经济学人218:美国与伊斯兰国 再担重任

 　　America and Islamic State

　　美国与伊斯兰国
　　Mission relaunched
　　再担重任
　　The fight against Islamic State will help define America's role in the world
　　打击伊斯兰国能帮助美国定位自己的国际角色
　　FOR more than three years, Barack Obama has been trying to avoid getting into a fight in Syria. But this week, with great tracts 1 of the Middle East under the jihadist's knife, he at last faced up to the inevitable 2. On September 23rd America led air strikes in Syria against both the warriors 3 of Islamic State (IS) and a little-known al-Qaeda cell, called the Khorasan group, which it claimed was about to attack the West. A president who has always seen his main mission as nation-building at home is now using military force in six countries—Syria, Iraq, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Yemen and Somalia.
　　三年有余，奥巴马一直避免卷入叙利亚的战斗。但在本周，随着大片中东土地在圣战主义者的利刃下沦陷，奥巴马终做出在所难免的决定。9月23日，美军领导发动叙利亚境内空袭，同时打击“伊斯兰国”和一个名为“呼罗珊集团”的基地组织分支，该集团尚未出名，但美国称其预备对西方国家发起恐怖袭击。这位一向把其工作重心放在国家内部建设的总统现在对六个国家动用军事力量，包括叙利亚，伊拉克，阿富汗，巴基斯坦，也门和索马里。
　　The Syrian operation is an essential counterpart to America's attacks against IS in Iraq. Preventing the group from carving 4 out a caliphate means, at the very least, ensuring that neither of these two countries affords it a haven 5. But more than the future of IS is at stake in the streets of Raqqa and Mosul. Mr Obama's attempt to deal with the jihadists is also a test of America's commitment to global security. It is a test that he has been failing until now.
　　叙利亚空袭是呼应美国对伊拉克境内“伊斯兰国”打击的重要行动。美国要防止“伊斯兰国”在中东地区站稳脚跟，或者至少，保证这两个国家都不会成为该组织的避难所。但是不仅“伊斯兰国”在拉卡和摩苏尔的未来发展岌岌可危，奥巴马总统如何应对圣战分子，其做法也是对美国“世界安全卫士”承诺的一次考核。直到这一刻，奥巴马总算给了这次考核一个合格的答复。
　　美国与伊斯兰国.jpg
　　IS et al
　　“伊斯兰国”及其它
　　The sense that America is locked in relative decline has been growing in recent years, as it has languished 6 under the shadow of the financial crisis and two long, difficult wars. Why should a newly rich country like China take lectures about how to run its affairs from a president who struggles even to get his own budget through? America, meanwhile, seems swamped by the forces of disorder 7, either unable or unwilling 8 to steady a world that is spinning out of control. IS embodies 9 this frightening trend. It is, in the jargon 10, a non-state actor, and it thrives on chaos 11. With each new humiliation 12 of the governments in Iraq and Syria, it has accumulated more wealth, territory and recruits.
　　鉴于美国受金融风暴和两次拖沓、艰苦的战争影响，近些年一直有质疑美国在走下坡路的论调。对于一个连自己国家预算都摆不定的总统，中国这种财富新锐国家又有什么向其取经的必要呢？同时，美国似乎陷入了混乱力量的泥潭中，既不愿、也没有能力稳定这个逐渐失控的世界。“伊斯兰国”的事件正说明了这一骇人趋势。术语中“伊斯兰国”应属于一个非国家行为体，它就建立在一片混乱之上。它不断给伊拉克政府和叙利亚政府抹上新的屈辱，由此聚敛财富、土地和兵力。
　　Its rise has also reflected American policy. First, the poorly thought-out intervention 13 of George W. Bush, typified by the rash “Mission Accomplished” banner that greeted him on the USS Abraham Lincoln in May 2003 after his invasion of Iraq. Then Mr Obama's studious inaction. When Syrians rose up against the regime of Bashar Assad, the president stood back in the hope that things would sort themselves out—leaving Mr Assad free to commit atrocities 14 against his own people. Even when Mr Assad crossed “the red line” of using chemical weapons, the superpower did not punish him. About 200,000 Syrians have died and 10m have been driven from their homes. Denied early American support, the moderate Syrian opposition 15 has fragmented, leaving the field to the ruthless and well-organised IS.
