经济学人478:犯罪的城市 成功的秘密

 　　Criminal cities

　　犯罪的城市
　　The secret of success
　　成功的秘密
　　America's great crime wave is receding 1 from some cities faster than others
　　美国巨大的犯罪浪潮正在从一些城市以比其他城市更快的速度削减
　　BETWEEN getting out of his car and starting work in the morning, Bashir Akinyele, a beret-wearing history teacher in Newark, New Jersey 2, passes the sites of two murders. His school, Weequahic High, once taught Philip Roth, a giant among America's novelists. Its entrance is now blocked by a metal detector 3; armed cops share the corridors with teenage girls. In the streets nearby almost every intersection 4 has been the site of a shooting. “I've been a teacher for 20 years,” says Mr Akinyele. “And in that time, I've lost 38 students.”
　　Bashir Akinyele， 一个戴着贝雷帽的新西泽州纽瓦克市的历史老师，早上在离开他的车去工作的过程中，经过两个谋杀案的现场。美国小说巨匠Philip Roth毕业于他教书的学校——Weequahic 高中。这个高中的入口现在被金属探测器堵住了，武装好的警察和青少年女孩都在走廊上。在附近的街道上几乎每一个十字路口都发生过枪击案。“我做老师已经20年了”， Akinyele先生说，“在这期间，我失去了38名学生。”
　　Weequahic is only 30 minutes' drive from Manhattan, but a world apart. In 1991 Newark and New York City had roughly the same murder rate: 32 and 29 per 100,000 respectively. But by last year New York's rate had fallen to four and Newark's had jumped to 40, according to the latest data published on November 14th by the FBI. On a night out in Brooklyn, the main threat is getting caught in a boring conversation with a hipster. In Newark, when darkness fell, your correspondent was ushered 5 back downtown by police.
　　Weequahic 距离曼哈顿只有三十分钟的车程，但是却是两个世界。在1991年纽瓦克市和纽约有差不多的谋杀率，分别是3.2%和2.9%。但是根据美国联邦调查局11月14号颁布的最新数据，去年纽约的谋杀率已经降到了0.4%但是纽瓦克市的谋杀率却上升到了4%。在布鲁克林晚上外出的最大威胁是跟一个潮人进行无聊的对话。在纽瓦克市，当夜幕降临后你的联络人会被警察带回市区。
　　犯罪的城市.jpg
　　Over the past 20 years, crime has fallen spectacularly in America and across the rich world. The FBI data suggest it is still falling: violent crime decreased by 4.4% between 2012 and 2013, and murder is now less common than at any time since the end of the 1950s. Criminologists have countless 6 plausible 7 theories to explain this, ranging from less lead-poisoning to the rise of car immobilisers. Yet the difference between cities such as Newark, which remain dangerous, and those like New York, which are safe, suggests a somewhat subtler explanation.
　　在过去的20年，美国和富有地区的犯罪率明显降低。美国联邦调查局的数据显示犯罪率还在降低：暴力犯罪率在2012到2013年间下降了4.4%，现在的谋杀率19世纪50年代末以来历史最低。犯罪学家有无数的貌似可行的理论来解释这个现象，从更少的铅中毒到更多的汽车防盗器。现在纽瓦克市这类仍然很危险的城市和纽约这种安全的城市之间的差别在一定程度上表明了微妙的解释。
　　In Washington, DC the murder rate has dropped from a terrifying 81 per 100,000 in 1991 to a fifth of that now. In Los Angeles gang warfare 8 has largely given way to organic coffee bars, and burglaries and robberies have become rare. Yet cities like Philadelphia and Chicago have experienced more modest improvements. And in places like Baltimore, Newark and Detroit some crime rates have barely fallen.
　　华盛顿1991年的犯罪率是惊人的8.1%，现在下降到当初的五分之一。在洛杉矶，有组织的咖啡吧很大程度上取代了帮派群架，偷盗行为也变得更稀少了。现在费城和芝加哥这类城市已经经历了一个较为温和的改善。但是巴尔的摩、纽瓦克市和底特律这样的城市犯罪率几乎没有下降。
　　One possible explanation is the varying quality of local government. In New York and Los Angeles, reformers such as Rudy Giuliani, who was New York's mayor in the 1990s, and Bill Bratton—chief of police in both cities at different times—forced cops out of their cars, adopted data-driven policing and tried to make public spaces feel safe. They reckoned that residents had to trust the police for crime to fall—which meant purging 9 corruption—and that criminals had to be deprived of convenient places to hang out.
