经济学人244:国会与总统 对峙

 　　Congress and the president

　　国会与总统
　　Face-off
　　对峙
　　Anyone hoping for an outbreak of good government is likely to be disappointed
　　想要一个良好政府的人们恐要大失所望
　　SPEAKING at the White House after a stinging mid-term defeat, Barack Obama adopted a conciliatory tone. “Both parties,” he said, “are going to have to come together and compromise to get something done here.” Mitch McConnell, the Republican leader in the Senate, agreed, adding that he hoped the president would work with Republicans on spending, energy and trade agreements. “The question,” said Senator McConnell, “is how do we meet in the middle?” That was in November 2010. There followed a government shutdown, two flirtations with a sovereign default over the raising of the legal limit on government borrowing, and the least productive Congress since anyone began counting.
　　谈起白宫中期大选惨败收局，布拉克·奥巴马采用一种调和的语调，说：“两党将合力协作，通过作出妥协，完成一些事宜。”参议院共和党领袖米奇·麦康内尔表示赞同，并补充道他希望总统可以和共和党就经费、能源、贸易协议问题共同努力。“问题在于，我们如何实现折中妥协？”麦康内尔议员说道。那还要追溯到2010年的11月。当时政府停摆, 两党因提高政府借贷上限造成的债务违约已经闹得面红耳赤，而且那时候任何人都期望国会有点起码的效用。
　　国会与总统.jpg
　　The president and Mr McConnell once again made similar pronouncements about working together after another disastrous 2 mid-term election for the Democrats 3 on November 4th. Those who believe that this time will be different argue that divided government works better when Congress is wholly controlled by one party and the presidency 4 by the other. When the House and the Senate are in the hands of different parties, according to this line of thinking, it is too easy for one to blame the other for intransigence 5 and avoid governing.
　　继11月4日民主党损失惨重的中期选举后，总统和麦康内尔先生就合力协作事宜再一次发表类似声明。认为这次会有所不同的人们争辩道，当控制国会的党派和总统所属的党派不同时，分立政府可以工作地更好。按照这种思维模式思考的话，如果白宫和参议院为不同党派所控制，那么要将不妥协的责任推脱给另外一方并且避开管理，那就太容易了。
　　Before this idea is tested by the new Congress in January, there is a lame-duck session to finish. These sessions of Congress are typically productive when compared with the healthy-duck sort. Because the budget process pushes controversial decisions towards the end of the year, a disproportionate number of important votes on spending will fall in a session where 12 senators (or 13, if Mary Landrieu loses a run-off in Louisiana on December 6th) will not have to face the voters again and can therefore smooth their passage. In 2010 the expiring Senate allowed gay people to serve openly in the military, ratified 7 a treaty on nuclear missiles with Russia and extended some tax cuts.
　　在这个观点被新国会一月份验证之前，美国正面临“跛脚鸭会期”。与“健康鸭会期”相比，这个时期特别“多产”。因为预算草案将会推动富有争议性的决议至今年年底。而且在这个时期就政府开销问题统计所得投票——不成比例的重要数据——将会失败，届时会有12位议员（或者13位，如果兰德里欧在12月6日失去路易斯安那州的连任）将无须再次面对选民，因此顺利通过。在2010年，奄奄一息的参议院曾允许同性恋人群公开服兵役，并获准了参与与俄国的核导弹、扩展了一些减税措施。
　　Funding the government past December 11th, the deadline to avoid another shutdown, should be straightforward 8. The confirmation 9 of the 35 ambassadors and 16 judicial 10 nominees 12 currently before the Senate will be harder. In 2008 Democrats held a series of pretend sessions to prevent George W. Bush from making appointments while the chamber 13 was in recess 14. Republicans may now try a similar wheeze 15; the Senate cannot go into recess without the agreement of the Republican-controlled House. Such shifty manoeuvres are now all too common.
　　资助政府度过12月11日—避免下一次政府停摆的最后期限—应该是简单明确的。要在参议院之前确定35名大使和16名司法提名候选人将难上加难。在2008年，议院休会，民主党假装采取了一系列举措来阻止小布什做下承诺。共和党现在也许邯郸学步，但若没有被共和党控制的国会之同意，参议院就无法休会。像这样诡诈的手段现在实属家常便饭。
　　Congress may give the president fast-track authority to negotiate foreign-trade deals. And there are other areas where Mr Obama and Republican leaders agree. Both sides want to lower America's high taxes on companies, which contribute to the parking of just over $2 trillion of profits overseas. Agreement may not lead anywhere: a sensible corporate-tax reform would lower rates and close loopholes; if done properly, it would mean a tax increase for those firms that now benefit from exemptions 16. Since most Republican members of the House have signed a pledge to voters never to raise taxes, this will be a hard sell.
　　国会也许会给总统洽谈外贸事宜开绿灯。而且奥巴马先生和共和党领导人在一些领域仍达成共识。双方都想降低美国公司的高额税收，如此一来，将获得海外超过2万亿美元的利润。双方的意见一致并不涵盖所有领域：一个合理企业税收改革制度可以降低利率、修补漏洞；如果合理执行，对那些从免税额中获利的公司来说，意味着税收增加。因为国会里大多数共和党向选民们保证，绝不增加税收，这样一来，政府将推行强卖政策。
　　A more straightforward, though less important, change is likely when the new Senate takes up the Hire More Heroes bill, which the House has already passed and will revive in January. This would allow companies to hire veterans whose health care is covered by the Department of Veterans Affairs, without them counting towards the overall headcount for the purposes of the Affordable 18 Care Act. Under that law, all firms with 50 or more full-time 19 staff must provide them with health cover.
