特朗普和希拉里第一次辩论说错了什么?

 　　《纽约时报》对美国大选第一场辩论中提及的事实进行了核实，显然《纽约时报》更支持希拉里。

　　Foreign Policy and National Security
　　Mr. Trump 1 said Mrs. Clinton had been “fighting ISIS your entire adult life.” In reality, the Islamic State, also known as ISIS or ISIL, began as an Al Qaeda affiliate 2 that sprang up in Iraq as the Sunni insurgency 3 amid the power vacuum created by the 2003 American invasion that toppled Saddam Hussein’s government in 2003.
　　特朗普说克林顿“整个成年生涯都在和伊斯兰国作战”。事实上，伊斯兰国最初是基地组织的一个分支，2003年美国推翻萨达姆政府后造成了权力真空，其作为逊尼派的叛军在伊拉克兴起。
　　It was largely defeated and pushed into Syria during the Obama administration’s first term, when Clinton was secretary of state. It eventually split from the original Al Qaeda and rebranded itself as ISIS, sweeping 4 back into Iraq in 2014, when she was out of office.
　　在奥巴马第一任期内，克林顿任国务卿时，这一股叛军节节败退，退入叙利亚境内，最终与原来的基地组织分裂，并重新标榜为伊斯兰国，2014年希拉里不再担任国务卿时再次进入伊拉克。
　　—Charles Savage 5
　　Mrs. Clinton blamed Russia for conducting cyberattacks, saying Russia and President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia were playing a “long game” here. She’s right, but the United States has not yet publicly named Russia as the attacker against the Democratic National Committee, much less the State Department, the White House and the Joint 6 Chiefs.
　　克林顿指责俄罗斯从事网络攻击，表示俄罗斯和普京“所图者大”。她说得对，但美国并没有公开称俄罗斯是民主党全国委员会的攻击者，更别提国务院、白宫和参谋联席会议。
　　“The United States has much greater capacity,” she said, seeming to threaten that the United States could respond in kind. She appeared to be referring to Washington’s own offensive cyberability, made clear in the American attacks on Iran’s nuclear program, code-named “Olympic Games,” which played out while she was secretary of state. Again, the United States has never admitted to that cyberoffensive action.
　　她说“美国有的是办法”，威胁说美国应该以牙还牙。她看起来指涉华盛顿自己的网络攻势，表明美国对伊朗核项目进行攻击，代号“奥运会”，她任国务卿期间开展了这一行动。同样，美国也从未承认发起过该网络攻击。
　　Mr. Trump seemed to try to deflect 7 responsibility away from Moscow. “It could be Russia,” he said, “but it could also be China.” United States intelligence officials disagree: This most recent round of attacks, they concluded with “high confidence,” indeed originated from Russia.
　　特朗普试图推卸莫斯科的责任。他说：“攻击可能来自俄罗斯，也可能是中国。”美国情报官员提出异议：他们“高度相信”最近一轮攻击确实来自俄罗斯。
　　—David E. Sanger
　　Mr. Trump said the Islamic State would never have come into power if the United States had stayed in Iraq, and if the United States had “taken the oil,” especially in Libya.
　　特朗普说如果美国留在伊拉克，如果美国“拿走石油”，尤其在利比亚，伊斯兰国永远不会掌权。
　　The assertion is impossible to disprove, but it’s unlikely that 10,000 troops remaining in Iraq would have made much of a difference — especially in Syria and Libya, where the United States never had troops. Moreover, much of the Islamic State’s revenue has come from smuggling 8 and taxes on local people, and much of the oil infrastructure 9 has been destroyed, as has the Islamic State’s transportation network.
　　这一说法很难证否，但10000名军队留在伊拉克不可能有什么用，尤其对叙利亚和利比亚而言，美国在那里从未驻军。另外，伊斯兰国大多数收入来自走私和对当地居民收税，大多数石油基础设施被毁，伊斯兰国的交通也被阻断。
　　—David E. Sanger
　　Mr. Trump said that the United States should have taken Iraq’s oil. It is an assertion that he made a few weeks ago, and one that was roundly criticized at the time. Seizing Iraq’s oil — or the resources of any country — is illegal under international law, and doing so would have likely prompted condemnation 10 from around the world.
　　特朗普说美国应该拿走伊拉克的石油。他几周前这样说过，当时就遭到严厉批评。掠夺伊拉克的石油或任何国家的资源都都违反国际法，这样做可能遭到全世界的谴责。
　　In purely 11 practical terms, seizing Iraq’s oil would have required tens of thousands of American troops to protect Iraq’s oil infrastructure, which is spread out across the country and largely above ground. It also is probably safe to assume that Iraqis themselves would have objected to their country’s main source of wealth being used to enrich another country.
