经济学人:苏格兰举行独立公投 卡梅伦大呼留下来

 　　Britain Scotland's independence referendum

　　英国 苏格兰独立公投
　　Och aye the No
　　还是投反对票吧
　　Scotland ponders whether independence and separation are the same thing
　　苏格兰思考独立和分离是不是一回事
　　Should Scotland be an independent country or not?
　　苏格兰应不应该独立？
　　In negotiations 1 concluded on October 15th, David Cameron secured the single in-or-out question that he wanted. But the choice facing Scottish voters in 2014, and the campaigns to influence them, will not be nearly as simple as the words on the ballot 2 suggest.
　　在10月15日结束的谈判中，大卫·卡梅伦如愿确保了公投只涉及简单的是或否的问题。但是，苏格兰选民到2014年面临的选择，以及之后会对他们造成影响的各种竞选活动，将远不如选票上的那几个字那样简单。
　　John Curtice, a psephologist 3 at Strathclyde University, says that Scots divide into three roughly equally-sized camps. The first lot want independence. The second prefer the status quo. A final group, accounting 4 for about 30% of those polled, would like to stay in the union but also want more powers for Scotland. In effect, they are the swing voters. With two years to go until the referendum, the campaigns are already converging 5 on them.
　　斯特拉斯克莱德大学的选举学家约翰·柯蒂斯表示，苏格兰选民分为三个规模大致相同的阵营。一个阵营希望苏格兰独立。一个希望保持现状。最后一个阵营占参与民调的人数的30%，他们仍想留在联合王国里，但也想中央下放给苏格兰更多权力。事实上，他们属于摇摆选民。尽管距公投还有两年时间，各类竞选活动已经在向他们靠拢了。
　　苏格兰独立公投.jpg
　　The separatist Scottish National Party (SNP) will try to woo them by making independence seem trivial. The party has already underlined its enthusiasm for the queen, the BBC, the pound, the Bank of England’s interest rates and British opt-outs from irksome European Union rules. Its leader, Alex Salmond, talks of a “social union” between England and a newly-independent Scotland. But he will have a hard time convincing Scots he can deliver these things. Independent Scottish participation 6 in sterling 7, EU opt-outs and the BBC are not, and will never be, in his gift.
　　独立派的苏格兰民族党（SNP）将通过弱化独立的重要性尝试争取这类选民的支持。该党已经强调其爱戴女王、关注英镑和英格兰银行利率并支持英国选择不受欧盟那些讨人厌的规矩的约束。党领袖阿历克斯·萨尔蒙德也谈论英格兰和新独立的苏格兰之间的 “社会联合”。但他想要让苏格兰选民相信他可以做到这些事情，还需要费一番功夫。苏格兰独立后是否继续使用英镑，是否在对待欧盟问题上与英格兰保持一致，是否会让BBC覆盖苏格兰，都不是、而且也永远不会是由他随意决定的。
　　Unionists, meanwhile, are trying to convince Scots that voting “no” would result in a hefty dose of new powers. On signing the referendum agreement, Mr Cameron called on Scots in favour of more devolution to vote to stay in the United Kingdom. Labour has launched a commission to draw up a new devolution package, which will report next year and advance a final set of proposals in 2014. The Liberal Democrats 8 have already proposed far-reaching changes, including a new federal structure for the entire union. Under their plan, Scotland would raise about two thirds of the money it spends.
　　与此同时，统一派则试图说服苏格兰人，投否定票会使苏格兰获得大量新的权力。在签署公投协议时，卡梅伦呼吁支持权力下放的苏格兰人投票留在联合王国里。工党已经成立了一个委员会来设计一整套新的权力下放议案，该委员会将于明年提出报告，并在2014年拿出最终方案。自由民主党已提议进行影响深远的改革，其中包括在整个王国建立一个新的联邦架构。根据他们的计划，苏格兰获得的中央拨款将增加三分之二。
　　Jeremy Purvis, of the pressure group Devo Plus, hopes that the unionist parties’ schemes will coalesce 9 in the run-up to the referendum. He claims this will present voters with a clear set of commitments, to feature in all three main parties’ manifestos for the 2015 election, showing that a vote against separation is not a vote for the status quo.
　　压力集团Devo Plus的杰里米·珀维斯希望，统一派各党在公投的预备阶段就能将各方方案合而为一。他声称这将使选民看到一整套明确的承诺，并要求使其成为三个主要政党2015年大选宣言的重头戏，从而告诉选民，投票反对分裂并不等于投票支持维持现状。
　　If that happens, much of the wind will be taken out of Mr Salmond’s sails. He may be a romantic Caledonian nationalist but many SNP voters (and even some party members) would be perfectly 10 satisfied with the advanced devolution proposed by the unionist parties. Nationalist hopes that a busy Scottish cultural calendar in 2014 and participation by 16- and 17-year-old voters will significantly boost the separatist turnout are optimistic at best.
　　如果珀维斯所言成真，萨尔蒙德就会受到出其不意的打击。他也许是一位浪漫的苏格兰民族主义者，但许多苏格兰民族党的选民（甚至包括民族党党员）将会心满意足地接受统一派各党提出的权利下放方案。但是，民族党希望2014年的各类苏格兰文化节及16至17岁的选民的加入能提高独立投票率，这也算得上乐观。
　　So the referendum is forcing the SNP to make concessions 11 to the union, while pushing unionists towards further devolution. The gap between the visions set forth 12 by the two sides, while roomy, is shrinking. It now concerns questions of identity—citizenship, flags, titles, membership of international organisations—more than retail 13 politics. Can Scotland be sufficiently 14 independent within the UK? Unless Mr Salmond can persuade the average voter that it cannot, the union is safe.
　　因此，公投正迫使苏格兰民族党对联合王国作出让步，同时敦促统一派政党进一步下放权力。双方愿景之间的差距尽管很大，却也正在缩小。现在双方关注的不仅仅是零售政治，还有身份方面的问题，即公民身份、旗帜、名号及在国际组织中的资格。苏格兰能否在联合王国中获得充分的独立？除非萨尔蒙德可以让普通选民相信不能，否则联合王国还是联合王国。