科学美国人60秒 SSS Commuting Patterns Help Forecast Flu Outbreaks
时间：2019-01-20 作者：英语课 分类：2016年Scientific American(十二)月
Every flu season—that’s now through the spring—epidemiologists track flu infections as they break out across the country. And they forecast how bad it's going to get: at the national level, regionally, state by state. They even forecast for metro 1 areas, like New York City, and L.A. Which sounds pretty fine-grained, until you consider that New York City is made up of five boroughs 3. And that there are actually more than 80 cities… in L.A. County.
So there might be an advantage to forecasting at even smaller scales. "Public health decision-making and interventions 4 are done at small scales, they're done at the municipal and county scale." Jeffrey Shaman, an infectious disease modeler at Columbia University.
He and his team built a model to forecast flu within New York City neighborhoods and boroughs, using data on flu cases from 2008 through 2013. They added in something they called "network connectivity"—commuter 5 data, basically. The commuter data didn't improve the accuracy of hyper-local, neighborhood-level forecasts. But it did improve predictions at the borough 2 level, compared to models without that sort of commuter flow built in. The results are in the journal PLoS Computational Biology. [Wan Yang, Donald R. Olson, Jeffrey Shaman: Forecasting Influenza 6 Outbreaks in Boroughs and Neighborhoods of New York City]
Shaman says fine-tuned forecasts could warn local hospitals before a big outbreak. "Knowing when that's going to be will allow them to plan the resources out. Have the staff available. They need gloves, beds, they need ventilators, they need to have those appropriately available in time so they can meet that patient surge." And—so they can stop the virus' spread in that most local of networks: within the hospital itself.
—Christopher Intagliata
- Can you reach the park by metro?你可以乘地铁到达那个公园吗？
- The metro flood gate system is a disaster prevention equipment.地铁防淹门系统是一种防灾设备。
- He was slated for borough president.他被提名做自治区主席。
- That's what happened to Harry Barritt of London's Bromley borough.住在伦敦的布罗姆利自治市的哈里.巴里特就经历了此事。
- London is made up of 32 boroughs. 伦敦由三十二个行政区组成。
- Brooklyn is one of the five boroughs of New York City. 布鲁克林区是纽约市的五个行政区之一。
- Economic analysis of government interventions deserves detailed discussion. 政府对经济的干预应该给予充分的论述。 来自辞典例句
- The judge's frequent interventions made a mockery of justice. 法官的屡屡干预是对正义的践踏。 来自互联网
- Police cordoned off the road and diverted commuter traffic. 警察封锁了道路并分流交通。
- She accidentally stepped on his foot on a crowded commuter train. 她在拥挤的通勤列车上不小心踩到了他的脚。
