经济学人239:美国中期选举 沉寂的中间地带

 　　America's mid-term elections

　　美国中期选举
　　The silent centre
　　沉寂的中间地带
　　If moderates don't vote next week, extremists will thrive
　　如果中立人士于下周不进行选举，极端主义者将会茁壮发展
　　ALL political campaigns involve a certain amount of looking voters straight in the eye and lying to them. But America's mid-term election campaign has involved more flim-flam than most. The Republicans, if you believe Democratic attack ads, oppose equal pay for women, want to ban contraception and just love it when big corporations ship American jobs overseas. The Democrats 1, according to Republicans, have stood idly by as Islamic State terrorists—possibly carrying Ebola—prepare to cross the southern border. And they, too, are delighted to see American jobs shipped overseas.
　　所有的政治活动都包含了一定数量的撒谎现象，但是美国中期的选举活动已经包含了比大多情况下更多的欺骗。如果你相信民主党发出的具有攻击性的广告所说的:共和党们反对妇女同工同酬，想要废止避孕法，并且大企业将美国的工作机会扩展到海外。据共和党反映，民主党派对可能对带有伊波拉病毒企图跨越美国南部边境的伊斯兰国家恐怖分子置之不理。同时，和共和党一样，他们也同样希望看到美国的工作机会流往海外。
　　美国中期选举.jpg
　　Only a blinkered partisan 2 would believe any of these charges. Alas 3, partisans 4 are far more likely than anyone else to vote, especially in elections like this one, where the presidency 5 is not up for grabs.
　　只有狭隘的党派会相信任何这些控告。哎，这些党派相比其他人更愿意行使投票的权利，尤其是类似于总统选举这样的选举活动，其中总统的职位并不是待价而沽的。
　　A survey by the Pew Research Centre finds that 73% of “consistently conservative” Americans are likely to cast a ballot 6 on November 4th, along with 58% of consistent liberals. Among those with “mixed” views, however, only 25% are likely to bother. That, in a nutshell, is why both parties are pandering 7 to the extremes. Their strategy relies less on wooing swing voters than on firing up their own side to get out and vote. Often, this involves telling them scare stories about the other lot. The same Pew poll finds that dislike of the other party is one of the strongest incentives 8 to vote. Republicans with a “very unfavourable” view of Democrats are far more likely to turn out, as are Democrats who loathe 9 Republicans. With Barack Obama in the White House Republicans are angrier than Democrats, and that is one reason why they are expected to win. Most polls say they will capture the Senate and hold onto the House of Representatives.
　　一项由皮尤组织（一个美国无党派人士组建的组织。它提供一些客观的美国乃至世界范围内的公众信息。 民意调查，社会科学调查。 它会回馈一些相关新闻，并解读调查中包含的重要数据信息。但是它没有任何的政治地位，也就是说非官方的。）发起的调查报告发现“一贯保守”的美国人中有73%的民众更愿意在11月4日投上自己宝贵的一票，而一贯的自由者也愿意在这一天投上自己的选票。在这些民众中带有综合观点的民众，仅仅只有25%的民众愿意行使投票的权利。简而言之，这也就是两大政党迎合极端主义的缘由。相比拉拢摇摆不定的选民，政党们更愿意拉动倾向于自己的民众为本政党投票。往往，这就包括给这些民众们讲讲自己对立党派恐怖的故事。同样一个皮尤组织的民意测验记录表明，不喜欢另外一个党派可以成为民众投票的最强动机。共和党拥有民主党所述的很不利的一方面，到最后会使得讨厌共和党的人选择民主党。属于民主党的美国现总统奥巴马使得共和党比民主党更加愤懑，这也是为什么共和党更加期待于赢得总统的选举。大部分的民意测验表明共和党将努力获取参议院和众议院的支持。
　　America's cycle of polarisation and alienation 10 is self-reinforcing. As the debate grows shriller, moderates tune 11 out. Politicians come to rely more and more on the votes of die-hard partisans, so they say and do more extreme things, alienating 12 yet more moderates. Most members of Congress are more frightened of being tossed out by their own party's primary voters—typically for the heresy 13 of compromise—than they are of losing an election to the other party.
　　极端化和疏远的美国系统圈正呈增强趋势。正如辩论变得更为尖锐，温和派选择退出。政客们越来越倾向于游击队似的选票，所以他们说出和作出更为极端的事情，以至于疏远了更多的温和派。大部分议会的成员更加害怕被本党的基层选民抛掷出局—尤其出现妥协的异端—这比他们输给了另一党派的选票更令人恐惧。
　　America's electoral system needs reform. It is too late to change the rules before this election, however, so it is up to moderates to walk to a polling booth and be counted. To those who grumble 14 that there is no point voting because they don't like any of the candidates, we offer two counter-arguments.
　　美国的竞选系统需要进行改革。现在更改竞选规则已经为时过晚，然而，这就更加地依赖于温和派前往投票点进行投票并参与票数的记录。对于因为不喜欢任何一位候选人而怪罪于没有投票点可以投票的人们，我们提供两个反驳的观点。
　　Speak now, or be ignored
　　为自己发声，或是选择被忽视
　　First, these elections matter. Control of the United States Congress—the body that writes the laws and holds the purse strings 15 of the most important nation on Earth—is at stake. (So are 36 out of 50 state governorships and thousands of local offices—see article.) Individually, it may be rational not to vote: one ballot is unlikely to affect the outcome. But when whole groups stay at home—centrists, young people and non-whites spring to mind—their interests will be ignored.
　　首先，这些选举意义重大。掌握了美国国会—这一制定法律并且掌管地球上最为重要的国家财政大权的国会—是十分关键的。（50个州长以及千万个当地办事处所选出的36个议员同样也十分关键—见文章。）单独来看，这可能是不够理性的投票：一张选票并不会影响选举的结果。但当中间派、年轻人以及非白人种族都选择放弃选举，那么他们的利益将会被忽略。
　　Explore our map and guide to the 2014 mid-term senate races
　　查询我们的地图，并且参看2014中期参议院选举
　　Second, politicians are more sophisticated than they appear on the stump 16. Many are secretly embarrassed by the flame-grilled drivel they have to serve up to partisan audiences. Plenty hanker for the days when divided government meant that the centrists in both parties hammered out reforms together and ignored the frothing fringes. But all of them can count votes—very accurately 17, these days. And all tend to reward their supporters: to “dance with the ones that brung them”, as the saying goes. So if moderate Americans want to influence how their government taxes, spends, regulates and wages war, they should tick a box next week.
　　第二点是，政客们比他们从事政治演说更为老练。很多政客私下为自己那些准备兜售给强硬支持的观众们天花乱坠的言论感到尴尬。大家对于当年分裂的政府准备将党派中的中间分子集合起来共同商定改革事宜而忽略其存在的空隙和差距的日子充满了渴望。但是所有的人都可以计入到投票数里—很精确的是这些天的投票都会计入到投票数中。所有的政客倾向于报答自己的支持者：正如俗话说的“和带你来的人一起共舞”。所以如果中间派的美国人想要对自己国家的税收、花费存在影响，规范美国对外战争，那他们就得下个星期去投票了。