VOA双语新闻：北韩推动持续几十年弹道导弹计划

　　As speculation 1 continues over the health of North Korean leader Kim Jong Il, there are new signs the North is advancing its decades-old ballistic missile program.

在外界继续就北韩领导人金正日的健康状况做出种种猜测之际，有新的迹象显示，北韩正在推动持续了几十年的弹道导弹计划。

Private sector 2 intelligence analysts 3 have made public for the first time an apparent missile base in North Korea. A report to be published next week by Jane's Defense 4 Weekly is expected to unveil satellite images of the North Korean facility near Podong-ni. Analysts say it appears designed to accommodate test launches of long-range missiles.

私营情报机构分析人员首次公开了有关北韩一个导弹基地的情况。简氏防务周刊预计将公布北韩浦洞里附近一个设施里卫星的照片。分析人员说，看上去这颗卫星是为了试射远程导弹而建造的。

North Korea has poured a large amount of its economic output into missile development for decades. It has about 800 missiles capable of hitting South Korea and Japan, and test-fired a missile directly over Japanese territory in 1998. North Korea test-fired a long-range missile in 2006, a few months before it conducted its first test explosion of a nuclear weapon.

北韩几十年来把大量的经济资源用于研制导弹。北韩现在有大约800枚可以打到韩国和日本的导弹，1998年曾经试射过一枚飞越日本领空的导弹，2006年试射了一枚远程导弹，几个月之后又进行了第一次核武器爆炸试验。

David Asher is a former coordinator 5 of North Korea policy at the U.S. State Department. During a visit to Seoul this week, he said there are signs North Korea may be contemplating 6 more missile tests.

戴维.阿舍曾经是美国国务院北韩政策协调员。他这个星期访问首尔的时候说，有迹象显示，北韩可能正在考虑进行更多的导弹试验。

"Last week there was a statement by the KCNA, the [North] Korean news agency ... it stated that North Korea has the right to test a satellite. Well, this is exactly what they did before they tested the Taepodong a few years ago. And I would be very concerned, personally, just based on that, that they are going to do this again," said Asher.

他说：“上星期，北韩官方通讯社宣称，北韩有权试验卫星。几年前他们试射大浦洞导弹之前就是这么说的。正因为如此，我个人非常担心他们会再次这样做。”

South Korean Defense Minister Lee Sang-hee was quoted in local media as saying he is aware of the missile base, and believes it is 80 percent complete. Defense Minister Lee was quoted as saying there have been no unusual moves by the North's military, amid the possibly declining health of North Korean leader Kim Jong Il. South Korea is not taking any immediate 7 steps to raise its level of defense alert.

媒体援引韩国国防部长官李相熹的话说，他知道这个导弹基地的存在，也相信这个基地已经建成百分之八十。报导引述李相熹的话说，尽管传出北韩领导人金正日健康恶化的消息，但北韩军队并没有任何不寻常的活动。韩国军方也没有计划提升防卫戒备。

South Korea's intelligence agency revealed this week its belief the North's leader is recovering from a cerebral 8 hemorrhage, or stroke, he suffered last month. North Korean officials reject the reports as a worthless conspiracy 9. Nonetheless, Kim Jong Il has not been seen in public since August 14.

韩国情报单位这个星期透露，金正日上个月发生脑出血或中风，目前在康复中。北韩官员指责报导是不值得一提的阴谋，然而，北韩领导人金正日在8月14号后就没有公开露面。

Kim Jong Il has absolute personal control of North Korea's secretive government. He has never publicly named a successor. Leaders view any compromise of his health as potentially destabilizing to the North Korean system - and even to peace on the Korean peninsula.

金正日是北韩秘密政权的最高领导人，他从未公开宣布未来的接班人，一般认为，如果他的健康出现问题，可能对北韩政治体系甚至朝鲜半岛的和平带来严重冲击。

Brian Myers specializes in North Korea's propaganda and official communications at South Korea's Dongseo University. He says North Korea's domestic media is absolutely silent about international reports on their leader's health.

迈尔斯是韩国东西大学专门研究北韩官方宣传与传播的教授。他说，北韩媒体对国际间有关金正日健康的报告保持绝对的沉默。

"What we can expect are editorials that condemn 10 the rest of the world for making baseless rumors 11, but I do not think the North Korean press will explain to the people what those rumors are," he said.

“我们可以预期北韩媒体发表社论批评国际社会捏造没有事实根据的谣言，但我不认为这些社论会向民众解释谣言的内容是什么。”

He says health problems may put a dent 12 in the North's efforts to portray 13 Kim Jong Il as an all-powerful leader.

"It does compromise his image because North Korean propaganda has always praised Kim Jong Il for his sturdy constitution, and compared it favorably to the poor health of other leaders," he said.

He says average North Koreans are probably aware of their leader's health situation, via broadcast and cell phone technology, as well as robust 14 business contact with China.

迈尔斯说，北韩老百姓或许能从广播，手机信息或者与中国的商业接触中，