经济学人:脸书的未来:下一个雅虎？(1)

"Big tobacco" is what the bosses of several large technology firms have started calling Facebook in private and in public. 几家大型科技公司的老板们已经开始在私底下和公开场合称脸书是“烟草大公司”。

The company has spent the past year fending 1 off critics who claim it is addictive 2, bad for democracy and overdue 3 for a regulatory reckoning. 这家公司在过去一年的时间里都在躲避那些批评声，他们称脸书让人上瘾，不利于民主，监管部门监管不到位。

Being compared to the tobacco giants is one of the business world's more toxic 4 insults, but it is not the only unflattering analogy circulating. 将一家公司与烟草巨头相比较，这在商业界中是最为恶毒的侮辱，但这并不是针对脸书的唯一个耿直的类比。

A lower blow is the suggestion that Facebook may become like Yahoo, the once high-flying internet firm that plunged 5. 更low的一击是暗示脸书可能成为下一个雅虎，一家曾经非常成功而现在却没落的互联网公。

Even a year ago the idea would have been unthinkable. 即便是在一年前，这种想法还是无法想象的。

The social-networking giant, which runs Instagram, WhatsApp and Facebook Messenger as well as its own core service, was thriving. 当时，这家运营着Instagram、WhatsApp、Facebook Messenger和公司自身核心服务的社交网络巨头还在蓬勃发展。

But since January it has become mired 6 in a series of controversies 7, misjudgments and missteps. 但自一月以来，这家公司陷入了一系列争议、误判和失误的泥潭之中。

It became clear that it had done too little to stop Russian interference in America's election in 2016. 很明显这家公司在阻止俄罗斯干涉2016年美国选举中几乎无所作为。

It had to admit that it had shared the personal data of 90m users with outside firms without permission. It later suffered a data breach 8 affecting 50m users. 它不得不承认，公司在未经用户的许可下和其他外部公司共享了九千万用户的个人数据。之后它又碰上了涉及五千万用户的数据外泄。

The past week has brought more bad news. 过去一周的坏消息更多。

Mark Zuckerberg, Facebook's chief executive, has been forced onto the airwaves to defend his second-in-command, Sheryl Sandberg, 脸书CEO马克·扎克伯格被迫接受电视采访为公司的副主管雪莉·桑德伯格辩护，

after the New York Times on November 14th published a report 此前11月14日《纽约时报》曾发表一篇报道

alleging 9 that they had tried to downplay the extent of Russian electoral interference to the firm's board of directors, 宣称他们曾试图向公司董事会弱化俄罗斯干涉选举的程度，

and hired lobbyists and the kind of "opposition-research" firms commonly used in political campaigns, to deflect 10 blame onto other firms and to tarnish 11 critics. 并聘请说客以及那些政治运动中普遍使用的“反向研究”将责任推给其他公司并抹黑那些评论人士。

The revelations have cemented the idea that Facebook is "grossly mismanaged", says an advertising 12 executive. Its shares have fallen by 27% since the start of the year. 一位广告经理表示，这些披露更让人们认为脸书的“管理极其不善”。自今年年初，公司股价下跌27%。

The comparison to Yahoo is imperfect. Even at its peak Yahoo never boasted a business as large and profitable as Facebook's. 把脸书比作雅虎并不恰当。即便是在巅峰时期，雅虎的规模和利润均无法于脸书相匹敌。

And the competitive landscape was different. One of the main reasons Yahoo declined is because it lost out to a powerful rival, Google, in online search; 两家的竞争格局也不一样。雅虎衰败的主要原因之一是因为它在在线搜索领域输给了强大竞争对手谷歌；

Marissa Mayer, its boss from 2012 until its sale to Verizon last year, was unable to restore advertisers' or employees' confidence as users left. 自2012年到去年威瑞森收购该公司，CEO玛丽莎·梅耶尔都没能挽回广告商或员工们因客户流失而失去的信心。

Today there is no company that truly competes with Facebook's suite 13 of apps, 如今没有一家公司真的可以与脸书的app相竞争，

partly because it has hoovered up competitors such as Instagram, the wildly successful photo app that is at the centre of its future plans. 部分原因是因为脸书收购了它的竞争对手，如Instagram，这个非常成功的拍照app是脸书未来计划的核心。

But people who watched Yahoo's collapse 14 see ominous 15 similarities. 但是目睹了雅虎崩塌的人们看到了不祥的相似性。