经济学人65:棉花出口 两不讨好

 　　Business

　　商业
　　Cotton exports
　　棉花出口
　　Knickers in a twist
　　两不讨好
　　India bans cotton exports—confusing everyone, including its government
　　印度禁止棉花出口——所有人都摸不着头脑，印政府也不例外
　　WHEN Mahatma Gandhi began spinning Indian cotton on a wheel in 1918, it symbolised his desire for national self-sufficiency.
　　1918年，圣雄甘地开始亲手纺织土布，喻以期望印度自立自强。
　　Too much of the fibre was exported to Japan and Britain, on exploitative terms, he felt.
　　他认为印度棉花多以极廉之价出口日本和英国，是对印度的伤害。
　　Almost a century on, India's cotton industry is still integrated with global production chains.
　　现如今近一个世纪过去了，印度的棉花种植业仍旧整合在全球供应链上。
　　Thus a decision on March 5th by the country's commerce ministry 1 to ban exports sent markets around the world into a tizz.
　　而3月5日印度商务部禁止棉花出口的决定令全球市场困惑不已。
　　Derivative 2 prices leapt on New York's trading floors.
　　纽交所相关衍生品的价格一飞冲天。
　　Panicky Y-front makers 3 the world over worried if their contracts were void.
　　全世界的内衣制造商们都忧心重重，担心他们的合同是否失效。
　　Excited stockbrokers 4 in Thailand told their clients to buy the shares of polyester firms.
　　兴奋的泰国证券商鼓励客户吃进涤纶公司的股票。
　　India, after all, is the world's second-largest exporter of cotton, after America.
　　毕竟印度是仅次于美国的全球第二大棉花出口国。
　　The commerce ministry seems to have been worried that short-term export commitments were more than India could comfortably meet.
　　印度商务部长可能是担心本国的棉花产量无法满足短期出口合约的需要。
　　It feared a spike 5 in domestic cotton prices, followed by hoarding 6.
　　这主要是因为害怕囤积导致国内棉价暴涨。
　　This would hurt India's textiles industry, which uses cotton as a raw material, is not in the best financial health and is a huge employer.
　　棉价暴涨必然会损害以本土棉花为原材料的国内纺织业，而印度纺织业财政状况不佳且提供大量就业。
　　India temporarily banned cotton exports in 2010 in response to similar concerns.
　　此例与2010年印度曾短期禁止棉花出口原因相似。
　　And there is a troubling backdrop, too. The world cotton market went nuts in 2011, with supply blips in some countries and high demand (partly from China) pushing global prices last year to their highest since the American civil war.
　　此次禁令的国际背景也并不轻松。2011年，随着一些供应国减产和高需求（一部分来自中国）的推动，国际棉价升至了自美国内战以来的历史最高位，国际棉花市场着实疯狂了一把。
　　After years of declining raw-material prices, clothes firms such as Gap announced profit warnings and saw their shares whacked 7.
　　而由于原材料价格连续多年的下跌，诸如盖璞（Gap，美国服装零售商）一类的服装企业宣布自己盈利预警并眼看着自己股价疲软。
　　The agricultural divisions of two big trading firms, Glencore and Noble Group, were caught with their trousers down and lost money.
　　嘉能可（Glencore,全球顶级大宗商品和矿业贸易商)和来宝集团这两大贸易公司的农业部门，也因此而名利俱损。
　　Prices have collapsed 8 since mid-2011, but after a roller-coaster ride everyone is jittery 9.
　　棉价从2011年中开始大跌，但一轮过山车般的行情之后人们变得神经兮兮。
　　China has been stockpiling a mountain of cotton, presumably to insulate its textile makers from shocks.
　　中国已囤积了大量的棉花，可能会使其国内纺织品商免受价格波动之苦。
　　India may in turn be worried that its own surplus is being whisked away to create a safety buffer 10 for the Middle Kingdom.
　　反过来印度可能会担心，由于自己国内棉花过剩，中国可能会收购印度棉花以对冲棉价上涨的风险。
　　Hence the ban.
　　这就是此次禁令的出处吧。
　　A vicious circle of price rises, stockpiling and export bans does not make sense in the medium term for any commodity, whether cotton, onions or iron ore.
　　从中期来看，棉花、洋葱以及铁矿石之类的商品陷入涨价、囤积和禁令的恶性循环决不是什么好事。
　　It erodes 11 confidence in supply chains and may dent 12 overall production.
　　这些事情会影响对供应链的信心，也可能会降低总产量。
　　Behaviour that may be rational for individual actors can cause chaos 13 if everyone copies it.
　　如果市场中的每个人都效仿某个个体的极端行为同样会造成混乱。
　　No one expects a nation to act for the common good, but it seems doubtful that India's ban is even in its own narrow interests.
　　没人指望任何一个国家为了所有国家的共同利益而行动，但印度禁止棉花出口是否出于自身利益考虑让人怀疑。
　　Trying to keep prices low favours textile makers but is bad for farmers who grow the stuff.
　　压低棉花价格对纺织业有利，但损害了棉农的利益。
　　India's agriculture minister says he was not consulted about the ban.
　　印度农业部长声称该禁令未曾与其商讨。
　　Narendra Modi, the powerful chief minister of Gujarat, a state in west India, wrote to the prime minister, Manmohan Singh, that the ban was anti-farmer.
　　印度西部古吉拉特邦的最长行政长官纳伦德拉 莫迪写信状告总理辛格称禁令伤农。
　　Mr Singh has promised an immediate 14 review.
　　辛格已承诺立即调查此事。
　　That seems likely to repeal 15 the ban.
　　如此看来此禁令可能不会长久。
　　But there may be damage to India's reputation as a reliable supplier.
　　然而此举却损害了印度做为可靠供货商的信誉。
　　As the news of the ban came out Australia's agriculture minister had just launched a report predicting that Australia would double its cotton exports between 2010 and 2013.
　　禁令一出，澳大利亚农业部长立即发表声明，预称澳大利亚的棉花出口量将在2010到2013年翻一倍。
　　His view on India's ban? "It's an opportunity."
　　澳大利亚农业部长是怎样看待印度的棉花出口禁令呢？他会认为"这是个机会。"