经济学人35:太阳能关税 太阳黑子

 　　Business.

　　商业。
　　Solar tariffs 2
　　太阳能关税
　　Sunspots
　　太阳黑子
　　American tariffs on Chinese solar panels are dangerous and pointless
　　美国对中国征收的太阳能电池板关税损人不利己
　　SOLAR energy is at a delicate, maybe historic, moment.The cost of the glassy photovoltaic panels that generate most solar electricity-by freeing electrons from a semiconducting material such as silicon-is plummeting 3. In the past four years their average cost has fallen by more than 75%. At less than $1 per watt 4 of generating capacity, solar is now the cheapest power source in some sunny places, especially those, like India, that lack fossil-fuelled alternatives. This is starting to look like a revolution. Everyone who wants a reliable and nonpolluting energy supply, you would think, would welcome that.
　　太阳能产业正处于一个微妙的，或许是历史性的时刻。用于太阳能发电的光伏板的造价近来一跌再跌，该板状似玻璃，其发电机理为从诸如硅的半导体材料中释放出电子。在过去的四年里，其平均价格已经下降了75%之多。每瓦产能不到一美元，这让太阳能在一些阳光充足的地方成为目前最便宜的能源，特别像在印度这样没有矿物燃料可供选择的国家。这看起来像是一场变革。可以想象，需要环保稳当能源供给的人们都会对此表示欢迎。
　　But on May 17th America's Commerce Department slapped a provisional tariff 1 of 31% on 61 Chinese makers 5 of solar panels, including some of the cheapest in the business Another group of unnamed Chinese solar companies, which failed to respond satisfactorily to the department's inquiries 6, were hit with a 250% tariff. These duties, which are expected to be confirmed in October, were in response to an anti-dumping complaint from seven solar firms including SolarWorld, a German company with operations in America.
　　可是，5月17日，美国商务部决定对61家中国太阳能电池板制造商征收31%的临时关税，包括一些业内最便宜光伏板的制造厂家。另一些不知名的中国太阳能公司因未能针对商业部的咨询提供令人满意的答复而被征收250%的关税。这些预计将在10月份得到确认的关税，是为了响应一个反倾销投诉，该投诉由包括在美国有业务的德国公司SolarWorld在内的七家太阳能公司提出。
　　China's panelmaking industry has seen explosive growth, fuelled by strong demand, mainly from Europe, but also by soft loans from state-owned lenders. Chinese panelmakers are reckoned by Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF), a research firm, to be able to make panels for around 10% less than the industry's average cost. They have undercut European and American producers: between 2009 and 2011 the value of American imports of cheap Chinese panels soared from $640m to $3.1 billion.
　　由于受到主要来自欧洲刚性需求的刺激，同时享有国有银行软贷款的优惠，中国电池板制造业发展迅猛。调查公司彭博新能源财经（Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF)）估计，中国电池板制造商制造的电池板，其价格少于业内平均成本约10%。他们削弱了欧美对手的竞争力：2009年到2011年间，美国从中国进口廉价电池板的总额从6.4亿美元猛增至31亿美元。
　　This has brought misery 7 to higher-cost producers, which a recent slowdown in demand for solar panels, caused mostly by reductions in European and American subsidies 8, has greatly exacerbated 9. Many solar firms, Chinese and otherwise, are now furiously selling inventory-the bane of an industry where prices are falling-at a loss. Some have gone bust 10, including recently a clutch of once-pioneering German firms such as Solarhybrid, Solon, Solar Millennium 11 and Q-Cells.
　　这个已经很让那些高造价的厂商苦恼，最近主要由于欧洲和美国政府削减补贴而带来的市场对光伏板需求的减缓更令其苦恼加剧。许多中国和其他国家的太阳能公司亏着本拼命甩卖库存（掉价中的产业祸根）。最近一些厂家已破产，包括一批曾是行业先驱的德国公司，如Solarhybrid, Solon, Solar Millennium 以及 Q-Cells。
　　The American tariffs, if confirmed, will annoy Chinese panelmakers-and perhaps a wide array of American exporters, too, if China's "strongly dissatisfied" government launches retaliatory 12 measures. But they are unlikely to save many Western solar firms. The tariffs were long mooted 13 (though they are even higher than expected), which has allowed Chinese exporters to build large inventories 14 in the United States.
　　美国的关税征收如果得到证实，将会惹恼中国电池板制造商。如果“强烈不满的”中国政府为此实施报复性措施，也许还会惹怒一大群美国出口商。但他们似乎不会给予西方众多太阳能企业以庇护。此次的关税征收酝酿已久（尽管甚至高于预期），在此期间中国出口商在美国囤积了大量库存。
　　Some developers of American solar projects have also signed precautionary deals, committing their Chinese suppliers to covering the cost of the mooted tariffs. The most integrated Chinese solar firms, such as SunTech, the world's biggest panel-maker, could probably stomach this, because panels represent less than a quarter of the cost of installed solar generating capacity. Financing, installation and other infrastructure 15 costs account for the rest. They will also look to make or buy panels in other Asian manufacturing hubs, such as Taiwan and South Korea. These panels will not be subject to the tariffs, even if they are assembled into solar modules 16 in China.
　　美国一些太阳能项目开发商还签署了预防协议，使得中国供应商为关税征收的酝酿埋单。像尚德太阳能（SunTech）（世界最大的电池制造商）这样的中国一体化太阳能公司或许还吃得消，因为电池板的成本还不到安装太阳能发电成本的25%。融资成本，安装成本，以及其他基础设施建设成本占75%。他们将考虑在亚洲其他如台湾，韩国的制造中心生产或购买电池板。尽管在中国电池板被组装到太阳能电池组件中，但他们不会受关税的影响。
　　Whatever the legal merits of SolarWorld's complaint, America will help neither the planet nor its own domestic consumers by shutting out Chinese solar panels. And, predicts BNEF's Nat Bullard, the tariffs will not even do much to protect American solar firms.
　　不论SolarWorld额上诉有什么法律特点，美国排挤中国太阳能产业的这种做法，既不环保，又没有保护到自己国内的消费者。而且，彭博新能源财经（BNEF）的Nat Bullard预计，这个关税甚至对美国太阳能公司起不到多大保护作用。