　　若新的议会实行“雇佣更多英雄”的法案，而这些已经被白宫通过了、且将在一月复兴，那么一个更加明确直接但不那么重要的变化有可能会发生。这样一来，公司便可以雇佣老兵，这些老兵的卫生保健被退伍军人事部承包了，若不将老兵算在内，那总员工人数将达不到“支付得起的医疗保险”。依据这项法律，全公司上下超过50名全职员工（包含50名）必须获得医疗保险。
　　The way this bill works with Obamacare suggests that House Republicans know the law itself is not going away. (A bill to repeal 20 it may find its way to the president's desk, but he would veto it.) A second likely tweak will be to repeal Obamacare's 2.3% tax on medical devices, which will slightly increase the deficit 21 but not affect the way the health law works. Republicans will also try to change the definition of full-time work, which triggers an employer's obligation to provide insurance, from 30 hours a week to something lengthier 22.
　　这项法案和奥巴马医改行之有效的方式，显示，国会里的共和党人深知法律并未失效。（废除医改的法案也许最终会出现在总统的桌子上，但总统会否决。）第二个可能变化就是废除奥巴马医改中医疗设备的2.3%税收，此举将会稍微增加赤字，但不会影响卫生法实施。共和党也将努力重新定义全职工作——具体时长为一周30个小时—这也将激发员工义务购买保险。
　　Mr McConnell may attach things that the president would rather avoid to proposals with broad support. Approval of the Keystone XL pipeline 23, which would carry crude oil from Canada's tar 6 sands to refineries 24 on the Gulf 25 coast, fits this description. But no compromise seems likely over global warming. The president wants to do something about it, as his tentative deal with China this week shows (see article). Most Republicans do not; Mr McConnell campaigned partly on rescuing his state's coal mines from federal bullying 26.
　　麦康奈尔先生也许会偏好总统避而远之而有支持率高的议案。基斯顿输油管发展计划的批准符合麦康奈尔的口味，这项计划将加拿大焦油砂的原油运输到墨西哥区域的精炼厂。但是一旦涉及全球变暖问题，似乎无法做出任何让步。总统对此有所想法，因为他本周与中国达成临时协议（见文章）。大部分共和党人不想如此；麦康奈尔先生竞选的部分理由是从联邦的欺凌下挽救他所在州的煤矿。
　　Where are the new faces?
　　新面孔在哪里？
　　The new Senate will have to vet 17 the president's appointments. The most pressing of these is a new attorney-general. The president has nominated Loretta Lynch, a federal prosecutor 27, to take over from Eric Holder 28. Ms Lynch, who has a Harvard law degree, is well qualified 29 for the job. She also has a remarkable 30 family story: her great-great-grandfather, a free black, fell in love with a slave and, unable to buy her freedom, became enslaved again so he could marry her. Ms Lynch's grandfather, a pastor 31, helped blacks escape from the organised racism 32 of Jim Crow states. These qualifications should see her confirmed, but her nomination 33 hearing is likely to get caught up in a fight over immigration. The president has repeated a threat to use his executive power to slow the deportation 34 of illegal immigrants—though he has yet to reveal how exactly he will do this. Senators Ted 1 Cruz of Texas and Mike Lee of Utah have promised to press his nominee 11 on whether such a move would be legal.
　　新的参议院将不得不审视总统的任期。最压抑的地方就是新司法部长。总统已经任命林奇联邦检察官接任艾瑞克·霍尔德。林奇女士，拥有哈佛法学学位，完全能够胜任此职。她家世值得称赞：她的曾曾曾祖父是一名自由黑人，和一名奴隶相爱，但因无法帮爱人赎身，就再次成为奴隶，最后共结连理。林奇女士的祖父是一位牧师，曾帮助黑人逃脱组织性极强的黑人州。这些都可视其为最佳人选，但是她的提名听证会极有可能会陷入移民争辩中。总统一再强调利用自己的管理权限放缓对非法移民的驱逐行动——尽管他还没展现他的权利到底还有多大。议员泰德·科鲁兹和犹他州的麦克·李已经许诺将逼迫他提名，不管这样的举动是否违法。
　　After his party's drubbing in the mid-terms, Mr Obama might be expected to reshuffle his team. Yet he shows no sign of doing so. Several cabinet members are newish and unlikely to be turfed out yet. Since Rahm Emanuel left in 2010, no chief of staff has lasted much more than a year. The president will be in no rush to get rid of the current one, Denis McDonough. One adviser 35 whose importance is likely to grow is John Podesta, who was Bill Clinton's chief of staff when Republicans controlled Congress in the 1990s. He helped the two sides work together productively, despite the impeachment 36 battle.
　　继民主党在中期大选中落败，奥巴马先生也许会重新改组他的团队。但却不见迹象。几名内阁成员是初出茅庐，而且还未“穿戴整齐”。自拉姆·伊曼纽尔2010年离开，继任的参谋长无一例外地任期不过一年。而总统也不着急寻辞退现任者丹尼斯·麦克多诺。咨询师约翰·斯塔的影响力与日俱增，20世纪90年代当共和党控制国会时，他曾是比尔·克林顿的参谋长。虽经弹劾斗争，但他依旧帮助两方合力协作，富有成效。
　　Many in Washington were hoping that Valerie Jarrett, Mr Obama's closest confidant, might move. Her vast influence, vague job description and lack of policy expertise 37 infuriate Democrats and Republicans alike; but she will probably stay put. The president trusts her, and the mid-terms have made his job lonelier than ever.
　　华盛顿许多人都曾希望奥巴马的亲信Valerie Jarrett离开。她广泛的影响力、模糊的工作经历以及缺乏政策技能，都惹怒民主党和共和党。但她有可能会屹立不倒。总统相信她，而且中期大选使得他的工作越发的孤单。