经济学人84:花旗集团 付讫前行

 Citigroup花旗集团Paying up and moving on付讫，前行The perennial 1 basket-case of American banking 2 at last shows signs of life数年崩溃下美国银行业终于显现生机THERE were many reasons why Citigroup's earnings 3 for the second quarter, released on July 14th, might have elicited 4 familiar groans 5. Revenues from its North American retail 6 operations plunged 7 by 26%, thanks in part to an abrupt 8 drop in the refinancing of mortgages due to rising interest rates. Worse, the bank agreed to a $7 billion settlement with prosecutors 9 over its dealings in mortgage-backed securities before the financial crisis, twice what analysts 10 had initially 11 expected and 20 times what Citi had first offered. Yet in the wake of all this bad news, Citi's shares rose.

7月14日，花旗集团发布其第二季度盈利，这可能又会引发一片熟悉的呻吟声，之所以会如此，原因众多。花旗的北美零售业务收入锐减26%，部分原因是由于利率上升，抵押贷款再融资急剧下降。更糟的是，该银行同意就其在金融危机之前的抵押贷款支持证券交易支付70亿美元，与检方达成和解。这个金额是分析师此前初步预计值的两倍，更是花旗最初愿意支付金额的20倍。但是，紧随所有的这些坏消息之后，花旗的股价上涨。
In part, that is because Citi's troubles are, for the most part, reassuringly 12 typical of American banks. Wells Fargo, America's biggest bank by valuation, had previously 13 announced its first decline in earnings per share since the financial crisis thanks largely to the refinancing drought. By the same token, Citi's income from trading bonds, currencies and derivatives 14 fell no more dramatically than that of its rivals.
某种程度上，这是因为花旗的麻烦在很大程度上使众多典型的美国银行放下了心。受金融危机影响，美国市值最高的富国银行此前首次宣布每股收益下降，很大程度上要归结于再融资的干涸。同样的道理，花旗买卖债券、货币和衍生品的收入下降，其竞争对手也没讨到什么好。
花旗集团.jpgEven the settlement may have cheered investors 15. Although the accompanying statement of facts fingered the bank for giving misleading information about the quality of the mortgages that underpinned 16 securities it sold, there was little to fuel private lawsuits 17 seeking compensation. The most incriminating element was an e-mail from an unnamed trader saying, “I would not be surprised if half of these loans went down.” No employees have been charged with any sort of fraud related to the sales. Moreover, a provision of the settlement protects Citi from prosecution 18 on similar grounds for its sales from 2005 to 2007 of another sort of toxic 19 financial instrument, collateralised debt obligations.
和解协议可能会使投资者们感到振奋。尽管随附的声明已指出银行故意歪曲抵押贷款质量，提供误导性资料而出售支持证券，但几乎没有激起要求赔偿的私人诉讼。大部分控诉材料来自于一位不愿透露姓名的交易员，他发电子邮件称“这些贷款即使有一半贬值，我也不会感到惊讶。”没有员工被指控犯有任何形式的与销售相关的欺诈行为。此外，和解协议中的一项条款将花旗从类似起诉中解救出来，花旗被控自2005年到2007年间销售债务抵押债券（另一类有毒金融资产）。
Attention is now shifting to Citi's future. Michael Corbat, its boss since 2012, has concentrated on cutting costs and selling unprofitable businesses. But there are also hints of growth: lending rose by 4%, thanks to strong demand from European and American companies. Profits from advising on mergers 20 and underwriting stocks and bonds were up too—possibly a sign of bigger banking opportunities ahead.
现在，众人都将注意力转至花旗的未来上。2012年以来，花旗CEO迈克尔?考伯特一直专注于削减成本以及出售无利可图的业务。然而集团业务也有增长的迹象：得益于欧、美公司的强劲需求，银行贷款上升了4%。而为兼并和承销股票及债券提供咨询服务产生的利润亦同比增长—这可能标志着银行业更大的机会即将到来。
Citi's market capitalisation remains 21 far lower than its accounting 22 value, suggesting concerns remain about hidden problems. But the disparity has begun to shrink, as has the premium 23 it pays to borrow. As one fund manager puts it, the debate over Citi's prospects 24 has shifted from whether it might die to how it might survive.
花旗集团的市值仍远远低于其账面价值，意味着仍需关注其潜在问题。但因为它为保证金支付的借款，两数值之间的差距已经开始缩小。正如一位基金经理所说的那样，花旗的前景之争已然从它是否会就此消亡转至它该如何存活下去。