TED演讲：用前所未有的好方法诠释数字统计(3)-英语课

时间：2019-01-18 作者：英语课 分类：TED演讲教育篇

英语课

　　So this is what I could display here. 那么一起来看看。

　　I put fertility rate here: number of children per woman: one, two, three, four, up to about eight children per woman. X轴是生育率，每个妇女的育儿数，从每人1，2，3，4胎到8胎。
　　We have very good data since 1962 -- 1960 about -- on the size of families in all countries. The error margin 1 is narrow. 我们有1962年之后的各国家庭大小的可靠数据。数据误差相当小。
　　Here, I put life expectancy 2 at birth, from 30 years in some countries up to about 70 years. Y轴是平均寿命，从30岁到70岁不等。
　　And 1962, there was really a group of countries here that was industrialized countries, and they had small families and long lives. 1962年的时候，的确有一群国家在上面，这些是发达国家，他们家庭小，寿命长。
　　And these were the developing countries: they had large families and they had relatively 3 short lives. 而这些则是发展中国家，他们家庭大，寿命也相对短些。
　　Now, what has happened since 1962? We want to see the change. 从1962年到今天，世界有什么变化吗？我们来看看。
　　Are the students right? Is it still two types of countries? 学生们正确吗？国家还是分为2类吗?
　　Or have these developing countries got smaller families and they live here? 或者发展中国家的家庭变小（这些小球）移动到了左边?
　　Or have they got longer lives and live up there? 或者发展中国家人们的寿命变长（这些小球）移动到了上面?
　　Let's see. We stopped the world then. This is all U.N. statistics that have been available. Here we go. 让我们看一下。我们让世界停下来。这些数据都来自于联合国。
　　Can you see there? It's China there, moving against better health there, improving there. 大家看到没有？这个是中国，他们在往上移动，健康状况不断改善。
　　All the green Latin American countries are moving towards smaller families. 这些绿色的拉丁美洲国家正朝向小家庭的方向移动。
　　Your yellow ones here are the Arabic countries, and they get longer life, but not larger families. 这些黄色的小球是阿拉伯国家，寿命在变长但家庭规模不变。
　　The Africans are the green here. They still remain here. 非洲国家是下面的绿球，他们一直在下面。
　　This is India; Indonesia is moving on pretty fast. 这个是印度。印度尼西亚的移动速度非常快。
　　In the '80s here, you have Bangladesh still among the African countries. 80年代的时候，孟加拉国仍然和非洲国家在一起。
　　But now, Bangladesh -- it's a miracle that happens in the '80s: the moms start to promote family planning. 但是80年代的奇迹发生在孟加拉国，妈妈们开始宣传和普及计划生育。
　　They move up into that corner. 他们向左上角移动。
　　And in the '90s, we have the terrible HIV epidemic 4 that takes down the life expectancy of the African countries 90年代恐怖的艾滋病流行，导致非洲国家的平均寿命缩短，
　　and all the rest of them move up into the corner, where we have long lives and small family, and we have a completely new world. 而其他国家都向左上角移动，大家都有了长寿命和小家庭，而世界也焕然一新了。