经济学人356:俄罗斯与德企 爱人不是敌人

　　Business

商业报道

German firms in Russia

俄罗斯与德企

Lovers, not fighters

爱人，不是敌人

German exporters are pushing back against economic sanctions on Russia

德国的出口商抵制对俄罗斯的经济制裁

DIPLOMATS 1 wonder if Germany will ever back harsh consequences for Russia over its invasion of Crimea.

外交官们在德国是否会对俄罗斯入侵克里米亚时间严重后果回击。

Second-world-war history weighs on German decision-making.

然而，一方面，第二次世界大战的历史影响着德国的决策，

But economics does too.

另一方面，经济方面也是其权衡思量的因素。

Germany gets about a third of its oil and gas from Russia.

德国约三分之一的石油和天然气都来自俄罗斯。

德国企业.jpg

It also sends a lot of its exports of manufactured goods there.

同时，德国也有大量工业产品对俄出口。

Germany alone accounts for almost a third of the EU's total exports to Russia.

在欧盟对俄总出口中德国就占了近三分之一。

And Russia is Germany's 11th-biggest export market, worth 36 billion last year.

就在去年，俄罗斯成为德国的第十一大出口市场，价值36000000000。

The Committee on Eastern European Economic Relations, a lobby group representing big businesses,

作为代表大企业的游说团体，东欧经济关系委员会认为，300000个德国工作岗位取决于与俄罗斯的贸易，

says that 300,000 German jobs depend on trade with Russia, 6,200 companies with German owners are active in Russia, and German companies have invested 20 billion there.

6200家德国公司活跃并已投资20000000000在俄罗斯市场。

No surprise, then, that the committee's boss calls sanctions senseless.

因而，该委员会的主席称制裁毫无意义便丝毫不令人感到惊奇了。

The biggest export industry is cars and motor parts.

德国最大的出口产业是汽车和摩托车零部件产业。

Daimler, BMW and Volkswagen have all been pushing into Russia:

奔驰，宝马和大众都被推进了俄罗斯市场：

though Germany's overall exports to the country fell by 5% last year, the motor industry's sales rose by 22%.

尽管德国的国家出口整体下降了去年的5%，但汽车行业的销售量却增长了22%。

VW is the leader, selling more than 200,000 cars there last year.

其中又以大众为领头羊，去年在俄汽车销售量超过200000。

In public, the car-industry bosses are guarded,

在公共上，汽车产业的老板们被控制，

but it is a fair bet that they have been lobbying their government contacts.

但这是一个公平的打赌，他们一直在游说政府间的接触。

Machines are the second-biggest export sector 2, with almost 8 billion of sales to Russia in 2013.

机械业是的第二大出口行业，2013年对俄出口的销售额可达到约8000000000。

That makes it Germany's biggest machine-export market after China, America and France.

这使得德国成为继中、美、法之后最大的机械出口市场。

Many of the sellers are smallish,

其中有很多小型企业，

family-owned Mittelstand firms, which would be hit hard if sanctions led to a fall in trade.

因此，一旦制裁导致贸易额下跌，将对许多中小家族企业产生沉重的一击。

Ulrich Ackermann of the German Engineering Federation 3 notes that the country's exports of machinery 4 to Russia,

德国工程联合会的阿克曼教授指出，国家对俄罗斯出口机械，

unlike those of fancy cars, go back to Soviet 5 days.

和苏联时代出口昂贵的小汽车不同，

Many Mittelstandcompanies are not big enough to ride out a prolonged conflict.

许多中小家族企业可能无法安然渡过漫长的冲突时期。

Like other industry representatives, Mr Ackermann is careful to avoid implying that industrialists 6 should make foreign policy.

像其他行业的代表一样，阿克曼小心翼翼地避免暗示企业家应该制定外交政策。

But he goes on to say that we don't have any examples of sanctions achieving what politicians wanted.

但他接着说，我们没有任何的制裁实现政治家想要什么。

Since Russia mainly exports energy and imports finished goods, energy-intensive German industrial exporters would be hit twice by any fall in trade.

俄罗斯主要出口能源，进口产成品，因此，德国能源密集型出口产业将在贸易下滑中两次被打击。

Chemicals is the third-biggest export sector to Russia, worth 3.2 billion last year.

化工业是俄罗斯第三大出口产业，去年出口额达到3200000000。

BASF, a chemicals giant, uses Russian gas as both an energy source and a feedstock;

化工巨头BASF，将俄罗斯天然气作为能源和原料，

in turn it sold 1.4 billion of its 74 billion total sales in 2013 to customers based in Russia.

2013年，在俄罗斯客户74000000000总销售额的基础上占1400000000。

To insulate itself from rising power prices, BASF generates a lot of its own electricity at its enormous complex in Ludwigshafen,

为了不受电力价格上涨的影响，BASF在德国西南部的路德维希港，

in south-western Germany. But it does so with gas turbines.

用燃气轮机创造很多属于自己的电力。

Companies with operations on the ground in Russia are especially nervous.

在俄罗斯的地面操作公司尤其紧张。

Metro 7, a hypermarket operator with a daughter, Media Markt, that sells electronics, had sales of 5.3 billion in Russia last year.

俄罗斯大型超市运营商Metro和其旗下产业Media Markt，去年电子产品销售额达5300000000，

It has been preparing to float a stake in its Russian cash-and-carry operation on the London stockmarket,

已经准备将在俄罗斯限购自运的股份在伦敦股市上市，

but its plan will probably now have to be postponed 8, if not cancelled.

但它的计划现在即便不取消，可能也不得不被推迟。

Many German manufacturers, such as Siemens, which builds locomotives for the Russian state railway, have plants in Russia.

许多像西门子一样为俄罗斯国有铁路建造火车头的德国制造商，在俄罗斯都有自己的工厂。

A law being considered in Russia's parliament to allow the expropriation of foreign firms' assets may be a bluff 9,

俄国国会正准备出台的法律中，考虑允许征收外企资产的说法或许是虚张声势，

but it is a scary one for those with big, immovable investments there.

但它对于那些在俄罗斯有不动产投资的大型企业未必不是一个恐吓。

Anton Brner of the Federation of German Wholesale 10, Foreign Trade and Services, another industry group,

另一个德国对外贸易服务批发联盟中的企业集团，Anton Brner表示，

says that whereas a shutdown in trade would be painful for Germany, it would be existentially threatening for Russia, which would feel the impact immediately.

鉴于贸易关闭将是德国的痛苦，同时也会成为俄罗斯的存在性威胁，使俄罗斯迅速感觉到冲击。

German gas-reserve tanks are full with several months' supply.

虽然，几个月的供应下，德国天然气储备罐子被装满了。

Nevertheless, Mr Brner, like the leaders of other business federations 11, calls for an urgent de-escalation rather than sanctions, arguing that Putin is part of the solution.

然而，Brner先生，像其他商业联盟的领导人一样，极力呼吁减轻战争强度而非对俄的制裁，并称普京是解决方案的一部分。

His member companies call him daily with their worries. He tells them Be prepared.

每一天，公司的成员们都向他诉说着他们的担忧。

This is going to get difficult.

他告诉他们，时刻准备着！

But not if he and other German business lobbyists get their way.

这也许会是一条很困难的路。