　　“伊斯兰国”的崛起也反映了美国政策的失误。第一桩错是乔治·W·布什的种种轻率行为：其标志就是2003年5月在迎接其从伊拉克凯旋的林肯号上公然写着“使命完结”的大幅标语。第二桩错是奥巴马政府的不作为：叙利亚人民奋起反抗巴沙尔·阿萨德政权时，奥巴马总统退居幕后，指望事情能自己好转起来—他的不作为使得阿萨德更加肆意妄为，践踏百姓。甚至在阿萨德动用化学武器的行为已然越界时，美国这个超级大国都没有对其严惩。他的做法导致约20万叙利亚人民死亡，超过1000万人被驱逐出境。没有美国及时的帮助，温和的叙利亚反对派分崩离析，令这个国家陷入精心组织、残暴无情的“伊斯兰国”控制之下。
　　Standing 16 back has not worked well elsewhere in the world, either. Mr Obama has spoken about the limits to American power—exhorting other governments with a stake in today's system to do their bit to keep the world safe. He wanted the United States to be seen less as a unilateral bully 17, more as the leader of world opinion. Yet when America stepped back, its allies stepped back, too. The countries that most eagerly came forward were its rivals, such as Russia and China.
　　这种不作为的做法在任何地方都行不通。奥巴马说美国的力量是有限的，他想要当今世界其它有点能力的政府也对维护世界和平贡献一份力。他不想让美国看上去是个只会动武的恶霸，而想让其成为意见领袖。然而美国没有发声时，它的伙伴国也没有做出回应。那些自告奋勇站出来的国家都是它的对手，如俄罗斯和中国。
　　IS has induced a change of heart among the American people. Before vicious extremists seized the city of Mosul and began to cut off Western heads on social media, Americans doubted the merit of further military action in the Middle East. When they realised that IS threatened them directly, they began to demand protection. Mr Obama therefore has a chance not just to strike a blow for order in the Middle East, but also to give the declinists pause.
　　“伊斯兰国”的行为诱发了美国人心态的变化。在这群狠毒的极端分子攻占摩苏尔城，砍下西方媒体记者的头颅之前，美国国民尚质疑对中东地区采取进一步军事行动是否合理。当他们意识到伊斯兰国对自己的威胁时，就立马要求采取行动，保护自己了。奥巴马这下不仅要重整中东秩序，还要一扫美国衰败论的论调。
　　From axis 18 of evil to network of death
　　从“邪恶轴心”到“死亡之网”
　　He has brute 19 force on his side. The disastrous 20 mismanagement of post-invasion Iraq has tended to eclipse the overwhelming potency 21 of American firepower at the beginning. In six short weeks in the spring of 2003 America and its allies defeated the 375,000 troops of Saddam Hussein with the loss of only 138 American lives. Never in history has a single country had such military dominance. It has not suddenly evaporated.
　　奥巴马手握强大兵力，起初美国军火的压倒性力量似乎受到其在伊拉克未处理得当的战后布置的影响。但想想在2003年春天，短短六周里美军和其盟军就以138名美国士兵的代价击退了萨达姆·侯赛因的37万5千人大军。历史上从没有哪个国家在军事上拥有如此的统治地位，这种强大的地位即使受到影响，也不可能在一夕间消失。
　　The bigger question is whether Mr Obama can carry off delicate diplomacy 22. The lesson from Iraq and Afghanistan is that firepower alone will not prevail. Indeed, if America comes to be seen by Sunni Arabs as nothing more than a Shia air force, strikes will only bind 23 IS to the local people.
