经济学人445:苹果的未来 不得不进行的改革

 　　Apple's future

　　苹果的未来
　　Reluctant reformation
　　不得不进行的改革
　　Apple is becoming a very different company, and not just because of its newly unveiled products
　　苹果公司正在进行转型，不仅是因为它刚刚发布的神秘新产品
　　APPLE prides itself on constantly re-imagining the future, but even the world's leading gadget-maker likes to dwell on the past too. Thirty years ago Steve Jobs commanded the stage at the Flint Centre for the Performing Arts near Apple's headquarters in Cupertino to show off the new Macintosh computer. On September 9th Mr Jobs's successor, Tim Cook, held a similar performance in the same location to thunderous applause. Those invited were given a chance to play with the gadgets 1 presented on stage: two new iPhones and a wearable device, called the Apple Watch. “This is the next chapter in Apple's story,” he said, sounding much like the young Mr Jobs in 1984.
　　苹果公司以能够不断勾画未来蓝图而自豪，但即使作为世界上最顶尖的小型设备制造商，苹果也难免沉溺于过去。三十年前，史蒂芬·乔布斯在弗林特演艺中心（位于库比蒂诺的苹果公司总部附近）展示Macintosh电脑；今年9月，乔布斯的继任者，蒂姆·库克，在同一个舞台面对千万热情观众举行了一个类似的产品展示活动。被邀请到的人有机会试用展台上的设备：两台新款iPhone和一款叫做Apple Watch可佩戴手表。像当年的乔布斯一样，库克说：“这是苹果的下一篇章！”
　　It may well be true—but not for the reasons most people might think. Consumers, analysts 2 and investors 3 have been howling for proof that Apple can still do the magic tricks of the Jobs era; iPad sales have weakened in recent quarters and the iPhone, launched a tech aeon 4 ago in 2007, still generates more than half of the firm's revenues. Yet lost in the maelstrom 5 of snazzy new gadgets, applause and photos was an important shift: this week's announcements showed that Apple's future will be less about hardware and more about its “ecosystem 6”—a combination of software, services, data and a plethora 7 of partners.
　　这可能是真的——但原因并非大多数人想的那样。消费者、市场分析员、投资者一直都在极力试图证明苹果可以再创乔布斯时代的传奇；然而，iPad近几季的销量已有所下降，于2007年发布的iPhone掀起了一段科技狂潮，它至今仍然占据苹果公司收入的半壁江山。然而，在充斥着时髦的新产品、掌声、美图的狂潮中，被人忽略的是苹果的重大转型：本周发布会表示苹果未来的重心将从硬件转移到“生态系统”——一个集软件、服务、数据、众多合作伙伴于一体的有机系统。
　　If Apple were simply a hardware-maker, there would be reason to worry. It is losing market share to rivals such as Samsung of South Korea and Xiaomi of China, which make cheaper devices, and to Google's Android operating system, which runs on 71% of the world's smartphones. Apple's average selling price is $609, compared with $249 for smartphones worldwide, according to IDC, a market-research firm. That is good for profits, but it makes Apple increasingly a niche 8 player, somewhat like a luxury-goods firm, says Colin Gillis of BGC, a stockbroker 9.
　　如果苹果只是一家简单的硬件制造商，那么情况是让人担忧的。苹果的市场份额正在缩小，相反的韩国的三星和中国的小米因为价格低廉而占据着越来越多的市场份额，并且谷歌的安卓操作系统占领了全球70%的只能手机。据市场调研公司IDC的数据，苹果手机的平均售价为609美元，而全球智能手机均价为249美元。一名来自BGC的股票经纪人科林.吉利斯认为：这样利润固然客观，但是这使得苹果市场越来越成为一种缝隙市场，有点类似于奢侈品企业。
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　　As with Apple's existing products, much effort went into the watch's design. Its backplate contains sensors 10 that measure the user's vital signs; and people can send their heartbeat to other watch-wearers—as a new sort of expressive 11 message. But starting at $349, and only usable in conjunction with an iPhone, it looks unlikely to be a serious competitor to other expensive watches (see article).
　　与现有的产品一样，苹果为设计这款手表做出了很大努力。它的后板装有感应器，可以测量出佩带者的生命特征；作为一种新的信息表达方式，人们可以将心率数据发送给其他的手表用户。但是它的售价为349美元起，而且只能与iphone联合使用，这使得它难以敌对其他名贵手表。
　　Still, many are likely to stick with their iPhones and even plunk down the money for an Apple Watch, because of the firm's ecosystem. Apple is considered a laggard 12 in online offerings, especially since it bungled 13 the launch of its map service. Its services and apps can be maddening. But iTunes, Apple's media store, now boasts more than 800m active users, three times as many as Amazon's. Apple's software and services category, which includes iTunes, its Apps Store, revenue from warranties 14 and other businesses, brought in sales of more than $16 billion in 2013 and is growing steadily 15.
　　但是许多人仍然愿意坚守苹果阵营，继续使用iPhone,甚至是为了苹果的“生态系统”而大手笔地花钱购买Apple Watch。在线服务方面，苹果被认为是落后者，尤其是它粗制滥造的地图服务。它的服务和应用有时候让人抓狂。但是，苹果的媒体商店iTunes，它的活跃用户现在已经飙升超过了8亿，是亚马逊的三倍之多。苹果的软件和服务，包括iTunes、应用Store，来自授权和其他业务的收入等，2013年超过160亿美元，并依然在稳定增长。
　　Apple's watch is supposed to help the firm expand into new areas. One example is a mobile wallet. It aims to replace swiping credit cards with the tap of an Apple watch (or an iPhone) on a device connected to a retailer's cash register. Apple's new health and fitness applications help people monitor their workouts. The firm's new operating systems, due out soon, will allow its devices to work together seamlessly: an e-mail started on an iPhone can be finished on an iMac.