　　从纯粹实用主义的角度说，拿走伊拉克的石油需要数万名美国士兵去保护伊拉克的石油基础设施，这些基础设施分布在全国各地，主要在地面。想必伊拉克自己也会反对用国家主要财富资源来肥富他国。
　　—Matthew Rosenberg
　　Mr. Trump accused Mrs. Clinton and President Obama of withdrawing troops and leaving a vacuum in Iraq and Syria, which allowed the Islamic State to take root. In fact, Mrs. Clinton advocated arming moderate rebels in Syria and said afterward 12 that Mr. Obama’s refusal to do so may have left a vacuum there. She also privately 13 backed a Pentagon proposal to leave a larger residual 14 force in Iraq than the administration ended up leaving.
　　特朗普谴责克林顿和奥巴马总统从伊拉克和叙利亚撤军，导致权力中空并让伊斯兰国生根。事实上，克林顿主张武装叙利亚的温和反对派，后来还说奥巴马拒绝如此导致了真空。她私下支持五角大楼的建议，政府决定撤军后，在伊拉克留下更多的武装力量。
　　—Mark Landler
　　Mr. Trump was correct in asserting that many NATO countries do not contribute their full share to NATO — a complaint that Mr. Obama and a former secretary of defense 15, Robert Gates, have also voiced. But he was wrong about NATO failing to fight terrorism. NATO was in Afghanistan starting in 2003 — part of the battle against Al Qaeda.
　　特朗普说许多北约国家贡献不足，这是对的，奥巴马和前防长盖茨也这么说。但他说北约未能打击恐怖主义是不对的，北约自2003年起就出兵阿富汗，打击基地组织。
　　—David E. Sanger
　　Mr. Trump said he opposed the war in Iraq before it began. But during the buildup to the war, he expressed his support in an interview with Howard Stern, according to audio unearthed 16 by BuzzFeed.
　　特朗普说他在伊拉克战争之前就反对这场战争。但在备战期间，他接受Howard Stern的采访时对此表达支持，BuzzFeed挖出了这段音频。
　　—Steve Eder
　　Mrs. Clinton said the United States needs an “intelligence surge” to help prevent terrorist attacks by homegrown violent extremists, but the United States already collects and shares more intelligence than ever.
　　克林顿说美国需要“情报浪潮”来避免本土暴力极端分子的恐怖主义攻击，但美国已经比以往收集和共享了更多的情报。
　　The F.B.I. has been successful in arresting suspects who are in contact with terrorist figures overseas. The greater challenge for law enforcement today is often that homegrown terrorists commit no crime until an attack.
　　联邦调查局成功逮捕了与海外恐怖头目有联络的嫌疑人。当今执法面临的更大挑战是本土恐怖分子发起攻击前没有犯罪记录。
　　And the F.B.I. is not allowed to conduct open-ended investigations 17 without evidence of criminal wrongdoing. Nor is it allowed to collect intelligence solely 18 related to people’s views. Admiring Osama bin 19 Laden 20 or the Islamic State or expressing hatred 21 for the United States is not a crime.
　　联邦调查局不允许对没有前科的人进行无限度调查，也不允许收集纯粹属于人民观点的情报。仰慕拉登或伊斯兰国，或者表达憎恨美国，这不是犯罪。
　　—Matt Apuzzo
　　Mr. Trump is wrong that the United States is “not updating” its nuclear arsenal 22. The United States has a major nuclear modernization 23 program underway, at a cost of tens of billions of dollars.
　　特朗普说错了，美国没有“升级”核武库。美国正在进行核武现代化，耗费数百亿美元。
　　On the Iran nuclear deal, he complained that the United States paid $1.7 billion in cash to Iran. It did. But it was Iran’s money, for military goods never delivered to Iran after the Iranian Revolution. (The principal was $400 million; the remaining $1.3 billion was interest owed in the ensuing three decades.)
　　关于伊朗核协定，他抱怨美国向伊朗支付了17亿美元。但那是伊朗的钱，伊朗革命后，军事品没有交货。本金是4亿美元，剩下的13亿美元是拖欠30年的利息。
　　—David E. Sanger
　　Economy
　　Mr. Trump said China is “devaluing their currency” to gain an economic advantage. This is an outdated 24 accusation 25. Countries that hold down the value of their currency can sell goods in other countries more cheaply. And many economists 26 see evidence that China suppressed the value of its currency for years, contributing to its rise as an industrial power.
