VOA常速英语2016--美国债务危机或影响全球经济

美国债务危机或影响全球经济

With an economy about one fourth the size of the world's GDP (gross domestic product), anythreat to the U.S. economy is a potential threat to other countries that do business with it.Jason Peuquet, a policy analyst 1 at the New America Foundation says it does not take a largeeconomy to see how interconnected the world has become. One smaller country in the EU,Greece, could really almost bring down Europe and threaten the global economy. So if we cansee that in just one smaller country, imagine what would happen in the world's largest singleeconomy, the United States. Some say U.S. debt - now edging close to $15 trillion - is growingtoo fast. That's why economists 3 say the congressional committee tasked with trimming thenation's deficit 4 must act decisively. Unless politicians deal with the problem now, Diane LimRogers, chief economist 2 at the Concorde Coalition 5, says worries about the nation's ability torepay its debts will make the U.S. less attractive to investors 6. The scary part from an economicperspective is we're not going to know we've reached that point where we've borrowed somuch that we're not looking like a safe investment. We're not going to know that until ithappens - very rapidly. It's sort of like you don't known you're near the edge of the cliff untilyou're already off the cliff. Like Greece and Italy, experts say if that happens, interest rates onU.S. securities will spike 7, making it costlier 8 for the country to repay its debts. Lim Rogers saysit's a burden the next generation would be forced to carry. That's why New AmericaFoundation's Peuquet says the supercommittee can not afford to fail. Extending the deadlinewould be much better than failure, because it keeps the conversation going. We've got thefocus of the world, the markets, businesses, the American public. And this is a realopportunity, so we hope the supercommittee recognizes that. Failure to reach a deal byNovember 23 would trigger automatic spending cuts worth more than one trillion dollars. Thosecuts would come primarily from defense 9 and domestic spending programs - without thebenefit of new revenue. So it's a spending side only approach, it leaves us with a veryspending heavy strategy for deficit reduction at a time when we're still struggling to come outof our recession. Such "brute 10 force" spending cuts could hurt social programs for unemployedand lower income Americans and hamper 11 the country's military readiness. Some economistswarn a political deadlock 12 could also lead to another downgrade of U.S. debt, sending marketsinto a tailspin that would further weaken the world's economy.

作为占全球四分之一GDP（国内生产总值）的国家，美国的经济一旦受到威胁，就会对与其有经贸往来的其他国家造成潜在威胁。詹森是新美国基金会的一名政策分析师，他认为，其实不用以美国这样的大国为例，就已经能看出世界各国经济的相互关联有多么密切。比如像欧盟成员国希腊这种比美国经济体量小的国家，就能带垮整个欧洲经济，进而威胁全球经济。所以如果能从希腊身上看到这一点，也就不难料想世界最大经济体美国发生动荡会产生何种后果了。有一些人认为，美国的债务已经快达到1500万亿美元，增长速度太快。这也是经济学家认为美国国会委员会应该当机立断削减财务赤字的原因。而经济学家戴安认为如果政客们现在不解决这个问题，那么投资者就会因为担心美国偿还债务的能力而不考虑美国。从经济学的角度来看，最可怕的是，我们已然负债累累，境况岌岌可危，濒临崩溃，而不自知。直到发生的那一刻，我们才知道，因为一切都是一眨眼的事儿。就有点像是，你不知道你已经身处悬崖边儿，直到掉下去了才反应过来。

美国目前的情况就像希腊和意大利一样，一旦真正崩塌，证券利息会让债务偿还之路更加步履维艰。戴安还说，这一债务还要由下一代去偿还。这也是新美国基金会的詹森认为美国国会委员会只能成功、不能失败的原因。推延截止日期要比失败好很多，因为这样还有的谈。我们已经成为各方的焦点，无论是各国市场、商圈还是美国公众。而这是个真正的良机，所以我们希望国会委员会也能意识到这一点。如果11月23日之前不能达成协议，就会导致开支自动削减10万亿美元。这部分开支削减主要从国防和内需项目上来——因此这部分的国家税收也就随之消失了。所以其实无论怎样做都是开支，我们只能采取沉重的开支策略以削减赤字，虽然经济危机的坎儿我们还没过去。这种开支削减会让我们喘不过气，影响社会运转，伤害到失业或低收入人群的利益，同时也会影响美国的军事备战状态。还有一些经济学家警告说，政治僵局可能会导致另一轮债务债务评级下调，从而让美国进入经济削弱的又一次慌乱中。