　　苹果试图通过智能手表拓展到新领域，移动钱包就是一个例子，它的目标是用苹果手表（或手机）轻触与收款机相连的设备来取代划信用卡。苹果新的健身应用可以帮助人们监视自己的运动过程。另外，新的操作系统即将推出，它将实现设备的无缝操作：如在iPhone上开始写的电子邮件可以在iMac电脑上继续写完。
　　For Ben Wood of CCS Insight, another market-research firm, Apple's plan is to be even more like the Hotel California (as in the Eagles' song), “where you can check out any time you like, but you can never leave”. The more Apple-gadget owners store their data in them, from photos to health information, the more they are locked in, and must stick with Apple.
　　另一家市场调研公司CCS Insight 的本.伍德认为，苹果的计划更像是“加州旅馆”（老鹰乐队的歌）：“你可以随时退房，但却永远不会离开。”苹果用户在系统中储存的数据越多，从照片到健康信息，他们就越依赖苹果。
　　At the same time, Apple is trying to become more open to partners—a big change for the firm. “There has always been a huge tension between keeping control and opening up” at Apple, explains Michael Cusumano of MIT's Sloan School of Management. Mr Jobs saw Apple products as complete works of art and never wanted them unbundled. Only after the executive team rebelled, for instance, did he relent and in 2003 let iTunes become available on Windows—a move that dramatically increased sales of the iPod.
　　与此同时，苹果正尝试向合作伙伴们更开放——这对苹果是个好机会。麻省理工斯隆管理学院的迈克尔.库森曼诺解释说，就开放程度问题，苹果内部一直存在很大分歧。在乔布斯看来，苹果的产品是一个完整的艺术作品，绝不希望它被拆分。直到管理团队出现反叛之后，他才在2003年做了退步，让iTune可以通过Windows访问——这一举措大大地提升了iPod的销量。
　　Three years after Mr Jobs's death, Apple seems to be ready to go further, hoping to entice 17 other firms to contribute to its ecosystem and make it more attractive. Earlier this year Apple announced a partnership 18 with IBM, as well as changes that make it easier for outside developers to design apps for the iPhone. And Apple's watch will have third-party apps from the start. The iPhone launched without the app store; it opened only a year later, after many outside developers had hacked 19 the device, allowing them to write apps for it.
　　乔布斯去世了三年，苹果似乎要采取进一步行动，希望通过与其他公司合作来构建苹果的“生态系统”，使其更具吸引力。今年早些时候，苹果就宣布与IBM合作，同时作了些改变以方便外部开发者为iPhone设计应用。并且苹果手表一开始就会有第三方应用。iPhone刚发行的时候并没有应用商店，直到一年后许多外界开发商黑进了手机，苹果才勉强允许他们开放应用。
　　The new openness does not only apply to technology. Mr Cook has let outsiders join his inner circle, hiring executives from retail 16 and other industries to expand Apple's expertise 20. He has also overseen 21 the largest acquisition in Apple's history, the $3 billion purchase in May of Beats, a headphones and music-streaming company. For its new payment system it teamed up with big retailers 22, such as Whole Foods and Walgreens, and credit-card firms, including MasterCard and Visa.
　　这种新的开放制度不仅适用于技术层面，库克已经允许外界人士参与它的内部圈子，并且聘请零售和其他行业的管理者来扩展苹果公司的业务面。库克见证了苹果史上最大的一起并购案：苹果于今年5月斥资30亿美元收购了Beats(一家生产耳机和音乐流媒体公司）。至于其新开发的支付体系，苹果将与各大零售商进行合作，如有机食品连锁店Whole Foods 和沃尔格林，以及信用卡公司，包括万事达卡和Visa卡。
　　This opening-up may need to go further, to keep up with Google's ecosystem. The internet giant's services still beat Apple's. And it not only lets device-makers modify Android, but also gives it away (albeit with conditions, such as the requirement to carry Google's services). “Apple v Android” could still end up a repeat of “Apple v Windows”: in personal computers Apple lost the battle against Microsoft because it refused to license 23 its operating system to other hardware-makers.
　　为了赶上谷歌的生态系统，苹果的对外开放制度需要更进一步。目前苹果的服务仍逊于这家互联网巨头。谷歌不仅允许制造商们改造安卓系统，而且可以完全撒手不管（虽然这是有条件的，比如必须安装谷歌的某些服务）。“苹果VS安卓”的结局可能会和“苹果VS Windows”一样：在个人电脑市场，苹果因为拒绝向其他硬件制造商认证其操作系统，所以不敌微软。
　　Umberto Eco, an Italian novelist, once compared Apple's platform to Catholicism and Microsoft's to Protestantism. The Macintosh, he wrote, “tells the faithful how they must proceed, step by step”. By contrast, Windows “allows free interpretation 24 of scripture 25...and takes for granted the idea that not all can achieve salvation 26.” This still rings true today, but Apple is clearly going through a Reformation.
　　一名意大利小说家恩贝托.艾克曾经将苹果比作天主教，而将微软比作新教。他这样写道：Mac电脑“告诉信徒必须沿着一个方向，一步一步坚定地走下去。”相反的，Windows则“允许对教义进行自由的解释，并且认为不是所有的想法都可以最终解决问题。”这些道理至今仍然受用，但是很显然，苹果已经开始改变并且将进一步改革。