　　特朗普说中国“贬值货币”获得经济优势，这是过时的指控。压低货币价值的国家可以向他国倾销货物，许多经济学家找到证据表明，中国多年压低货币价值，有利于一个工业强国的崛起。
　　But in recent years, China has sought to stabilize 27 and even increase the value of its currency, part of a broader shift in its economic policies. There is no evidence that China is presently engaging in currency devaluation.
　　但近年来，中国寻求稳定甚至升值货币，这是其经济政策的大幅转变。没有证据表明，中国目前仍在使贬值货币。
　　—Binyamin Appelbaum
　　Mr. Trump described a dire 28 situation for the United States’ industrial economy, saying that “Ford 29 is leaving,” referring to the auto 30 giant, and that “thousands of jobs are leaving Michigan, leaving Ohio. They’re all leaving.”
　　特朗普认为美国产业经济处于困境，表明汽车大佬“福特不再了”，“成千上万岗位离开密歇根、离开俄亥俄，他们都走了。”
　　Ford is moving its manufacturing of many smaller cars to Mexico, but has said that the move will not result in job losses in the United States.
　　福特公司把许多小型车工厂搬到墨西哥，但表明此举不会导致美国工作岗位减少。
　　Ohio and Michigan have indeed suffered major manufacturing job losses over the past generation. But in the past year, Ohio has gained 78,300 jobs and Michigan has gained 75,800 jobs. In August, the unemployment rate was 4.9 percent in Michigan and 4.7 percent in Ohio, both in line with the national rate.
　　俄亥俄和密歇根在过去一代人期间，的确流失了不少制造业岗位。但近年来，俄亥俄新增78300个岗位，密歇根新增75800个。8月，密歇根失业率4.9%，俄亥俄4.7%，都与全国失业率持平。
　　—Neil Irwin
　　Mrs. Clinton said that Mr. Trump’s tax plan would increase the federal debt by “over $5 trillion,” and that it would penalize 31 middle-income families.
　　The conservative Tax Foundation estimates that Mr. Trump’s plan would cost a minimum of $4.4 trillion.
　　克林顿说特朗普的减税计划将使联邦债务增加“超过5万亿美元”，这会惩罚中等收入家庭。保守的税收基金会预计，特朗普的计划最多导致4.4万亿美元债务。
　　A liberal group, Citizens for Tax Justice, pegs 32 the minimum cost at $4.8 trillion. But the final bill could be significantly greater. Mr. Trump has offered multiple versions of some elements of his plan. A tax break for small businesses, in particular, could add more than $1 trillion to the final bill.
　　自由主义团体——追求税务公正的公民，将这一数字设定为4.8万亿，但最后的账单将会更多。特朗普的计划有多个版本，给小企业减税将让账单增加1万亿。
　　The Trump campaign, however, insists that the final cost will be just $2.6 trillion. This is based on a stripped-down version of Mr. Trump’s plan — one that is inconsistent with his campaign’s public promises. It also assumes that lower tax rates will encourage much stronger economic growth, reducing the cost.
　　然而，特朗普坚称最终成本是2.6万亿，这是根据特朗普计划的瘦身版算出来的，和特朗普竞选时的承诺不符。也有人预计低税率会促进经济增长，从而降低成本。
　　Would it hurt the middle class? Mr. Trump’s plan would reduce the average tax burden for low-income, middle-income and upper-income households — but it would not cut everyone’s taxes. Indeed,a new analysis finds roughly 7.8 million families with children would pay higher taxes under Mr. Trump’s plan.
　　会伤害中产阶级吗？特朗普的计划将减轻低收入、中等收入和高收入家庭的平均税负，但不会削减所有人的税负。最新分析表明，特朗普的计划中，约780万有孩子的家庭会支付更多的税。
　　—Binyamin Appelbaum
　　Mr. Trump said that the North American Free Trade Agreement, or NAFTA, “is the worst trade deal” in American history, and possibly in world history.
　　特朗普说北美自贸协定是美国历史上，可能还是世界历史上，“最差的贸易协定”。
　　More than 20 years after its passage, NAFTA remains 33 a political lightning rod. But the evidence suggests it wasn’t a big deal in economic terms. Indeed, the Congressional Research Service concluded in 2015 that the “net overall effect of NAFTA on the U.S. economy appears to have been relatively 34 modest.” The reason: Trade with Canada and Mexico comprises a small portion of American economic activity.