　　一个可行的解释是地方政府的质量不同。在纽约和洛杉矶，Rudy Giuliani（1990年担任纽约的市长）和Bill Bratton（在不同的时间担任过两个的城市的警长）这类的改革者命令警察到他们警车以外的地方，采取数据驱动政策并且努力使公共区域感到安全。他们希望居民相信警察能够使犯罪率降低，这意味着清除腐败，以及犯罪者会从方便大家闲逛的地方被清除。
　　In Newark, by contrast, Sharpe James, the mayor until 2006, was imprisoned 10 in 2008 on fraud charges. His successor, Cory Booker, now a Democratic senator, did much to attract investment into downtown Newark, and managed for a short time to reduce crime and overhaul 11 the police department; but the money ran out, and he later had to cut the force sharply. The present mayor, Ras Baraka, a more traditional rabble-rouser, has hired new cops, but the police force remains 12 troubled (it is, uniquely, monitored by the federal Justice Department). When The Economist 13 visited, the new police director and police chief led officers on a “community walk” around a sketchy 14 neighbourhood. They seemed to spend much of their time telling people how excellent the new mayor is.
　　相反，在纽瓦克市，2006年以前的市长Sharpe James，在2008年被指控欺诈而锒铛入狱。他的继任人Cory Booker，现在是民主党派参议院，做了很多事情吸引对纽瓦克市中心的投资，并曾经有段时间成功地减少了犯罪、翻修了警局。但是钱被用光了，后来他不得不大量减少这些措施的力度。现在的市长Ras Baraka是一个更加传统的暴力煽动者，他雇佣了新的警察，但是警局的武力仍然有问题（的确，是唯一一个被联邦司法部监管过的警局）。当《经济学人》采访的时候，这个新的警局领导者和警长领着这些人在周围大致地进行了一次“社区散步”。他们似乎花了很多时间告诉人们这个新市长是多么地好。
　　Some think that too much prison breeds nastier criminals: when released, they may be more dangerous than when they went in. In Philadelphia most homicides stem from stupid arguments, often between ex-convicts, says Lieutenant 15 John Stanford of the local police. Newark has 278,000 people yet, each month, 1,400 prisoners are released from the local jail.
　　一些人认为太多的人被关进监狱滋生了严重的犯罪率：被释放后，他们也许会比进监狱前更加危险。在费城，大多数杀人事件起源于愚蠢的争吵，通常是发生在有前科的人之间，地方警察中尉John Stanford说。纽瓦克市至今有278,000人，每个月有1,400名犯人从地方监狱被释放。
　　However, incarceration 16 rates are high throughout America, so this cannot explain the specific ills of its most crime-ridden cities. Nor can poverty: unemployment in New York City is not much lower than it was in the 1990s. Rather, according to John Roman, a researcher at the Urban Institute, a think-tank, crime is like a contagious 17 disease. People who are vulnerable to criminality—poor, badly-educated young men—are far more likely to become criminals when they are surrounded by men much like themselves.
　　然而，在整个美国入狱率都很高，所以这个说法不能够解释大多数被犯罪率困扰的城市的具体问题。贫穷也不能够解释这个问题：纽约的失业率自19世纪90年代以来就没有降低。相反，据城市学院的调查者、智囊团John Roman所说，犯罪就像是传染病。人们在犯罪面前是很脆弱的——当贫穷的、没有受过教育的年轻人聚成团的时候，他们是很容易犯罪的。
　　Although cities like New York and Los Angeles have plenty of poor people, they are—by American standards—not unusually segregated 18 by race or income. The presence of ambitious new immigrants in deprived neighbourhoods provides an inoculation 19 against crime. In Weequahic, by contrast, deindustrialisation led to depopulation. Whites and many middle-class blacks have fled. Those who remain are mostly poor and desperate. Low property prices provide little incentive 20 for people to clean up blight 21.
　　即使像纽约和洛杉矶这样的城市也有大量的穷人，他们经常被美国的标准——种族或者收入隔离。附近雄心勃勃的新移民的出现有效的遏制了犯罪的发生。相反，在Weequahic，遏制工业化导致人口减少。白人和中产阶级的黑人逃离了，留下来的大都是穷人和绝望的人们。低楼价不能激励人们打扫这个脏乱的地方。
　　Even in the most dangerous cities, however, there is hope. Urban populations are now growing across most of the country. In Philadelphia crime rates, though still high, dropped sharply last year. At a police town-hall meeting in the west of the city, people complain about noisy bars, troublesome children and illegal parking. A new charter school and a growing student population are changing the neighbourhood. Shootings are still frighteningly common, admits the local police captain, but milder worries are creeping in.
　　然而，即使在最危险的城市，希望仍然存在。现在大多数城市市区的人口正在增加。尽管费城的犯罪率还是很高，但是相比去年已经降低了不少。在西部城市的警方市政会议上，人们抱怨吵闹的酒吧、烦人的孩子和非法停车。一个新的宪章学校和不断增加的学生数量正在改变这个地方。地方警局承认，枪击案仍然惊人地常见，但是人们的担心越来越少。