VOA双语新闻：亚行预测亚洲国际经济增长将放缓

　　The Asian Development Bank predicts that developing economies in Asia will see slower growth and rising inflation in the coming year. The bank says high oil and food prices and a prolonged slowdown in industrial countries are casting a shadow on the economic outlook.

亚洲开发银行预测，今后一年，亚洲发展中国家经济增长速度将放缓，通货膨胀率将升高。亚行说，高企的石油价格和食品价格以及工业化国家经济持续低迷，为亚洲经济前景蒙上了一层阴影。

The Asian Development Bank says risks to Asian economies are much higher today than it had predicted in its annual outlook in April. Ifzal Ali, the ADB's chief economist 1, says one of the biggest risks arises from uncertainties 2 about how long the financial crisis in the United States will last.

亚洲开发银行说，和今年4月发布的年度经济前景预测相比，亚洲经济现在面临的风险要高得多。亚行首席经济学家伊夫扎勒.阿里指出，最大的风险之一来自于人们不能确定美国的金融危机会持续多长时间。

Speaking in Hong Kong on Tuesday, he said the turmoil 3 on Wall Street in the past two days has added to the uncertainty 4.

阿里星期二在香港发表谈话时说，华尔街过去两天来的动荡更强化了这种不确定因素。

"And higher levels of uncertainty means greater volatility 5 and this will of course impact on levels of both business confidence and consumer confidence," said Ali.

阿里说：“更大的不确定性意味着更大的动荡，这当然会对企业和消费者的信心产生影响。”

Stock markets around the world have tumbled since the news late Sunday that the U.S. investment company Lehman Brothers would file for bankruptcy 6 and that other financial firms faced massive problems.

The ADB says growth across developing Asia will slow to 7.5 percent this year and 7.2 percent next year - down from a record nine percent rate in 2007. Inflation is predicted to reach 7.8 percent in the region this year.

亚洲开发银行说，亚洲发展中国家的经济增长今年会放缓到7.5%，明年为7.2%，都低于2007年创记录的9%。亚洲地区通货膨胀预计今年将达到7.8% 。

The outlook is clouded by persistently 7 high oil and food prices. The non-profit lender forecasts that the recent drop in oil prices will be short lived and that prices generally will remain above $100 a barrel until at least 2020. And even though prices of food staples 8 such as rice have fallen to more sustainable levels in recent months, the ADB says the problem is far from over as demand grows and supplies remain tight.

经济前景受到持续走高的石油和食品价格的影响。亚行预测说，最近石油价格的下跌只是临时性的， 至少在2020年之前，石油价格会保持在每桶100美元以上。虽然主要粮食价格如大米价格最近几个月已经下降到一个可以维持的水平，但是亚行说，问题还远远没有的到解决，因为需求还在增加，供给仍然紧张。

The situation is made worse by economic downturns in the United States and Europe, the main buyers of Asian goods. Most exports from the region are doing badly - be it garments, toys or computers.

美国和欧洲经济的下滑使亚洲地区的形势更加严峻，因为美欧是亚洲产品的主要购买方。不论是服装、玩具还是电脑，亚洲多数出口商业绩不佳。

For years, many international investors 9 bet that robust 10 growth in Asian economies would shelter them from weakness in the U.S. and Europe. Ali says that gamble has not paid off.

多年来，很多国际投资者都将赌注下在增长强劲的亚洲经济上，期盼以此来免受美欧经济疲软的影响。但分析人士阿里说，这笔赌注还没见收效。

"What happens in New York and London spills over into Asia within hours," he said. "One point that I would like to make loud and clear: the myth of decoupling has been exploded in the last eight months!"

他说：“纽约和伦敦的混乱几个小时就影响到了亚洲。有一点我要大声讲清楚：过去8个月来那种(可以与美欧经济)分离的迷思已经破裂了！”

Ali says there are a number of short-term policies governments in the region need to implement 11 to ride out the storm. They include bringing inflation to heel and phasing out unsustainable subsidies 12 for fuel, fertilizer and food. He says developing countries in Asia need to sacrifice growth now to avoid entrenched 13 inflation.

阿里说，亚洲国家政府可以采取一些短期政策来度过这场风暴。这些政策包括抑制通货膨胀，逐步取消对石油、化肥和食品的补贴。他说，亚洲发展中国家需要牺牲发展进度，防止陷入通货膨胀。