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Computers Predict Pop Chart Success

Many parents are no doubt familiar with their teenagers' musical tastes. Very few are probably inspired enough to launch an experiment into them.

"I listened to some of the music my oldest teenage daughter is listening to. And I was surprised at how different that music was from what I used to listen to." Natalia Komarova, an applied mathematician at UC Irvine.

毫无疑问，许多父母熟悉他们的青少年的音乐品味。很少有人可能受到启发，并以此为实验。“我听了一些我大女儿正在听的音乐，而且我惊讶于音乐与我以前听的不同。”加州大学欧文分校应用数学家Natalia Komarova说。

"Since I'm interested in evolution in general, and a mathematical description of evolution, I thought studying the evolution of music would be a good idea."

“由于我一般对进化感兴趣，并且对进化的数学描述感兴趣，我认为研究音乐的演变，将是一个好主意。”

Komarova and her team analyzed half a million songs released in the U.K. between 1985 and 2015 using online databases that describe songs' musical characteristics, like rhythm, mood and danceability. "For example here's a song that was high on the charts in 2014 that has high danceability: 'Shake it Off' by Taylor Swift.

Komarova和她的团队分析了1985年至2015年间，在英国发行的50万首歌曲，使用描述歌曲音乐特征的在线数据库，如节奏、情绪和舞蹈等，“例如，2014年的一张歌曲，在舞曲表现力很高，舞蹈性能很高：Taylor Swift“ Shake it Off'”这首歌。

"Here's a 2014 song that has a low happiness index: Stay with me by Sam Smith." <> Overall, they found that songs had become less happy over the 30-year span; as well as more danceable, more relaxed—and more likely to have women behind the mic.

“这是一首2014年的歌曲，幸福指数很低：Sam Smith 的Stay with me这首歌。”总的来说，他们发现在30年的时间里，歌曲变得不那么开心了; 以及更具舞蹈性，更轻松了。而且女性更有可能成为麦克风后的主导者。

But the big hits bucked a number of those trends. "The behavior of successful songs looked almost like a separate species of songs. They have quantifiably different features, their own little trends."

但是，这些大热门歌曲也推动了一些趋势。“成功歌曲的行为，看起来几乎就像是一首独立的歌曲，它们具有不同的特征，它们有自己的小趋势。”

The hit singles were happier than the norm…almost a throwback to earlier times. And even more likely to be sung by women. The details are in the journal Royal Society Open Science. [Myra Interiano et al, Musical trends and predictability of success in contemporary songs on and off the top charts]

热门单曲比标准更快乐......几乎是早期的倒退。更可能由女性唱歌。详情请见英国皇家学会开放科学杂志。

Komarova's team was also able to predict a song's success, by judging only its musical qualities, about 75 percent of the time. "To me that's very positive. It means that music matters, for song success—it’s not just money." Proving that, at least when it comes to their musical tastes… the kids are alright.

Komarova的团队还能够通过判断其音乐品质，来预测一首歌的成功率。大约75%的时间，“对我来说，这是非常积极的，这意味着音乐很重要，因为歌曲的成功，不仅仅是带来金钱。”这也证明，至少当涉及到他们的音乐品味时，孩子们是可以的。“CLIP：孩子们都很好”