VOA双语新闻：佩林效应将如何影响美国大选？

　　Republican presidential nominee 1 John McCain has shaken up the race for the White House and pumped new excitement into his campaign by choosing Alaskan Governor Sarah Palin as his vice 2 presidential candidate.

美国共和党总统候选人麦凯恩选择阿拉斯加州州长萨拉.佩林作为副总统候选人，使白宫之争激烈起来，为他的竞选活动注入了新的活力。

Several polls taken after the Republican National Convention show John McCain's popularity ratings are surging upward, and some show him holding a slight lead over his opponent, Barack Obama.

共和党全国代表大会后，几次民调显示，麦凯恩的支持率暴涨，有些民调更显示他些微领先竞争对手奥巴马。

One poll in particular may be causing concern for the Obama campaign. A new Washington Post/ABC News survey finds McCain is now ahead of Obama by 12 points among white women, 53 to 41 percent.

有一次调查可能会让奥巴马的竞选团队感到不安。《华盛顿邮报》和美国广播公司ABC的联合调查发现，麦凯恩在白人女性选民中的支持率领先奥巴马12个百分点，53%比41%。

Last month Senator Obama held an eight point lead over McCain among white women voters in the same poll, representing a stunning 3, 20 point shift among that group.

上个月，同一份调查刚刚显示，参议员奥巴马在白人女性选民中的支持率领先麦凯恩8个百分点，这表示这个群体发生了令人吃惊的20百分点的变化。

There is similar movement, but not quite as dramatic, in another poll released this week. A new NBC/Wall Street Journal poll shows Obama's lead among women shrinking from 14 points a month ago to just four points now.

这个星期公布的民调还有另一个类似的趋势，但是没有这么戏剧性。由美国全国广播公司NBC和《华尔街日报》进行的联合调查显示，奥巴马在女性选民中的领先从一个月前的14%下跌到目前只有4%。

Karlyn Bowman, Senior Fellow with the conservative American Enterprise Institute, and an expert on U.S. politics and public-opinion polls, says it is not clear whether this major shift in opinion will last, but it is clear that a lot of American women can relate to Palin, a 44-year-old mother of five. "But I also think that Sarah Palin connected with a lot of ordinary women voters, with her speech at the convention, with the discussions of her family, and some of the struggles and ups and downs that family has had."

美国企业研究所高级研究员、美国政治和民意调查专家卡林饱曼说，目前还不清楚这种民意的重大变化是否会持续下去，但是清楚的是，许多美国女性对44岁的、5个孩子的母亲佩林感到亲切。她说：“我认为佩林在共和党代表大会上的演说，她谈到的她的家庭以及家庭的酸甜苦辣，打动了许多普通女性选民。”

Palin emerged at the Republican National Convention as a virtual unknown on the national stage, and her family has played a prominent role in her introduction to the country. She has a five-month-old son with with Down's Syndrome 4, and a 17-year-old daughter who is pregnant and plans to marry the baby's father.

佩林在共和党全国代表大会上从一个几乎默默无闻的人物跃上全国的政治舞台，她的家人在将她推向全国民众的过程中发挥了重要作用。她有一个5个月大的患有唐氏症的儿子，有一个怀孕的、准备嫁给小孩父亲的17岁的女儿。

Janice Crouse, with the socially-conservative Christian 5 political action group Concerned Women for America, says she believes a majority of American women will support Palin in the election because they agree with her on important issues. "The majority of American women are very common sense people. You know, they support traditional American values, they know the value of marriage, they know the value of family, they know the value of life. And they admire someone who puts feet to their beliefs, who is authentic 6, who is real, who is not just spinning things for a political benefit."

珍妮丝.克罗丝是保守的基督教政治团体“忧国妇女同盟”成员。她说，她相信大多数美国妇女会在选举中支持佩林，因为她们在许多议题上认同她的意见。她说：“绝大多数美国妇女非常通情达理。她们支持传统的美国价值观，她们知道婚姻的价值，她们知道家庭的价值，她们知道生命的价值。她们敬慕能实践这些理念的人，非常实在的人，真实的人，不为了政治利益而转弯抹角的人。”

Palin says she opposes abortion 7 even if the mother is a victim of rape 8 or incest and some analysts 10 say her views hold strong appeal for social conservatives, both men and women who constitute an important base of the Republican Party. But they say many other women will have trouble with her views on social issues once they get to know her better.

佩林说她反对堕胎，即使孩子的母亲是强暴和乱伦的受害者也是如此。一些分析家认为，她的观点对社会保守派有强烈的吸引力，无论男女，这些人是共和党的重要基础。但是分析人士说，其他许多女性在进一步了解她之后，会在社会议题上与她意见相佐。

ABC analyst 9 Matthew Dowd says when there is a sudden and large shift in polls such as with Palin, it is usually temporary. "Usually when you have swings this large and this quick, they do not stick for a long time. They are quick, because something has changed fundamentally, and then people take a second look at this," he said.

美国广播公司ABC的分析家马修.道得说，像佩林这样造成民调突然或大幅度改变，通常是暂时的。他说：“通常，这种大幅度和突然的改变不会持久。这种变化来得快，因为某些事情彻底改变了，但是人们过后会谨慎思考。”

There was a similar phenomenon in 1984, when Democratic presidential candidate Walter Mondale nominated Geraldine Ferraro as his vice presidential candidate. She was the first woman to be nominated as vice president on a major U.S. party ticket, Palin is the second.

1984年也发生过类似的现象，民主党候选人沃尔特.蒙代尔提名杰拉尔丁.费拉罗作为副总统候选人。她是美国政党史上第一个被提名为副总统候选人的女性，佩林是第二个。

Mondale's pick gave him a sudden 15-point boost in the polls, but within weeks, the numbers returned to where they were before. Mondale ended up losing the election in a landslide 11 to Ronald Reagan.

蒙代尔的这个选择让他在民意调查中突然上升了15个百分点，但是几个星期以后，数字就回到了原来的位置。蒙代尔最后惨败给里根。

The Palin phenomenon has definitely caught the Obama campaign by surprise. Obama acknowledged that Palin has energized 12 Republicans, but said he could not believe that voters would being swinging back and forth 13 "this wildly." "What we are going to have to do is see how things settle out over the next few weeks, when people start examining who is actually going to deliver on the issues that people care about."

佩林现象无疑让奥巴马竞选团队大吃一惊。奥巴马承认佩林为共和党带来活力，但他说他不相信选民会有如此激烈的转变。他说：“我们要做的是观察今后几个星期情况如何发展，也就是人们开始认真考虑谁才能解决大家关心的问题的时候。”

With less than eight weeks to go to the November 4 election, women voters may determine whether Governor Sarah Palin is a shooting star or a political force to be reckoned with now and in the future.

现在距离11月4日的大选还有不到8个星期，女性选民可能会决定佩林只是一颗政治流星还是一股现在和将来都不可忽视的政治力量。