　　协定通过20多年来，北美自贸协定仍然是政治避雷针。但证据显示就经济而言，这并非一个体量很大的协定。国会调研机构2015年得出结论，“北美自贸协定对美国经济的净影响微不足道。”原因：与加拿大和墨西哥的毛衣只占美国经济活动的很小一部分。
　　—Binyamin Appelbaum
　　Mr. Trump said that “we have a trade deficit 35 of almost $800 billion a year,” blaming “political hacks” who negotiate trade deals for this.
　　特朗普说“我们每年有接近8000亿美元贸易赤字”，指责谈判这一贸易协定的“政治仆从”。
　　He has the number wrong. The United States trade deficit was about $500 billion in 2015, and is on track for a similar number this year. He is likely referring to the trade deficit in goods, which was $762 billion last year. But that was counteracted 36 by a $262 billion surplus in services.
　　他记错了。美国2015年的贸易赤字5000亿美元，今年也差不多。他可能说的是货物贸易逆差，去年达7620亿美元，但服务贸易还有顺差2620亿美元。
　　In other words, while the United States imports more physical goods than it imports, it exports more services, including things like financial services, tourism, and software.
　　换言之，美国进口了更多的实物，出口了更多的服务，其中包括金融服务、旅游和软件。
　　—Neil Irwin
　　Mr. Trump said the Federal Reserve is “doing political things” by holding interest rates at a low level. He charged that the Fed would raise rates as soon as Mr. Obama left office.
　　特朗普说美联储把利率维持在低水平是“玩政治”。他指责说奥巴马一离职，美联储就会加息。
　　This is a baseless accusation. The Fed has held borrowing costs at historically low levels since the financial crisis to encourage economic growth.
　　这是毫无证据的指责。美联储自金融危机以来，为了促进经济增长，将借款成本维持在历史低位。
　　Some Fed officials would like to raise rates slightly. Some want to wait a little longer. But Fed officials are uniform in dismissing the idea that politics is playing a role in this debate, and outside experts see no evidence that the Fed is misleading the public.
　　有些美联储官员愿意轻微加息，有人希望等等看。但美联储官员全都否认这种讨论中有政治因素，外界专家也没发现美联储误导公众。
　　In attacking the Fed, Mr. Trump is plowing 37 across a line that presidential candidates and presidents have observed for the last several decades. There has been a bipartisan consensus 38 that central banks operate most effectively when they are shielded from short-term political pressures.
　　特朗普攻击美联储，越过过去几十年美国总统候选人和总统都遵循的红线。两党有共识，央行避免遭受短期政治压力，才能更有效地运行。
　　Indeed, President Richard M. Nixon’s insistence 39 that the Fed should not raise rates in the early 1970s played a role in unleashing 40 a long era of inflation — and in convincing his successors that it was better to leave the Fed to its technocratic 41 devices.
　　70年代初，尼克松坚持美联储不要加息，这导致长期的通胀，这让他的继任者相信，把美联储留给技术工具更好。
　　—Binyamin Appelbaum
　　Mrs. Clinton said, in defense of her flip-flop on the Trans-Pacific Partnership 42 trade deal, that she had “hoped it would be a good deal” but that when it was negotiated, she did not agree with the terms. In fact, Mrs. Clinton spoke 43 out more than 40 times in favor of the trade deal, saying it would be a “strategic initiative that would strengthen the position of the United States in Asia,” without making her support contingent 44 on how it would turn out.
　　克林顿为她在TPP一事上反复无常的立场辩护，她希望“这是个好协定”，但谈判时，她不同意其条款。事实上，克林顿超过40次表示支持这一协定，认为它是“强化美国在亚洲地位的战略倡议”，从未提到她的支持还要看具体内容如何。
　　—Mark Landler
　　Energy and the Environment
　　Mrs. Clinton accused Mr. Trump of saying that climate change was a hoax 45 perpetrated by the Chinese. Mr. Trump responded, “I do not say that.”
　　But in 2012, Mr. Trump tweeted, “The concept of global warming was created by and for the Chinese in order to make U.S. manufacturing noncompetitive.” Over the past year, Mr. Trump has repeatedly called climate change a hoax, and said that he is “not a believer” in the established science of human-caused climate change.
