haven't got it,” says Andy Ash of Monument Securities. “The danger is that you end up with everyone buying it because they have to rather than because they want to.”
　　其他人认为，苹果公司的前景并非是推动其股价快速上涨得唯一因素。苹果的股价在近几周来不断上涨，许多投资者不得不把苹果纳入其投资组合。基金经理的业绩基准如纳斯达克100指数、斯史坦普500股价指数，受苹果影响是很大的，因此他们争先恐后的重仓持有苹果股票。纪念碑证券公司的Andy Ash说：“苹果公司的发展规模和速度使人们争相抢购苹果的股票。然而危险的是虽然人人最终持有苹果股票，但是并非都出自于真心，而是他们不得不买。”
　　Some wonder whether the stock is headed into bubble territory. Apple's p/e is much lower than that of stocks in the dot-com bubble; America Online's was a ridiculous 154 in 1999. But contrarian thinking is thin on the ground. There is very little short interest in Apple. “Call” options, which give the right to buy Apple stock, are much more expensive than “puts”, which give the right to sell the stock, says Mark Sebastian of Option Pit, a consultancy. Of the 54 analysts who track Apple stock, only one has a sell rating, according to Bloomberg. Robert Shiller, a Yale economist 21 and author of “Irrational Exuberance”, reckons that the “emotional attachment” to the Apple story and “wild” enthusiasm about its stock are reminiscent of a bubble. “You could play the bubble, because it might not be over yet, but I wouldn't put money in Apple stock,” he says.
　　一些人怀疑疑虑，苹果的股价是否存在泡沫了。然而相较于互联网泡沫时代股票的市盈率，苹果的市盈率非常的低了；美国互联网公司在1999年市盈率竟然高达154.但是逆向投资者少有人在。几乎没有投资者抛售苹果股票。Option Pit（咨询公司）的Mark Sebastian说，苹果股票的看涨期权远贵于看跌期权。根据Bloomberg，追踪苹果的54位分析家中只有一位建议卖出。耶鲁大学经济学家兼非理性繁荣的作者Robert Shiller说到，投资者们对苹果传奇的情感依附和狂热让人想起泡沫时代。他说：“你可以利用苹果股价泡沫来赚钱，因为其还不会破灭，但是我是不会购买苹果股票的。”
　　Even if bubble talk is over the top, a higher share price is justified 22 only if Apple continues to meet earnings expectations. That usually gets harder. The stocks of market-leading companies historically underperform once they have reached the top slot, since they are less nimble and more vulnerable to attacks by regulators and the press. It is harder to continue impressive earnings growth on a large base. Even a modest earnings miss could have a big effect on the share price, since more of Apple's shareholders today are fickle 23 traders.
　　即使泡沫论夸大其词，但是苹果只有不断达到预期收益才能保证其持续上涨的股价是合理的。然而，这变得越来越难。从过去来看，一旦市场领先的企业一旦位居榜首，其股价就会表现不佳。其原因是他们对监管者和媒体的攻击反应迟钝，更加容易受到影响。总体上来看，持续保持良好的收益增长相当难。由于苹果的许多股东都相当浮躁，即使在合理范围内的收益损失都会对其股价产生较大的影响。
　　If there was a fall, it would ripple 24. Technology investors, which have a higher concentration of Apple in their portfolios 25, are the most vulnerable. Apple makes up more than 18% of PowerShares QQQ, an exchange-traded fund with heavy exposure to technology stocks, for example. More unsettling are funds that have strayed into buying Apple against their mandate 26, including some mutual 27 funds that are supposed to focus on smaller companies. “If Apple has a wobble, you could see it dictate 28 broader market movements,” says Alec Levine of Newedge, a broker 29.
　　如果苹果股价下跌，其将会产生连锁反应。重仓持有苹果股票的科技型投资者最容易受到影响。例如，交易所基金PowerShares QQQ重仓持有科技股，其中苹果比重超过了18%。那些违背委托意愿而购买苹果股票的基金对股价下降更会心神不宁，这其中包括一些本应投资于小型企业的共同基金。新际集团的经纪人Alec Levine说：“如果苹果的股价产生波动的话，它将引起整个市场范围的波动。”
　　Hedge funds could be among the biggest losers. They look clever now for buying a stock that has seen such a rise, but they will look dumb if they lose money when it falls. Some may question whether they should earn such high fees simply for buying into the world's most valuable listed firm. Where's the genius there?
　　对冲基金可能属于损失最惨的投资家之一。它们的购买行为在股价上涨期看似明智，但股价一旦下跌损失惨重，它们就哑口无言了。一些人质疑，是不是仅仅因为他们购买了全球市值最大的公司的股票就可收取高额费用。真正的投资大师在哪里呢？