TED演讲:一项关于电动车的大胆计划(7)

 And the second one was the San Francisco Bay Area where Gavin Newsom created a beautiful policy across all the mayors. 第二个地方便是旧金山市湾区。在所有的市长当中，Gavin Newsom精心设计了一个政策方案。

He decided 1 that he's going to take over the state, 他决定要掌管整个加利福尼亚州，
unofficially, and then officially, and then created this beautiful Region One policy. 非正式的，然后正式的，然后设置这个叫"1号地区"的政策。
In the San Francisco Bay Area not only do you have the highest concentration of Priuses, 在旧金山市湾区，你不但有最高密度的丰田双动力车Priuses，
but you also have the perfect range extender. It's called the other car. 而且你有最完善的范围扩大设置。这个被称为另类的车。
Now as we stared scaling it up we looked at what is the problem to come up to the U.S.? Why is this a big issue? 正当我们开始扩大这个方案，我们研究了美国所面临的问题。为什么这是一个重要的问题？
And the most fascinating thing we've learned is that, 我们所见过的最有趣的是，
when you have small problems on the individual level, like the price of gasoline to drive every morning. 当个人有些小问题时，像每天的汽油价格这种事，你并不太注意。
You don't notice it, but when the aggregate 2 comes up you're dead. Alright? 可是当问题聚集起来，那可麻烦了。是吧？
So the price of oil, much like lots of other curves that we've seen, goes along a depletion 3 curve. 所以油价，就像我们见过的其他曲线一样，沿着一个耗尽曲线发展。
The foundation of this curve is that we keep losing the wells that are close to the ground. 这个曲线建立在我们逐渐失去接近地下的油井的基础上。
And we keep getting wells that are farther away from the ground. 然后我们便不停的开发离地下越来越远的油井。
It becomes more and more and more expensive to dig them out. 这样的油井最后变得越来越贵去开发。
You think, well it's been up, it's been down, its been up, it's going to keep on going up and down. 你想想，油价上涨过，下调过，再上涨过，而且会一直上下变动。
Here is the problem: at 147 dollars a barrel, which we were in six months ago, the U.S. spent a ton of money to get oil. 问题在此：六个月前，原油价高立在147美元一桶，美国购买石油，花费不少。
Then we lost our economy and we went back down to 47 -- sometimes it's 40, sometimes it's 50. 然后美国经济崩溃，原油价下调到47美元一桶。有时是40美元，有时是50美元。
Now we're running a stimulus 4 package. It's called the trillion-dollar stimulus package. 现在我们的政府正实行一个经济刺激计划。一个所谓万亿美元的刺激计划。
We're going to revive the economy. Hopefully it happens between now and 2015, somewhere in that space. 我们意图使经济复苏，希望2015年之前发生，大概在这个时间段里。
What happens when the economy recovers? 那当经济复苏时，社会将变成什么样？
By 2015 we would have had at least 250 million new cars even at the pace we're going at right now. 在2015年前，我们至少将有2.5亿辆新车，就算我们按现有的汽车增加率计算。
That's another 30 percent demand on oil. That is another 25 million barrels a day. 那意味着原油需求将上涨百分之30。那时还要增加两千五百万桶的原油。
That's all the U.S. usage today. In other words at some point when we've recovered we go up to the peak. 即美国现在的原油消耗量。这就是说当我们经济复苏时，我们将到达原油需求的高峰点。
And then we do the OPEC stimulus package also known as 200 dollars a barrel. 然后我们来实行OPEC刺激计划，也被称为200美元一桶原油。
We take our money and we give it away. You know what happens at that point? 我们把我们的资金都用在原油上面。你知道到了那个程度，什么会发生吗？
We go back down. It's going to go up and down. 我们的经济会下调。它会一直不断上下浮动。
And the downs are going to be much longer and the ups are going to be much shorter. 并且，下调的时间会越来越长，上升的时间会越来越短。