经济学人:苏格兰独立 火花四溅

 　　Scottish independence

　　苏格兰独立
　　Sparks flying
　　火花四溅
　　Poverty and dependence 1 on the state pull Scots in opposite directions
　　贫困和对英国的依赖将苏格兰拉离了原来的方向
　　BETTING shops in Rosyth are rowdier than usual. The troublemakers 2 are not the familiar sort—drunks jousting 3 over a Rangers 4 match or the 4.30 at Musselburgh—but punters debating Scottish independence. “We've had to chuck people out,” grumbles 5 one bookie. A gnarled customer agrees: “I don't like people talking about it in my cab,” he growls 6, eyes not moving from the racing 7. As the referendum on September 18th draws closer, tensions in this shipbuilding town are growing.
　　在罗赛斯，博彩店相较于平日愈发喧嚣。闹事者们并不是平日那一拨——醉鬼们押宝一场流浪者队的比赛或是Musselburgh赛马——而是赌马者们给苏格兰独立下注。“我们必须把人撵出去，”一位赛马的下注者抱怨道。一个性情暴躁的顾客也颇为同意：“我不喜欢人们在我的车里谈论这件事情，”他吼道，同时目不转睛的盯着比赛。随着9月18日的公投将近，这个造船小镇的紧张感也在不断增加。
　　苏格兰独立.jpg
　　All politics is local, even when an entire country's future is at stake. But in Rosyth, a run-down port in the shadow of the Forth 8 Bridge near Edinburgh, distinctive 9 local factors are pulling people in opposite directions. The importance of the town's biggest industry seems to militate for sticking with Britain. But the generally depressed 10 state of the economy makes independence more appealing (see article). The outcome of this tug-of-war will determine how people vote in Rosyth—and in other parts of Scotland.
　　所有的政治都是地区性的，即使是在一个国家的未来岌岌可危之时。但在罗塞斯，这个靠近爱丁堡附近福斯桥的破旧港口，独特的地方性因素使得人们走上了相反的方向。城镇最大的产业的重要性似乎是阻碍了其与英国的绑定。但是普遍低迷的经济状况使得独立更加迫切（见文章）。这场拉锯战的后果将决定人们如何在罗赛斯——和苏格兰其他地区投票。
　　Residents are reminded of the case for union every time they leave their homes. Above treetops and through gaps between pebble-dashed houses, glimpses of a vast blue rig marked “Air Carrier Alliance” and “Royal Navy” are visible. Beyond, the grey, 65,000-tonne slab 11 of Britain's newest aircraft-carrier,HMS Queen Elizabeth, sits in the estuary 12. In a place where 13% of working-age adults are on out-of-work benefits, the shipyard is by far the largest employer—and it relies on money from Westminster.
　　居民们在每次离家之时总会被提醒联合的事例。从树梢上卵石做的房子之间的间隙，瞥见一个巨大的蓝色船桅上标有“航空运输联盟”和“皇家海军”的字样。英国最新一级排水量达6.5万吨的航母，伊丽莎白女王号航空母舰就坐落在河口。已达成年工龄成人中的13％仰仗着失业福利，造船厂是目前最大的雇主——而且它还依赖于来自英国议会的资金。
　　Those who build and man the ships are therefore firmly unionist. At a ceremony to name the carrier on July 4th, they booed Alex Salmond, Scotland's nationalist first minister and the leader of the pro-independence “yes” campaign. The following week the Rosyth workers' union representatives appeared before MPs in Westminster to warn against secession. Henry Wilson, a convener at BAE Systems, a defence firm, warned that naval 13 shipbuilding in Scotland would be “finished” if Mr Salmond got his way.
　　那些建造并给船只配备人员的人因此是坚定的联合主义者。在7月4日给某运输公司命名的仪式上，苏格兰民族主义第一部长和支持独立“成功”运动的领导遭到了Alex Salmond他们的嘘声哄笑。接下来的一周，罗赛斯的工人工会代表在议员之前出现在英国议会对反分裂提出警告。一位BAE系统公司（一个防卫公司）的召集人Henry Wilson给出警告，如果Salmond如此遂心所欲，那么在苏格兰的海军船舶建造将“玩完”。
　　Before the ship sails
　　起航之前
　　In the ex-servicemen's club on Admiralty Road most agree with Mr Wilson. Only one drinker is willing to admit to backing “yes”. “Ey, I've made up my mind,” says Jimmy, grinning defiantly 14. He struggles to hold his own around here, he adds: “full of “no” voters; gets very heated.” “He won't listen,” sighs Janet, the barmaid, wiping beer glasses. Janet thinks Mr Salmond's promises are baloney: “I don't trust him as far as I could throw him.”