　　问题在于奥巴马总统是否拥有精妙的外交手段。从在伊拉克和阿富汗的教训来看，光有长枪大炮不见得能让美国稳居上风。要是在逊尼派的眼中，美国和一支什叶派空军没什么分别的话，难说当地人民不会同“伊斯兰国”携起手来。
　　If he is to win the argument in Iraq and Syria, Mr Obama needs coalitions 24 and partnerships 25. For that he must get the diplomacy right. So far he has done well. He insisted on the replacement 26 of Nuri al-Maliki, the Shia-chauvinist former prime minister of Iraq, with Haider al-Abadi, who is making efforts to bring Sunnis into government. He sent John Kerry, his secretary of state, to recruit regional Sunni powers such as Saudi Arabia and Jordan, to try to persuade Sunnis in Iraq and Syria that he is not taking sides against their branch of Islam. America has argued to the United Nations that its intervention—requested by Iraq but not Syria—is legal under Article 51 of the UN's charter. Ban Ki-moon, the UN secretary-general, appears to have accepted that argument; so should Britain's Parliament, which will vote on whether to help America.
　　奥巴马要想赢得伊拉克和叙利亚的舆论支持，就得发展盟友，而这就需要他用到外交手段。到目前为止，他做得还不错。他坚持用Haider al-Abadi代替伊拉克前总理，什叶派沙文主义者努里·马利基(Nuri al-Maliki)，前者正努力让逊尼教徒进入政府。他派遣国务卿约翰·克里(John Kerry)游说逊尼派强国，如沙特阿拉伯和约旦，让它们帮忙说服伊拉克和叙利亚的逊尼派势力相信美国并没有反对他们的教派。他向联合国辩称自己的介入—是伊拉克要求的，而不是叙利亚—根据联合国章程第51条表明，是合法的。联合国秘书长潘基文似乎接受了这种说法，而英国议会即将就是否帮助美国做出投票表决，其也应当接受这种说法。
　　There is much more for Mr Obama to do. The coalition-building is not complete. Turkey, a NATO member, is at last suggesting it favours action against IS, but it needs to be seen to help. Holding the alliance together will require patience, flexibility 27 and a judicious 28 mix of bullying 29 and seduction. Mr Obama will have to put in many more long hours on the telephone with world leaders than he has done so far. And even if he succeeds in substantially destroying IS, new horrors may emerge from the ensuing vacuum if he does not help benign 30 local forces to fill it.
　　奥巴马要做的还有很多，他还要继续发展联盟。北约成员国土耳其最终表明它同意打击“伊斯兰国”，但还没有实际行动。联合各同盟国需要耐心，灵活应变力和软硬兼施的高明手段。奥巴马大概得拿出比以往都多的时间，同各国领袖好好煲一煲电话粥。而且即使“伊斯兰国”组织被成功摧毁，如果他没能帮助当地温和势力及时填补空缺，新的麻烦又会接踵而至。
　　Americans will grumble 31 about the superpower's lot. Of course, European allies can do more; of course, Asia's emerging powers should support the world order. But it is also plainly in America's interest to stay involved—and, when necessary, to show that it will put its might behind right, if only to deter 32 the world's tyrants 33 and terrorists from further mischief 34. Although the mission to stop IS will be long and hard, it is one that no other nation could even contemplate 35. Mr Obama is right to relaunch it. Now he must see it through.
　　美国人也要抱怨其身处超级大国的烦恼。诚然，欧洲同盟国可以多做些贡献，亚洲的新兴国家也应当帮助维护世界秩序。但是说白了，美国的身处其中，并且在必要时动用武力伸张正义，制止暴君和恐怖分子的进一步作恶，对美国本身也是有利的。阻止“伊斯兰国”扰乱秩序的使命是个艰难的持久战，除了美国外没有哪个国家能够担当。奥巴马重新承担使命的做法是正确的，现在他必须坚持到底。