意大利民粹主义威胁欧盟未来

 　　Europe’s fightback against populism was going well for a couple of hours.

　　欧洲对民粹主义的反击取得了几个小时的胜利。
　　On Sunday afternoon, it emerged that the far-right candidate had lost the Austrian presidential election.
　　上周日下午，有消息称，极右翼候选人在奥地利总统大选中折戟。
　　But the good news from Austria was drowned out by bad news that same evening, from the other side of the Alps.
　　但当晚来自阿尔卑斯山另一侧的的坏消息吞噬了奥地利的这个好消息。
　　Matteo Renzi, the Italian prime minister, had lost his referendum on constitutional reform and confirmed that he will resign.
　　意大利总理马泰奥.伦齐(Matteo Renzi)在宪法改革公投中失利，并证实他将辞职。
　　The consequences for Europe of Italy’s referendum result are not as obviously dramatic as those of Britain’s referendum in June.
　　意大利公投结果对欧洲造成的影响不像今年6月英国退欧公投那样引人注目。
　　The British voted to leave the EU.
　　英国人最终投票决定脱离欧盟(EU)。
　　The Italians have simply rejected some complex constitutional changes, which many experts regarded as ill conceived in the first place.
　　意大利人则反对一些复杂的宪法改革，很多专家认为这些改革从一开始就考虑不周。
　　And yet Brexit and the Renzi resignation do form part of the same story.
　　然而英国退欧和伦齐辞职却是同一个故事的一部分。
　　The European project is under unprecedented 1 strain.
　　欧洲一体化正面临空前压力。
　　Britain’s decision to leave is the most striking evidence of this.
　　英国决定脱欧就是最明显的证据。
　　But, in the long run, the unfolding crisis in Italy could pose a more severe threat to the survival of the EU.
　　但长期而言，意大利正在爆发的危机可能会给欧盟的生存带来更严重的威胁。
　　The reasons for this are political, economic and even geographic 2.
　　其原因有政治的、经济的、甚至地理的。
　　Italy, unlike Britain, is one of the six founding members of the EU.
　　与英国不同，意大利是欧盟6个创始成员国之一。
　　The original European Economic Community was founded through the Treaty of Rome, signed in 1957.
　　原来的欧洲经济共同体(European Economic Community)是通过1957年签订的《罗马条约》(Treaty of Rome)创建的。
　　While the British were always the most Eurosceptic of the big EU nations, the Italians were traditionally the most enthusiastic unifiers.
　　英国一直是欧盟大国中最疑欧的，但意大利传统上是最热情的统一者。
　　But attitudes to the EU in Italy have changed profoundly — in response to the country’s long economic stagnation 3, the euro crisis and fears over illegal migration 4.
　　但意大利对欧盟的态度发生了巨大变化，这是该国经济长期停滞、欧元危机以及对非法移民的担忧的结果。
　　It is hardly surprising that Italian voters are disillusioned 5 with the status quo.
　　意大利选民对现状感到失望，这毫不令人意外。
　　Italy has lost at least 25 per cent of its industrial production since the financial crisis of 2008.
　　自2008年金融危机以来，意大利工业产量至少萎缩了25%。
　　Youth unemployment stands at almost 40 per cent.
　　年轻人失业率维持在近40%的水平。
　　Unsurprisingly, many Italians associate the advent 6 of the euro with a near-depression.
　　难怪很多意大利人将欧元的问世与几近萧条联系在一起。
　　Indeed, some economists 7 believe the euro has been disastrous 8 for Italy’s competitiveness, taking away the tools of currency devaluation and creating a deflationary environment that increases the debt burden.
　　实际上，一些经济学家认为，欧元对于意大利的竞争力是灾难性的，它夺走了汇率贬值工具并创造了一个通缩环境，加重了债务负担。
　　Against this grim backdrop, it is possible that Mr Renzi will be one of the last Italian prime ministers to represent his country’s traditional pro-European stance.
　　在这种悲观背景下，伦齐有可能成为最后一批代表意大利传统亲欧立场的意大利总理之一。
　　Of late, even he had taken to Brussels-bashing — expressing understandable disillusionment with a lack of help with the hundreds of thousands of refugees landing on Italian shores.
　　最近，他甚至开始抨击欧盟——欧盟在解决抵达意大利海岸的数十万难民问题上没有提供帮助，他对此表达了可以理解的失望。
　　The Renzi government has also chafed 9 against the economic austerity prescribed in Berlin and Brussels.
　　伦齐政府还对德国和欧盟提出的经济紧缩方案感到愤怒。
　　Nonetheless, Mr Renzi remained basically pro-European.
　　然而，从根本上来说，伦齐仍是亲欧的。
　　That is not true of the opposition 10 parties that are now waiting in the wings.
　　而蠢蠢欲动的反对党派则不是这样。
　　The Five Star Movement, led by comedian 11 Beppe Grillo, played a prominent role in defeating Mr Renzi.
