经济学人:商品:全球形势紧张(3)

 　　Progress in talks on the North American Free-Trade Agreement would also be good news. 北美自由贸易协定谈话中所取得的进展也是好消息。

　　But BHP, the world's biggest miner, issued a blunt assessment 1 of the longer-term dangers to its products 但8月21日，在其前景年终总结中
　　during its otherwise promising 2 year-end results on August 21st. 世界最大的矿业公司必和必拓公司发布了一份商品更长期危害评估。
　　It said protectionism was "exceedingly unhelpful" for broad-based global growth, 它表示贸易保护主义对基础广泛的全球增长是“极其无益的”，
　　adding that Sino-American trade tensions could weaken both countries' GDP growth by a quarter to three-quarters of a percentage point, absent counter-measures. 它还说道，由于缺乏对策，中美贸易紧张会将对两国GDP增长造成从四分之一个百分至四分之三个百分点的削减。
　　Both America and China imposed another tranche of tariffs 3, on a further $16bn-worth of each other's goods, on August 23rd. 8月23日，中美两国相互对价值160亿美元的商品增加一轮关税。
　　Analysts 4 point to two main ways in which these tensions hurt commodity prices. 分析师指出了这些紧张会对商品价格造成影响的两种主要方式。
　　The first is because of the rising importance of emerging markets to demand. 第一是由于新兴市场对需求的重要性在不断增长。
　　In a report in June, the World Bank calculated that almost all the growth in the past 20 years in global metal consumption, 在今年6月份的报告中，世界银行估算，过去20年中全球金属消耗的所有增长、
　　two thirds of the increase in energy demand and two-fifths of the rise in food consumption came from seven countries: 能源需求2/3的增长以及食物消耗2/5的增长都来自7个国家：
　　Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Mexico, Russia and Turkey. 巴西、中国、印度、印尼、墨西哥、俄罗斯以及土耳其。
　　This group now exceeds the Group of Seven industrial nations in consumption of coal and all base and precious metals, 这七个国家如今在碳、基底金属、稀有金属以及大米、小麦和大豆消耗方面
　　as well as of rice, wheat and soyabeans. Commodity prices are therefore far more sensitive to these countries' fortunes than they used to be. 超过了西方七个工业大国集团。所以商品价格对这些国家的命运而言要比以往更加敏感。
　　Hence their walloping last week when the plunging 5 Turkish lira gave a shock to other fragile currencies. 因此当土耳其里拉暴跌，他们所受的打击让其他脆弱的货币为之震颤。
　　The second is speculation 6. Ole Hansen, head of commodities strategy at Saxo Bank, says that 第二个是投机。盛宝银行商品战略主管奥勒·汉森表示
　　fears of a trade war have clobbered 7 prices of the most globally traded commodities, notably 8 copper 9, as short positions by speculators have surged. 对贸易战争的恐惧打击了大部分全球贸易商品价格，尤其是铜，因为投机者的空头激增。
　　China accounts for half the world's demand for copper, the same share as its consumption of steel. 中国的铜需求占全球铜需求的一半，与其钢铁消耗份额一样。
　　Yet steel prices have fared much better because the most liquid steel contract is in China, 而钢铁价格进展更加顺利，因为大部分钢水合约都在中国，
　　which is much more affected 10 by domestic supply and demand factors than big global bets. 其更多的是受国内供应于需求的影响而非全球押注的影响。
　　A steel-futures contract in Shanghai touched a seven-year high on August 22nd. 8月22日，上海一份钢材期货交易合同创7年新高。
　　As ever, demand from China remains 11 the biggest swing factor for commodities. 中国需求如往常一样仍是商品最大的浮动因素。
　　BHP reckons China will use fiscal 12 and monetary 13 expansion to help offset 14 the impact to its exports from the trade conflict, BHP认为中国将利用财政及货币扩张帮助抵消贸易冲突对其出口的影响，
　　which could benefit commodities. But even if the worst is now priced in, plenty of volatility 15 lies ahead. 而商品也将获益。但即便现在最糟糕的一面已经出现，前方还有很多波动。
　　As Mr Seifried quips from the cornfields of Nebraska, "predicting the future is a son of a bitch". 正如赛弗里德在内布拉斯加州的玉米地里嘲弄，“预测未来是个狗杂种”。