　　克林顿职责特朗普说气候变化是中国人的骗局。特朗普说“我没说过”。但2012年，特朗普发推文说：“全球变暖是中国人制造并为自己服务的概念，为了让美国的制造业失去竞争力”。去年，特朗普反复称气候变化是个骗局，表明“他不相信”主流科学界所言，人类导致气候变化。
　　—Coral Davenport
　　The Candidates
　　Mrs. Clinton said it was $14 million in loans from Mr. Trump’s father that helped him get his real estate business off the ground. Mr. Trump said it was just a “small” loan.
　　克林顿说特朗普从父亲处获得1400万美元的贷款，支撑他在房地产界立足。特朗普说只有“一小部分”贷款。
　　A recent Wall Street Journal article notes a series of loans and gifts that Mr. Trump received from his father, citing a casino disclosure document from 1985 showing that Mr. Trump owed his father and his father’s company about $14 million.
　　最近《华尔街日报》文章历数了特朗普从父亲那里得到的一系列贷款和馈赠，引用1985年赌场披露文件，表明特朗普欠父亲和父亲的公司约1400万美元。
　　—Steve Eder
　　Mr. Trump said that his Trump International Hotel is next door to the White House. It is certainly nearby, but it is not quite next door — unless you’re flying in a Trump helicopter. Walking from the White House to the hotel takes about 15 minutes, according to Google Maps.
　　特朗普说他的特朗普国际酒店与白宫挨着。当然离着不远，但也不是挨着，除非你坐特朗普直升飞机飞过去。谷歌地图显示，从白宫走到酒店要15分钟。
　　If you grab a taxi or Uber, you can cut that down to about six minutes, though it will probably take a bit longer if you drive yourself — finding a place to park in downtown Washington can be a chore.
　　如果打车或乘优步，你大概花6分钟，如果自己开车可能还有久一些，在华盛顿城区找地儿停车挺头疼的。
　　—Matthew Rosenberg
　　In defending himself for raising questions about Mrs. Obama’s birthplace, Mr. Trump said that Mrs. Clinton’s confidant Sidney Blumenthal pushed those questions on a McClatchy reporter when Obama was running for president in 2008.
　　为自己质疑奥巴马出生地做辩护时，特朗普说克林顿的密友Sidney Blumenthal提出了这个问题，当时奥巴马正在竞选总统。
　　A former McClatchy journalist has said that Mr. Blumenthal encouraged him in 2008 to explore Mr. Obama’s connections to Kenya, including whether he was born there, but Mr. Blumenthal has flatly denied this.
　　一个记者说Blumenthal在2008年鼓励他把奥巴马和肯尼亚联系起来，包括他是否出生在那里，但Blumenthal否认了这一点。
　　—Megan Twohey
　　Crime
　　Mr. Trump objected to Lester Holt’s characterization that “stop-and-frisk,” the New York Police Department practice targeting minority and high-crime areas for searching people, had been found to be unconstitutional racial profiling.
　　特朗普反对Lester Holt将“拦截搜查”——纽约警局在少数族裔居住和高犯罪区域搜人时的行动——塑造成违反宪法的种族歧视行径。
　　Mr. Trump said that the judge who issued that ruling had the case taken away from her, and that New York’s new mayor had opted 46 not to go forward with defending the policy.
　　特朗普说做出这个裁决的法官不允许负责这个案子了，纽约的新市长选择不再为警察辩护。
　　Both Mr. Holt’s and Mr. Trump’s statements are true. In 2013, a federal judge in New York, Shira A. Scheindlin, struck down the practice as unconstitutional, citing data showing that blacks and Hispanics were being disproportionately stopped. Michael R. Bloomberg, then the mayor, appealed the ruling.
　　Holt和特朗普说的都对。2013年，纽约联邦法官S.A.Scheindlin认为该行为违反宪法，引用数据表明黑人和拉美裔人员被不适当地拦停。当时的市长布隆伯格提出上诉。
　　Later in 2013, a federal appeals court removed Judge Scheindlin from the case. But then Bill de Blasio became mayor, dropped the litigation and repudiated 47 the policy, mooting 48 the litigation before it could be resolved at a higher level.
　　2013年末，联邦上诉法庭不再让Schindlin负责该案。但白思豪当选市长后，放弃了这起诉讼，谴责这一政策，在该案在更高法院裁决之前搁置了诉讼。
　　—Charlie Savage
　　Mr. Trump said that murders are up in New York City. Mrs. Clinton said they are down. Mrs. Clinton is correct. Crime statistics show that murders are down year on year, to 246 from 257.
　　特朗普说纽约的谋杀率上升，克林顿说下降。克林顿说得对，犯罪统计显示谋杀率同比下降，从257起下降到246起。
　　—Steve Eder