　　由喜剧演员贝佩.格里洛(Beppe Grillo)领导的五星运动党(Five Star Movement)在击败伦齐方面发挥了突出作用。
　　Five Star is adamant 12 in its demand that Italy regain 13 sovereignty from Brussels and has proposed a referendum on leaving the euro.
　　该党坚决要求意大利应从欧盟那里夺回主权，并提出就脱离欧元区举行公投。
　　Mr Grillo also sees his movement as part of a general anti-establishment wave across the west and hailed the victory of Donald Trump 14 in the US as a triumph over the Freemasons, huge banking 15 groups and the Chinese.
　　格里洛还把他领导的运动视为一场席卷西方的反建制普遍浪潮的一部分，并称赞唐纳德.特朗普(Donald Trump)赢得美国总统大选是对共济会(freemason)、银行大集团以及中国的胜利。
　　The reasons that Italian populism may ultimately threaten the EU even more profoundly than Brexit are not simply to do with Italy’s traditional commitment to the European ideal.
　　意大利民粹主义对欧盟的威胁可能最终会超过英国退欧，其原因不仅仅是与意大利一直以来对欧洲理想的承诺有关。
　　Also crucial is the fact that Italy uses the euro while Britain has kept its own currency.
　　同样重要的是，意大利使用欧元，而英国保留自己的货币。
　　So, while Brexit is a painful and complicated business, it does not directly threaten the survival of the single currency — or risk unleashing 16 a financial crisis.
　　因此，尽管英国脱欧是痛苦且复杂的，但不会直接威胁到欧元的生存，也不会引发一场金融危机。
　　However, the chain of events set off by Mr Renzi’s referendum defeat could potentially do both.
　　然而，伦齐公投失败引发的一连串事件可能会造成这两种结果。
　　The immediate 17 danger is to the Italian banking system.
　　眼下的危险是对意大利银行业体系的威胁。
　　In the new atmosphere of crisis, the proposed recapitalisation of troubled lenders — in particular Monte dei Paschi di Siena — is threatened.
　　在新的危机气氛中，拟议的对境况不佳银行的资本重组（特别是西雅那银行(Monte dei Paschi di Siena)）面临危险。
　　That could lead to demands for state bailouts, which will be difficult given that the state is already heavily indebted.
　　这可能引发政府纾困的请求，鉴于意大利政府已背负沉重的债务，纾困将非常困难。
　　Revived worries about the size of Italy’s debt could then frighten investors 18, driving up interest rates and threatening the solvency 19 of the Italian state itself.
　　再度产生的对于意大利债务规模的担忧可能会让投资者感到恐慌，这将推升利率并威胁意大利政府自己的偿付能力。
　　It would be much harder to organise 20 an EU bailout of Italy than it was to rescue Greece.
　　与救助希腊相比，组织一场欧盟对意大利的纾困将困难得多。
　　Given the size of the economy, the amounts of money involved could be far larger — which would probably trigger a political revolt in the German parliament, particularly with parliamentary elections due there next September.
　　鉴于意大利经济的规模，纾困涉及的资金规模要大得多，这可能会引来德国议会的政治抗议，尤其是在明年9月德国将举行议会选举的情况下。
　　At that point, the break-up of the euro would once again become a very real prospect 21.
　　到那时，欧元解体可能会再次成为一种非常切实的可能。
　　Set against this is the Italian talent for muddling 22 through politically and economically while always avoiding ultimate collapse 23.
　　不过，意大利具有一种在政治和经济上得过且过又总能避免最终垮台的天分。
　　The EU seems to have developed something of the same talent over the long years of the euro crisis.
　　在多年的欧元危机中，欧盟似乎也培养出了这种天分。
　　Yet even if Italy manages to patch together a new government and avoid a banking crisis, the broader picture is still bleak 24.
　　然而，即便意大利成功组建新政府并规避银行业危机，更广泛的前景仍然悲观。
　　Its economy is stagnating 25 and its political centre is disintegrating 26.
　　意大利经济仍在停滞，其政治中心正在瓦解。
　　Nationalists and populists are also on the rise in EU countries including Spain, Poland, France and the Netherlands.
　　此外，民族主义者和民粹主义者也正在其他欧盟国家崛起，包括西班牙、波兰、法国和荷兰。
　　Britain has promised to submit its formal notification of its decision to leave the EU next March.
　　英国承诺将于明年3月递交其正式退欧决定通知。
　　That same month, the union’s leaders are meant to gather in Italy to celebrate the 60th anniversary of the signature of the Treaty of Rome.
　　同一个月，欧盟领导人将在意大利聚首，庆祝《罗马条约》签订60周年。
　　At this rate, it will be more of a wake than a party.
　　按照当前的事态发展，那将更像是一场葬礼前的守夜，而非聚会。