TED演讲:为什么你应该热爱统计学(7)-英语课

时间：2019-02-14 作者：英语课 分类：TED演讲科学篇

英语课

How about the next question? This is asking about what the average age is, 那么下一个问题呢？这是问关于年龄的中位数，

so the age at which half the population are younger and half the population are older. 也就是该地区大于和小于这个年龄的人口数相等。
And I thought 35 -- that sounds middle-aged 1 to me. 我以为是35--那对我来说是中年。
Actually, in Exeter, it's incredibly young, and I had underestimated the impact of the university in this area. 实际上，在埃克塞特，结果是惊人的年轻，是我低估了大学在这个区域的影响。
The questions get harder as you go through. So this one's now asking about homeownership: 随着测试的进行，问题的难度会增加。这个问题有关房屋所有权：
For every 100 households, how many are owned with a mortgage or loan? 在一百个家庭中，有多少个是有贷款或借债的？
And I hedged my bets here, because I didn't want to be more than 50 out on the answer. 我没有直接选出脑海中的数字，因为我不想有超过五十个。
And actually, these get harder, these questions, 实际上，这些问题变得越来越困难，
because when you're in an area, when you're in a community, things like age -- there are clues to whether a population is old or young. 因为当你在一个地区，在一个社区，人口是否老龄化或是年轻化这样的事情，是很容易找到线索的。
Just by looking around the area, you can see it. 看看周围环境就知道了。
Something like homeownership is much more difficult to see, 像房屋所有权这样的事要观察起来就困难得多，
and so we revert 2 to our own heuristics, our own biases 3 about how many people we think own their own homes. 所以我们还原了我们的启发法，关于我们自认为有多少人拥有房屋所有权的偏差。
Now the truth is, when we published this quiz, the census 4 data that it's based on was already a few years old. 然而真相是，当我们发表这个测试时，我们所依据的普查数据已经是好几年前的了。
We've had online applications that allow you to put in a post code and get statistics back for years. 我们有一个在线应用，你可以输入邮编，然后得到过去几年的数据。
So in some senses, this was all a little bit old and not necessarily new. 所以，在某种程度上，这是有点儿过时的数据。
But I was interested to see what reaction we might get by gamifying the data in the way that we have, 但是我很感兴趣会得到什么样的反应，用我们已有的方式去使数据游戏化，
by using animation 5 and playing on the fact that people have their own preconceptions. 通过使用动画以及利用人们会有先入之见这一事实。
It turns out, the reaction was, um ... was more than I could have hoped for. 结果是，反应... 比我所期望的要好。
It was a long-held ambition of mine to bring down a statistics website due to public demand. 对我来说，运营数据网站需要持久的雄心，因为公众有着庞大的需求。