经济学人138:俄罗斯石油 奋起的埃克森石油

 　　Business Oil in Russia Exxonerated

　　商业 俄罗斯石油 奋起的埃克森石油
　　Where BP failed, Exxon succeeds
　　英国石油失落，埃克森石油奋起
　　FOR BP it could hardly have been worse. On August 30th Exxon Mobil struck a deal with Rosneft to explore the same icy blocks of the Arctic Kara Sea that slipped from BP's grasp when its vaunted tie-up with the Russian state-controlled oil firm collapsed 1 in the spring. Then things did get worse: the next day, one of BP's Moscow offices was raided by bailiffs.
　　8月30号，埃克森美孚与俄罗斯国家石油公司签署了一项协议，共同开发北冰洋边海喀拉海的冰层，该冰层曾在今年春天由于BP与俄罗斯国有石油公司夸大的铁关系破裂，而从英国石油公司（BP）手中溜走。对BP来说，几乎没有比这更坏的消息了。而事态却偏偏变得更加严重：第二天，BP的一个莫斯科办事处遭到了一群法警的搜查。
　　The deal is a triumph for Exxon, giving it access to one of oil's richest frontiers, with none of the nasty add-ons that tripped up BP. The British firm's proposed link with Rosneft would have meant giving the Russian firm 5% of its shares, an arrangement that BP's existing Russian partner, AAR, objected to. AAR took legal action and successfully blocked the deal.
　　该协议对于埃克森来说是一个大胜，使其能够进入最富有的石油开采前线，而不带任何曾经绊倒BP的恶心的附加条款。英国公司原先预想与俄罗斯国家石油公司的联盟将意味着转让其5%的股份予该俄罗斯公司，这一安排受到了BP当时的俄罗斯合作伙伴，AAR的反对，后者采取了法律行动，成功阻止了这次交易。
　　Exxon, in contrast, is neither swapping 2 shares nor violating any previous agreement. It has pledged to spend $2.2 billion exploring the potentially oil-rich Kara and $1 billion prospecting 3 in the Black Sea. In return, it will allow Rosneft to take minority stakes in its deep-water projects in the Gulf 4 of Mexico and onshore in Texas.
　　相反，埃克森则没有交换任何股份或违法任何先前的协议。其承诺将投资22亿美元来开采储量丰富的喀拉海，并还将在黑海进行10亿美元的投资。作为回报，埃克森将允许俄罗斯石油工业集团拥有其在墨西哥湾和德克萨斯沿岸深水项目的一小部分利益。
　　If all goes well, Exxon's total investment in Russian Arctic oil could run into hundreds of billions of dollars over a decade—a figure Russia's prime minister, Vladimir Putin, at a ceremony to launch the deal, described as "scary to utter". Whether such terrifying sums materialise will depend partly on the financial terms of Arctic exploration and the Kremlin's flexibility 5 over the tax status of the project. These are yet to be decided 6.
　　如果一切进展顺利的话，埃克森对俄国北冰洋石油开采的投资将在未来十年内达到数千亿美元-这一数字被俄国首相普京在该协议签订仪式上描述成了"不敢说出口的"。这一巨额投资能否最终实现将部分取决于北冰洋开采项目的财政情况和克里姆林宫对该项目税收地位的灵活度。这一切都是未知数。
　　Yet Exxon's plans already look more promising 7 than BP's did. When announcing that proposal, Bob Dudley, BP's boss, trumpeted 8 his knowledge of Russian politics. In fact it was BP's misjudgment of Russian politics and corporate 9 culture that did for the deal. Mr Dudley wrongly believed that getting into bed with a powerful Kremlin firm would cow his existing oligarch partners. Having now alienated 10 both, BP appears to have little protection against being pushed around in Russia—as the raid on its offices may suggest.
　　然而埃克森的计划已经看起来比BP的更加令人期待。当BP的老板Bob Dudley宣布他的提议时，他在吹嘘自己对俄国政治的理解。实际上正是BP对俄国政治和企业文化的误判导致了这次协议的失败。Dudley先生错误的认为与一个强大的俄国国有公司联盟能够给其现有的寡头伙伴一点厉害。而现在与两家的间隙难以保证BP在俄国不会被人左右-正如其受到的办公室搜查所暗示的那样。
　　To Exxon's great advantage, its deal is more important to Russia, which desperately 11 needs foreign investment and expertise 12 in its oil industry, than it is for Exxon, the world's biggest private oil firm. Rosneft's share price jumped 8% after the announcement. (It also jumped 8% the previous day in the local market, suggesting insider dealing 13.) Exxon's shareholders 15 were less giddy, perhaps reflecting on the pitfalls 16 of doing business in Russia.
　　相比埃克森这个世界最大的私人石油公司，这一协议对俄国这方更为重要，因为其石油行业正急需外国投资和技术，这使得埃克森有了巨大的优势。在协议宣布之后，俄罗斯国家石油公司的股价涨了8%（在此前一天，当地市场的股价就已经涨了8%，说明有内部交易存在。）埃克森的股东则没那么兴奋，也许是因为在俄国做生意的诸多陷阱。
　　They have experienced them. In 2003 Exxon considered buying a large stake in Yukos, then Russia's largest oil firm. Yet shortly after Lee Raymond, Exxon's chief executive, flew to Moscow to negotiate the deal with Mr Putin, Yukos's main shareholder 14, Mikhail Khodorkovsky, was arrested, Yukos was dismantled 17 and its assets were swallowed by Rosneft.
　　他们其实已经吃过一亏了。2003年，埃克森曾考虑大量购买俄罗斯当时最大的石油公司-尤科斯-的股份。然而就在埃克森的首席执行官Lee Raymond飞到莫斯科与普京讨论这一协议之后没多久，尤科斯的最大股东，Mikhail Khodorkovsky就被逮捕了，尤科斯随后被解散，资产全被俄罗斯石油工业集团吞并。
　　That outrage 18 could yet cast a shadow over the Exxon deal in America, where politicians continue to condemn 19 the Kremlin over it. Indeed, this may be one reason why Igor Sechin, Mr Putin's right-hand man, who oversaw 20 the destruction of Yukos and the Exxon deal, has kept away from America. But American oil firms are a different matter: as Exxon has shown, so long as you sit on colossal 21 oil reserves, they will always be happy to do business.
　　美国公众对这一恼人事件留下的阴影仍然影响着埃克森的此次协议。的确，这也许就是为什么普京先生的得力助手，管理尤科斯的解散和埃克森此次协议的Igor Sechin对美国一直保持距离的原因之一。但美国的石油公司则是另外一码事了：正如埃克森所表现的，只要你坐拥庞大的石油资源，他们就会一直乐意同你做生意。