VOA双语新闻 --- 美经济减缓会使印度经济增长减慢

In India, questions are being raised over how a possible economic downturn in the United States will impact India's fast-growing economy. India's economy is expected to slow down slightly, but continue to grow at a healthy pace in the coming year.

在印度，人们提出了美国经济可能出现的减缓将对印度高速增长的经济产生什么影响的问题。预计，印度的经济会稍微减慢，但是在今后的一年时间里会继续以健康的步伐增长。



Four years ago, retired 1 army officer, Rakesh Dhir, invested a large chunk 2 of his savings 3 in the Indian stock market.

4年前，退休军官拉克什.迪尔把他很大一部分的储蓄都投资在印度股市上。



His investments multiplied rapidly as the market grew by an average of more than 40 per cent a year, prompting him to put more money into stocks.

随著股市平均每年以40%多的速度增长，他的投资很快就翻了几番。



Dhir, like millions of other middle class investors 4, was optimistic that the stock market would continue to flourish in an economy that has been growing at a rate of more than eight percent since 2003.

像数以百万计其他中产阶级的投资人一样，迪尔乐观地认为，在一个自从2003年以来一直以8%以上的速度增长的经济里，股市会继续繁荣。



But in January, the Mumbai stock index, the Sensex, plunged 5 along with other Asian markets, amid fears of a global economic downturn sparked by a possible recession in the United States. In the weeks since, stunned 6 investors have seen the Sensex lose more than 20 per cent from its peak earlier this year.

但是在1月，由于美国可能出现的衰退引发全球经济下滑的担忧，孟买证券交易所同亚洲其他股市一样出现大幅度的下跌。在那以后的几个星期，投资人大为震惊地看到Sensex指数比今年早些时候的高峰下跌了20%多。



The stock market's volatility 7 has triggered concerns among people like Dhir about how hard India will be hit by a potential slowdown in the West.

股市的动荡使迪尔这些人担忧西方可能出现的经济减缓将对印度带来多大的冲击。



"Hearing stories about recession in the West, I keep wondering whether I should stay invested in the stock market or not. It keeps me awake nights," said Dhir.

他说：“我在听到有关西方国家经济衰退的报导时，我就一直在想，我是否应该继续投资于股市。这使我晚上睡不着。”



Economists 8 are trying to calm such fears. Saumitra Chaudhuri, is a member of the Economic Advisory 9 Council to the Prime Minister. He says a potential U.S. recession will have only a moderate impact on economic growth in India.

经济学家试图平息这种担忧。乔杜里是印度总理经济顾问委员会的成员。他说，美国经济可能出现的衰退只会对印度的经济增长带来温和的影响。



"There will be some impact, however the direct impact from a United States slowdown is not very large, because the bulk of the Indian economy still caters 10 to meeting domestic demand, not export demand," he said.

他说：“会有些影响，但是，美国经济的减缓所带来的直接影响不会很大，因为印度经济的大部分仍然是用来满足国内需求，而不是出口的需求。”



India's domestic demand comes from its 50 million-strong middle class. Their growing incomes have fueled purchases of automobiles 11, mobile phones and homes, and contributed to rapid businesses growth.

印度的国内需求来自于5000多万中产阶级。他们日益增加的收入推动了汽车、手机和住房的销售，而且促进了商业的快速发展。



However, economists warn that consumer demand will not be as buoyant as it was in previous years - primarily because rising inflation in the past year has prompted the government to raise interest rates.

然而，经济学家警告说，消费者需求将不像前几年那样强劲，主要是因为过去一年来日益上涨的通货膨胀促使政府提高利率。



Chaudhuri warns that more expensive credit could mean less spending.

乔杜里警告说，成本更高的信贷可能意味著消费的减少。



"Prices of all kinds of goods, particularly food and commodities are going through the roof," he said. "When you have a very high inflationary situation, inflationary pressure, it is likely that the action you might take to reduce that inflationary potential from being realized would actually slow the economy down a bit more."

他说：“各种东西，尤其是食品和商品的价格都扶摇直上。在出现很高的通货膨胀的情况下，为了减少通胀可能造成实际后果而采取的行动，实际上可能会使经济发展减慢一些。”



The government says it expects the economy to expand at 8.7 per cent in the coming year, compared to 9.6 per cent a year ago.

印度政府表示，它预计经济在今后一年会以8.7%的速度扩张，而一年前国内生产总值的涨幅是9.6%。



For investors looking for clues about the stock market, the decrease may be disheartening. But India is still expected to rank among the world's fastest growing economies.

对于那些希望知道股市是涨还是跌的投资人来说，这种减速可能会使他们感到沮丧。但是印度预计仍然可以被列为世界上增长最快的经济体之一。