　　在位于海军部大道的退役军人俱乐部中，多数人对Wilson的观点表示赞同。只有一个酒徒愿意支持“成功”。“嗯，我已经决定了，” Jimmy笑嘻嘻的说道。他在这里艰难的保持的自己的观点，他补充道：“全都是‘反对'的选民；气氛变得异常激烈。”“他听不进去，”酒吧的女招待Janet边擦酒杯边叹息。Janet认为Salmond的承诺都是瞎扯。“我一点也不相信他。”
　　Jimmy is in a minority in the ex-servicemen's club, but he may not be in Rosyth at large. Nationalist sentiment is widespread. More “yes” signs are visible in windows than are “no” ones. Scottish saltires the size of bedsheets billow above allotments and from blocks of flats. Beyond the shipyard there is little sign of the British union flag.
　　在这个退伍军人俱乐部中，Jimmy是一位少数民族人民，但他可能在罗赛斯就不是了。民族主义者的情绪是很普遍的。在窗户上，相较于“反对”，更多的“成功”标志随处可见。来自公寓中的床单大小的苏格兰旗覆盖于物品上。在造船厂，几乎看不见大英国旗的身影。
　　In 2010 an NHS study of central Rosyth put male life expectancy 15 at 73.3 years—five years shorter than the British average. Teenage pregnancy 16 and welfare dependency are unusually common, too. Those hard-up locals not employed in the shipyard could be forgiven for thinking that the union is not working for Scotland—and taking a gamble on independence.
　　在2010年，来自中央罗赛斯的英国国民健康保险制度（NHS）研究表明男性的预期寿命是73.3——比英国的平均年龄还短5年。少女怀孕和福利从属也不尽相同。那些没有被船厂雇用的当地穷人可以因其认为苏格兰并不在同盟内而被原谅——并且为独立下赌注。
　　A great many former Labour Party voters fall into this category. The collapse 17 of the party's working-class base in the 2011 Scottish election gave Mr Salmond's Scottish National Party (SNP) the majority it needed to press for a referendum on independence. In Cowdenbeath, the seat containing Rosyth, support for the SNP jumped from 29% to 42%.
　　很多老工党选民都属于这一类。在2011年苏格兰大选中党派的工人阶级基础的垮塌，给了Salmond的苏格兰民族党（SNP）在独立公投中它所需的多数人员。在考登比斯，包含罗赛斯的席位中，SNP的支持率从29％一跃至42％。
　　This makes Rosyth typical of a sort of Scottish town: post-industrial and deprived but sustained by the British state, which spends about 1,500 ($2,500) more per head in Scotland than it does nationally. Others include Govan and Scotstoun, both shipyards, and Pollokshaws, home to National Savings 18 and Investments, a state-owned bank. In Cumbernauld, outside Glasgow, Britain's largest revenue and customs office employs four times as many people as any other outfit 19. Gregg McClymont, Labour MP for Cumbernauld, notes that Scotland has 8% of Britain's people but 13% of its tax jobs. How could it sustain them if it became independent?
　　这使得罗赛斯成为苏格兰城镇当中的一朵奇葩：后工业化和相对贫困但是被英国供养，这在苏格兰人均要比全国还要多出1,500欧元 (约合2,500美元)。其他的像戈万和斯科特斯顿，二者的造船厂和波洛克索斯，国内储蓄和投资，一个国有银行。在格拉斯哥之外的坎伯诺尔德，英国最大的税收和海关雇佣相较于其他任何组织四倍的人手。坎伯诺尔德的工党议员Gregg McClymont指出，苏格兰拥有英国人口的8％但在税收工作中的人数占了13％。苏格兰一旦独立如何维持这些的运转？
　　In such places, the “yes” campaign faces a particularly acute version of a problem that confronts it across Scotland. The disadvantages of independence are concrete and would be quickly felt—in the case of Rosyth, shipbuilding jobs would sail to Portsmouth, on England's south coast. Any advantages, such as the broad industrial revival 20 promised by Mr Salmond, would take years to materialise, if they ever do. Folk in Rosyth enjoy the odd flutter. But on September 18th the stakes will be much higher than usual.
　　在这些地区，“成功”的运动面临着一个全苏格兰都存在的非常紧急的问题。独立的弊端是很客观的而且很快将会感觉到——就罗赛斯来说，造船厂的工作将移至英国的南部海岸朴茨茅斯。任何优势，比如Salmond承诺的广泛的工业复兴，如果他们可能行动，将花费数年才能实现。罗赛斯人民享受这些奇怪的震颤。但在9月18日，风险将比平日更高。